Member Info for TrekMadone

Now a £688k indicative buy at 29.375… wow that’s unusual here as it’s often NT for trades over 25k or even less!

Another ordinary type trade. SP now ticked back up to 30p.

Hopefully whatever it was is done now but somehow I won’t be surprised if we get additional news next week.

Usual caveats

Trek

£230k buy and a £53k buy. Both ‘O’ type. If it’s a buy which just because it looks like a duck and walks like a duck doesn’t mean to say it is in this game! Why cos SP done zilch, actually gone down a tad.

Does the seller have more?

Should have been a bounce after that one.

Mmm

Usual caveats

Trek

Gotta ask yourself why a seller. There could be loads of reasons.

The only concern I have is the market reaction as Duke may be looking for additional liquidity. There is around 35m left from the fairfax deal which was a cracking package at Sonia + 5% from memory.

35m is a headline as only bigger deals get RNS’d so it could be 20m. Whilst there is no hurry, if that is the case, they would eventually need to close a package out but atm rates are high and have not come down as expected.

I think that will change soon hence I took a few here. But I will wait before adding more in case the March trading updates has a follow on liquidity raise. Which if market rates are still too high could be from equity rather than debt.

Given the Bod have a lot of skin in here it and the price hasn’t really moved I think it could be a 25p placing.

When there is a seller close to the bid, happy to just offload volume it’s often coincidentally related. They could have had the feeler put out about a funding and thought yep you have our support let’s start selling now whilst there is market liquidity.

Obviuosly I am completely unsure and it’s only guess work on my part but I don’t see the point of just posting from one side.

Nonetheless, I have only taken a smaller position here in case I need to average down later.

But the important thing is the outlook is positive esp as rates come down but the divi wouldn’t go up as the pot has to cover more shares.

Once the macro shifts DUKE will really benefit from lower overheads.

Usual caveats

Trek

Hi Jimzi,

It’s not the 300k as cash, the reason for the 300k, the EAP, could be all smoke and mirrors to get stock as alluded to by others. The company has not raised cash for well over a year being run successfully on grants and revenues.

I can’t imagine that they haven’t had any income from IB now or something more meaningful from the LA hospitals. We have also had a recent grant top up.

So whilst the monies will be used for the EAP, ostensibly the reason may have been to grab cheap stock.

But I also agree now all the CLN’s are burnt there could be another around the corner which looks more likely than the sp enhancing arrangements that investors were promised in numerous RNS’s.

Thing is I actually don’t mind the CLN if it’s transparent and linked with a value enhancing event. Like cash for a phase 2 together with a reasonably discounted insti & PI placing or better still a JV &/or asset monetisation.

There is so much going for this company. So many options and unique science. A real pioneer. It’s just about time that the BoD were as serious as KS and JC are about delivering!

Yet again the Bod room has let down the Lab, it’s gotta change and there’s time and opportunity ahead to do so.

This still remains a realistic moonshot opportunity so it isn’t meant to be easy. Just not this difficult!

Usual caveats

Trek

Hi Temple,

My last 50k buy was posted as a sell. I was surprised to see that as the vol wasn’t that high so the sp wasn’t moving quicker than the ALGO. I think there’s a seller just giving a good price closer to the bid atm so buys show as a sell.

I am not buying more yet as this may go to 28p again. That is where I will add the next lot. If it goes back up I will wait on the sides.

Ps good numbers at SEPL!

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Trek

Good helpful summary thank you cautious.

Buyers should logically return now. I base that on that I have been thinking about buying back into AVCT given the sp post funding but I still keep seeing more % upside here from this lowly mcap and both have great intentions.

I think the MAR, if anything comes of it which I doubt, at worse it would be a phone call, may at least motivate some better shareholder engagement.

All folk ask for is some transparency, regular accurate comms and proper engagement. Not dragging out some apologetic scientist to do TB’s job for him!

Get that and the SP will move north. Then you never know the next time they raise they could ask us and you may find that PI’s are prepared to cough up much bigger sums to support their investments!

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Trek

Some good income sniffing out there Rojen3.

I sold out here at 33p and just bought back again. Wasn’t being clever just lucky as flipped some around.

