Member Info for TrekMadone

Added 7k at 75 and a bit. Got my average down again. Hoping for a bounce soon to recycle as didn’t time last ones as well.

I agree with the debt run off. December from memory clears a big one.

The sp like many others is suffering from the ‘higher for longer’ narrative. Markets should soon accommodate that.

At least it’s not an increase!

SOFR has held 5.31% average albeit up every so slightly on longer term.

We could do with just clearing a note and letting the market know.

Can’t think of any other play that they haven’t already done. I am not a fan of a divi cut as that’s their mo.

Usual caveats

Trek

Gone from 11.26 to 9.97.

Don’t know why they have reduced at this time. Hope more news later.

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Trek

“Does anyone understand what the last RNS is about? some sort of £5 billion note”

They have just incorporated the last results and presentations as a supplementary prospectus into the June euro note prospectus.

The detail is here and use of proceeds is a single line on page 260! Lol!

https://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/5723E_1-2023-6-30.pdf

Talk about legal bunkum! It’s mostly over the top legal jargon!

Perhaps because this hasn’t closed yet its having a pull on the sp within the ‘higher for longer’ narrative. Who knows!

I have nearly bought back the ones I sold pre x divi! Delighted to get next lot cheaper!

Usual caveats

Trek

Hi Tyke,

“ I don’t know if Trek has had any better luck asking Mike questions recently. “

Not had a reply to my last email. Tbh not really expecting one now. I think sometimes directors deliberately don’t engage if someone is fishing.

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Trek

This is the only change I can see from the records tab…

“ Drug: Gallium maltolate (recommended phase 2 dose)”

I can’t tell what the recommendation is though. Bit if my interpretation is correct then there should be a recommendation report later.

Usual caveats

Trek

Hi Jiffy,

“ Will they ramp up the BB's, who knows?‘

I think we have all landed in a place where we think the BB has turned out to be ‘strategical’. That was unlikely the intent at the time the decision was made as that would be disingenuous which does not align with my experience of DEC. Especially with their transparency. Everything is there in the open if folk look. How it’s interpreted is the debate.

Anyways I think they have other uses for the cash. Hopefully a deal is being worked through, hence the extra liquidity and asset sale. These things take time and a backdrop of rising gas prices and a dearth of quality for sale strengthens the sellers position.

It’s interesting to note that the FCA are now focusing on private equity where IFRS write downs following rate changes and asset depreciation has not been as forthcoming as in the private sector. This has caught one of my holdings PHNX off guard, a buyer of private funds; my point is it will be prevalent in the private O&G sector. So DEC would need to be very diligent on the private sector acquisition front. Or indeed use that knowledge and impending pain for the seller to their advantage.

Got 3k more at 81 and a bit this morning. Run out of ammo now!

Figured the SP may rise once folk get their divi cash.

At 85.184 average I am better than evens now when my divi lands. My TA which is as much a wet finger as science indicates a rise to 85p soon. Run up to November xd seems likely.

Other than a big spike which would trigger a sell order or a flash dip the other way I may now hold as it’s nice to get the income for New year. Still having a think as the volatility affords so much opportunity.

The FTSE has offered imo a chance in a lifetime of high yield. I trade PHNX as well and it’s divi is 3x covered now! It’s also a bi- annual 50/50 which I like.

There are two shorts on the stock which imo are presenting a tremendous opportunity for PI’s to get over 10% yield on yet another stock suffering an IFRS ‘write down’ against rising profits and organic + M&A growth. The market just doesn’t understand it! Bonkers!

It’ll soon catch up though. You watch!

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Trek

Grabbed 4k more at the bell agreeing that the intimated pOO rise and stability will feedback to SP.

I guess it’s offset by macro/china growth but surely Nigeria is a bottomless pit for energy!

Hoping for a run into results to give a cushion for 130.

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Trek

Reckon I nailed it again.. 81.0375 with the spread for 10k ready to offload.

My average now starts at 85p! Happy days.

Will recycle again once BB takes us up.

Gas at 2.95, yes I know we are hedged but no one understands that so can’t have it both ways! Lol!

Usual caveats

Trek

Up 10% probable been posted….

“ Noble Helium: Rig up underway at Mbelele-1, North Rukwa Project

Noble Helium (ASX:NHE) reports that rig-up of Marriott Rig #16 is approaching the final stages at the Company’s North Rukwa Helium Project in Tanzania. In response, Noble Helium CEO and Co-Founder, Mr Justyn Wood, said: “We are applying over 20 years of very successful exploration experience throughout the East African Rift system to pinpoint locations for its accumulation in the subsurface – it is coming together and we are extremely confident.” Shares are trading 8.11 per cent higher at 20 cents.”

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2023/09/28/stocks-of-the-hour-lake-resources-latin-resources-noble-helium-lithium-universe/

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Trek

Could sell 15k couldn’t buy 1k just now! Bonkers.

Averaging back in those sold only below xd price.

Usual caveats

Trek

That’s the problem with many PI’s IMO.

This market is not really an in or out market. You are either genuinely in the buffet camp in which case DEC wouldn’t fit his mo. Go loose money on ULVR or you have to hold for way more than 5 years.

Even then guess what.. if you look at most ftse100/250 Charts stock are actually lower now than they were 5 years ago. Forget the index it’s a twist if mcap math!