Now got a few back. My buys showed as sells as the ALGO here is all over the place.

I am pretty sure there is a seller here affording this low SP opportunity. This has held up very well for the last year and should actually go higher in a lower interest rate world. That and all the indicative buys indicate to me that this is an opportunity.

I will add more probably after the results now.

Good luck.

Usual caveats

Trek

Done my submission. It was harder working out the I am not a robot puzzle! Was that a car in both boxes or one!

This is all I wrote if it saves anyone time.

“ Unusual trading behaviours. There was a heavily discounted placing taken up by Trevor Browns family investment vehicle FAB which should have been market confidential. There was no rational for the placing price of 1.5p which seemed disproportionately heavily discounted as the stock was sold down in advance from 4p to 2.6p by the same entities who then took up the 1.5p placing. Please can you verify that these trading patterns were in compliance to the market rules. Thank you.”

It will go in the in trays with the other hundred thousand moaning PI’s lol!

Still it shouldn’t slow down the progress of the scientists and honestly I couldn’t care less anymore about the money here. I invested as a main reason to give hope to some of those sufferers following the loss of a loved one. And if I make a few bob happy days.

I didn’t quite have this in mind though when thinking about bringing relief to suffering!

Usual caveats

Trek

Below is the link. You just fill out the form at the bottom of this link and send. It’s really that simple. 



https://www.fca.org.uk/markets/market-abuse/how-report-suspected-market-abuse-individual

It’s obviously insider trading as the left hand shouldn’t know what the right hand is doing in an ideal, fair and transparent world.

If it stinks like this then logically there is a smell. But is it just pushing the spirit of the law as opposed to out and out breaking of it. It happens all the time.

Look at how other placings are forward sold before they are even announced. The brokers know what is going on but it’s a common cultural practice at the cost to excluded investors. No one has challenged it hence it continues.

There is no protocol for a placing price in the small cap world. Imagine if BP did a placing at 200p. There would be hell up. Calls of crooks etc!

The irony is that the brokers are supposed to be following the same rules and the same spirit of those rules for small caps and yet they decide not to because that’s what they have always done.

It’s no different to the subprime behaviours but they don’t see it as it’s institutional. They think they are above the law when it suits and use the excuse that the PI’s know the risks when investing.

Yes that is true to a certain extent but you don’t hide behind that mantra to justify your own machiavellian behaviours to your own financial gain at another’s expense.

They will spin some crap that without them the smallcaps wouldn’t be funded and SP’s would be on its knees. Well hello have you not looked at what has exactly happened! No one trusts aim/fledgling/microcaps or the brokers anymore. Money is leaving the market because of these very reasons!

Their behaviours that they think are doing us a favour are the very reason why many are not investing and it becomes a vicious circle perpetuated by the greed of a few and toothless complicit regulators and brokers.

It’s worth filling the link out just to flag this stuff up.

I would do so on the basis that….

‘there was a heavily discounted placing taken up by Trevor Browns family investment vehicle FAB which should have been market confidential. There was no rational for the placing price of 1.5p which seemed disproportionately heavily discounted as the stock was sold down in advance from 4p to 2.6p by the same entities who then took up the 1.5p placing’

I am not expecting the MAR to do anything but at least it puts it on the radar and may eventually lead to a much needed change in rules and culture.

Usual caveats 



Trek

VOD does at last seem to be having a bit of life. I had second thoughts when it went back below 70 but it’s a strong move today. I hope that pull back was profit taking from the lows. If so it could move a fair bit for a big stock to test 75p range. I am in at under 69p

Vast - let’s put all our shares in the middle and share them back out - oops I got 20% less! ouch! We never learn!

HZM - well done CEO yeps they spent well, there’s value in them hills and we’d do it all again. Twt! Don’t help when even the bod are deluded or at least pretend to be while they land huge salaries. Down 20% sXX all over!

Avct was always gonna be a bouncy day today. I will wait. At least they have 2 years cash. Won’t last that long though. Pharma is expensive and biotech inflation is another league!

POLX - it’s last update read like a 5 pillar spiritual well-being plan! If your trading and haven’t sold yet escape imo, better off booking losses than racing to zero! Placing soon!

TGR - another ebullient deluded ceo. No need to look it up it means FOS! Gosh the market is full of them! Soon people will clock that we don’t like electric cars and they ain’t as green as ya think! Lithium anybody!

TXP - I posted there. RBL should lead to cash. Surely not even a muppet could fk those numbers up. We’ll see!

Stay away from the tiddlers out there unless yo really really know your stuff and even then it’s fun money imo.

You could have grabbed loads of MNG at 189 when I tipped em here and be looking forward to a whopper divi soon amongst plenty of other high value dependable income plays that are on knock down prices atm.

Missed out fill ya boots at PHNX I have 11% yield, buy under 500p and forget it. Rates will coincidentally come down with the electioneering. As a trade it’s nailed on to go back into 500’s. ‘Easy’ money trading and holding that one.

Talking of elections. YOUGOV, (YOU) I said it would come back from 10. Now it could go to ATH’s on the run in. But sell em then. They are a trade from 1140 now as don’t pay an income (0.76%). There are better plays though esp Housebuilders that will recover from another pants down inspection as rate cuts will forgive all sins!

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Trek

Hi Johnoxxx,

Just read your post and realised I said RCF when it should be RBL. It’s still debt but the later the market attributes more surety of getting their money back whilst the former can be associated with an AIM lifestyle spin loan!

Let’s see which we get!

Tongue in cheek! Lol!

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Trek

Hi Corpse it’s just the 11% decline at Casca & coho workover that will grab the headlines due to the downtime but that’s behind us now.

If Paul can’t do the RCF with his banker mates with this revenue outlook then there’s no hope!

After that early days we are drilling into known capable producing assets but obviuosly there’s zilch attributed for that until we are FULLY funded.

Someone said March will be good. I think so. They also seem to be moving at pace on the ground for a change.

Usual caveats

Trek

Looks like we being valued at the gross NPV10 of $150m. Casca 2 on line and completion of workovers will transform next full year. Low decline wells are very financially attractive but it’s gonna be the drill bit that will transform the SP.

More production wells not only add revs but they smooth out cashflow.

Lots of sp catalyst ahead from those extra production wells to which the market is attributing zero value and of course the exploration ahead which will be full funded by cashflow/debt.

Now Paul has the reserves report I would expect the RCF to follow pretty quickly. The market is understandably punishing anyone that needs cash atm. The RCF should see a bit of a lift especially as Paul’s last business plan seemed to overlook the funding!

Still onwards and upwards!

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Trek

Gosh one feels awful just saying the word. Mmm perhaps a reflection of the real issues we face!!

I note the headlines on the telegraph and daily express today.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-68443012

I don’t think the world gets it. Russia has already weaponised immigration. They now have imbedded infrastructure in many of the hotspots to transport just about anyone that is able to go to our borders.

Poland aside which is committing huge resources to prevent the illegal influx the rest of Europe will succumb. We just don’t have a solution to it. We are not equipped to defend our borders from daily illegal boat, rail or truck crossings let alone an orchestrated peopleinvasion!

You only have to look at the recent demonstrations, the impact on schools, health services and the financial strain on councils to just view the tip of the iceberg for the destabilising effects!

Putin may be many things but he knows exactly what he is doing here and has found an Achilles heel!!

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Trek

I thought it was balanced. It came out just after I bought back in here.

I sold at about 33p and back in at 30p and a bit so not much difference really. But I have been watching the price and was amazed at how well it held up through the market ups and downs!

So figured I’d grab some as yield looks safe and sp should tick up once rates come down which should happen coincidentally in time for the next GE!

I like to try and grab high yield near the SP bottom and then have some air cover once the sp ticks back up. This could dip below 30p as there seems to be a seller atm but I think further out it looks pretty solid. Just like an annuity! lol!

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Trek

Good write up

https://bnnbreaking.com/finance-nav/seplat-energy-unveils-dividends-and-financial-triumphs-eyes-exxon-mobil-assets

Trek

I am with you on the divi ST.

I sold some Tuesday. Old habits as one never knows how the market will respond to results plus the current domestic situation in Nigeria so I took a few off.