You have to be more active to make money in this market or not to loose as much. So either go for funds/ETF’s. Whoops many are also down esp after charges or you have to hold and trade and even then that doesn’t always work!

For sure the bs posted here by a few shows me that many have no idea what they are on about. And just cos the sp is down doesn’t validate some of the bs. I have pointed to the SOFR rates post Tanos and the subtle impact on finance leverage. It isn’t well costs, pikeman was spot on with his numbers!

Few get it but hey more bs more vix , more opportunity to improve one’s average.

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Trek

Only 261m that seems way below what the market was expecting. I sold 25% earlier and will be putting that back in. So in effect I mitigated the divi risk but now I buy for less and have the cash as the difference.

I think this will turn esp with the fitch buffer. That was an obvious market concern.

AUM up and 6% ish acquisition release to profits

Pretty flipping good I’d say!

The market doesn’t always get it right you know. Sometimes it catches back up!

Usual caveats

Trek

Well they have $2.749m!

Thanks to income from subsidiaries $450k and a huge turnaround in fx gains to $96k

They still have ability to flex loan out, which I expect.

Nav a bit less than I expected but will increase overtime.

Finance - bonds well there’s no real news there. It’s ready to go but hasn’t gone yet.

All in all accounts are better than what the sp expected. They have plenty of cash to run off until financing including the Nav creek drilling which is already paid for.

These results are to 30th June. You can roll these numbers forward with confidence well into next year.

Nothing to see here , yet!

Usual caveats

Trek

There ya go caught the days bottom? Near as I reckon!

Lots of nibbles, slowly! slowly!

10,000

DEC

Diversified Energy Co

Price Traded

£0.81167

Total Cost

£8,161.27

Type

Buy

Status

Executed

Trade Date/Time

27/09/23 at 10:20:33

Settlement Currency

GBP

Settlement Date

29/09/2023

Account

Xxxx

Reference

xxxx

Usual caveats

Trek

Yes indeed just when they got there expanded borrowing base!

Sold my 79’s today. 10k shares at a profit. Ready to buy em back again. Bullish divergence hammer indicates bottom is in so want to time the next rise to 85p I reckon!

The company is not going bust with new money and bankers support. At least not before Christmas! Lol!

This has been an amazing trading opportunity!

Usual caveats

Trek

It’s all a conspiracy! Lol! Glad the lawyers got a kicking for taking the ps as well!

“ In his decision on Tuesday, Engoron also decided to impose sanctions on the Trumps’ lawyers over the AG’s accusations that they have acted unprofessionally by raising ridiculous arguments and delaying the case this long. AG investigators have been digging into the Trumps’ finances for more than three years and have been slowed down at every turn by a company that has refused to turn over documents and Trump family members who wouldn’t show up for official interviews. The family’s procrastination and obstruction efforts forced the judge to intervene several times, at one point ordering the former president himself to pay $110,000 in fines.

“Unfortunately, sanctions are the only way to impress upon defendants’ attorneys the consequences of engaging in repetitive, frivolous motion practice after this court, affirmed by the appellate division, expressly warned them against doing so,” he wrote.

He ordered the entire Trump legal team—Michael Madaio, Clifford S. Robert, Michael Farina, Christopher Kise, and Armen Morian—to each pay $7,500, a punishment that will also serve as a blemish on their professional records.”

Trek

Investors should make every effort to listen to the 3.30 presentation today as the situation at Touchstone has been totally transformed by the bringing on of Cascadura field that changes the company completely. I was on the earlier call and it was excellent. I interview CEO Paul Baay tomorrow.

https://www.malcysblog.com/2023/09/oil-price-wentworth-dec-touchstone/

Trek

Malcy comments

“ This is an important note for DEC for whom the important revolving credit facility, and structured as a Sustainability-Linked Loan has been increased to $425m from $375m. The impact has resulted in a strengthening of the company’s liquidity of $120m, notably important in the econometrics of DEC. ”

https://www.malcysblog.com/2023/09/oil-price-wentworth-dec-touchstone/

Trek

2 x 2m indicative buys gone through. Over a penny above mid.

Could do with the new cfo buying some if he can.

I am at 86p now but still got work to do!

Took an age to get below 90 now flipping 80p!

The RNS doesnt say ‘new terms’ for the borrowing expansion and this is a 100% bank backed ABS expansion. No descent. If it was there would be new ‘stringent terms’ that would have been noted in the RNS. So one is assuming it’s the same terms for a larger base which indicates to me that the banks are happy that the model shows the debt runs off. They have also agreed this with one assumes the new CFO ‘in the room’ as well.

Anyways I have convinced myself to put some more back in for now. Doing the opposite to trend here selling on up days and buying on down days has resulted in more gains than losses albeit now slightly down with the last divi but up when the previous one is taken into account.

Meanwhile PHNX, which also has a hedged book is under attack! So work to do there as well. Xd on Thursday that one.

6% sounds so much easier! Lol!

Thankfully IQAI which has started to move is more than covering my loss on two ‘safer’ income plays. It’s supposed to be the other way around! Lol!

Oh well off on hols spending my winnings from YU!

Usual caveats

Trek

Good news I guess as last ones likely being dumped as in the money on the average!

I like that other than TD Lorna will keep the market guessing for a month. Reverse psychology, we could get news earlier! But by a month.

Many CEO’s would say info ‘by next Wednesday’ then the sp gets hit if they miss.

A month opens up all possibilities! Lol!

Usual caveats

Trek