I would have been so annoyed if it dropped having been in a good profit especially as this was my second highest holding so common sense prevailed!

And yep the SP goes up! But I would rather that as still have plenty in here and a nice cushion to reap the divi rewards + I can buy back and would have had cash to average down if it dropped.

Bit disappointed that still no news on the divestment. Heineken Lokpobiri seemed to imply at the Davos interview the hold-up was the Bod’s as they had been given the all clear, the noc were too late to invoke their right to buy so the hold up was the bods of exxon and sepl not the govt!

So still we wait.

The theft reduction news was great and the poo achieved was also good. All the financials were great and they have shed loads of cash!

I am really surprised there isn’t a few more posters here esp give how well it’s performed against the market. + a chance of doubling the numbers on any divestment.

Talking myself into buying em back! lol!

Usual caveats

Trek

The notification for crossing is….. DTR 5.8…

“ The notification to the issuer shall be effected as soon as possible, but not later than four trading days in the case of a non-UKissuer and two trading days in all other cases, after the date on which the relevant person:”

https://www.handbook.fca.org.uk/handbook/DTR/5/8.html

You can quote that in your complaint

To report a late TR1 is straightforward. You just fill out the form at the bottom of this link and send. It’s really that simple.

https://www.fca.org.uk/markets/market-abuse/how-report-suspected-market-abuse-individual

Not saying they will do FA but at least it puts it on the radar!

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Trek

Agree mick, Hemo got amazing science in CBR but its operational progress is slow. Also few seem to realise that CAR-T is already out there in various forms with other biotechs. Hemo could be a blockbuster though but there’s plenty of time as lots of the upside is a long way off so let others take the risks.

IQAI - that’s why I like them less shares, running on grants and scoping a phase 2. The phase 1 will close this year. But the CEO even though he has like 23% of stock is a greedy fker! I will be putting in a MAR complaint when the TR1 that we ain’t supposed to notice lands late. Just like he did at Chamberlain! It’s supposed to be within the next trading day! But the MAR are a waste of time and usually ignore it!

Both Hemo and iqai use Peterhouse as do HE1 who got clobbered with a 72% discounted placing last time around! Gutterhouse getting themselves a sht reputation with PI’s! They even had my posts removed for calling them out. 🖕

There is so much insider trading going on just like Avct where insti’s sell down stock ahead of placings and forward sell placed stock it’s just a nightmare!

It’s one of the reasons AIM/main smallcap is not fit for most retail PI’s! They label insider trading market mechanics. A euphemism for fk you! Ostensibly the PI’s fund the placings!

I rode Avct from 30p to over 200p from memory and sold the last at around 130p. Ya gotta take profits. I know the story and may buy back but will target 48-50p entry. There’s usually a last ditch of stock as the inst’s are up on a pound cost average so they just dump the last!

There plenty of money to be made here but even if you can read a balance sheet and know how things work you can still get caught out!

Anyways SHG stuck tw fingers up to the Bod. They now have walked away from the court. Punters think a better offer will land but equally not mentioned is it may not. Then they will likely need cash after this lot! I sold made over 30%. That’ll do.

ONC - new ceo there done a great turnaround job. Buy now for 27p imo.

Txp - still waiting. It’ll come drills they are a spinning and the market don’t know!

Vod - that was a damp squib as the market feel the Swiss may say no as they hold the golden share so would be liable if Vod acquired assets went tts up! I’m holding though as more to play imo and divi looking safer!

Upl - could be a good week next week. Buy now sell at 4p.

Dec - I am loving it, less than the xd off sp today. I have bagged the divi and have air over on both my pots there now! 27% annual yield AFTER taxes!!

Sepl - I sold 16k ahead of results. Market like the numbers but I got 30k shares still in. Bagged a nice profit now will let the rest ride!

Just saw Vod pop as I type - literally lol!

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Trek

So far 935 has put a floor under the SP even with vole on increasing their short!

It’s gonna be very interesting following this.

I think many will give up at least a % as it’s the first time around. But if this goes well then next time many could chase the shares ahead of divi and go all in!

I think there are much easier short targets out there than Dec. The sp here is already on its backside contrary to the data.

Divi increase anyone! lol!

Usual caveats

Trek