Member Info for TrekMadone

I gave up smoking and the odd puff of weed after 16 years way back. Just stopped.

Gave up alcohol for 365 days. Just so I could. Went a whole year!

Now I enjoy occasional drink. Don’t smoke though.

Could have stopped drinking all together but manage just once a week now or more if a special occasion but zero in between.

Trek

O gosh nom, you found Pi.

It has its uses like occupying Mrs Trek while I go down the pub and talk to some real robots! lol!

Trek

It’s a good summary and the headline numbers were outstanding. Like I have said in the past its the volume of sales that are key with hedged production and they delivered 821 another record and in a warmer El Niño year!

The divi cut takes away that milestone Rusty referred to on the investor call.

Now, yet to be seen, or for that matter believed, let’s see some structured buy backs!

It doesn’t have to be every day. It can be by price or Mondays only for all I care!. But it needs some methodology and frequency to give confidence to the market.

I will defo be adding more as I can now. The surety of the quarterly yield with that +50% ebit margin is compelling.

I see the balance sheet growing asset wise as debt gets paid down and bargains come up.

Many of the longer life wells will soon just printing cash debt free.

I also think that the yield will increase ahead of 3 years, probably in 2 years as those ABS notes get paid off meaning buyers now could be in for another bumper divi in two years time when hopefully the sp is higher for a similar yield as now assuming a higher divi.

And I never in my wildest thought 885 today would end up blue. Hope it sticks around this level so I can re-invest the divi. But I think other than adage and Connor who’s shorts are well in it won’t take much to spook one short seller meaning others may follow.

Fed rate decision soon. Just some dovishness and a reduction in SOFR will all help! Still at least it shouldn’t go up higher!

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Trek

“ The market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 8.90% between 2024 and 2032.”

https://www.expertmarketresearch.com/reports/cobalt-market

Trek

I’m hanging in there mick. Sold some and bought some now at 885. Was amazed to see it now at 890 as was 850 when I popped out!

Stateside may like line of sight to growth and a 10% yield. Personally I quite liked the 30% yield but I guess it was never gonna last!

May get some shorts closing soon. Who knows!

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Trek

I followed the director here.

I had sp drop down to metals prices. But now copper has lifted copper producers, cobalt has bottomed with a more bullish outlook and uranium stocks are doing ok. What’s the score with this.

So next lot of results will be more on EcOR licences. Market needs numbers to be convinced I guess. That should then lift the sp….??

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Trek

Should read sell low and buy lower!

My lowest buy today was 840!

Now in the red at 885 average but blue when divi comes though and overall with previous divi’s.

Will re-invest next divi as I think this should be the bottom now, again!

That’s +10% yield now as opposed to near 30%!

If only eh!

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Trek

‘Similar brand-new equipment typically costs around US$7-8million for both ball mills and has a lead-in time of around 12 months”

Yep great news. So before they found this opportunity they were expecting to wait another year. Mmmm

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Trek

Director buys RNS’s tomorrow or just divi reinvestment later?

I think it could do with a vote of confidence!

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Trek

Ouch on the divi! That’s a big chunk of income. But I see this as a pretty solid forward yield now at this sp. Added a few at 890 with keep buying now and expect shorts to close out as the divi uncertainty is out the way.

ESG wise they still have probably the most compelling story in the sector.

I think the SP will rerate but prob to a 6-8% yield which is the sector ballpark so buying now makes sense for my income needs. Flipping low/non yield into here now.

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Trek

It’s still a near 10% yield at this sp and for 3 years with audited results.

After 3 years well actually 2 years the debt reduces significantly so the divi could actually go up earlier + the impact of buybacks.

Balance sheet does look good though especially volumes and great access to market.

Acquisition comes with hedges as well.

I am very disappointed at the dividend cut as was much more than I expected but now it represents a solid quarterly income for 3 years and a good chance of increasing.

Bumpy day today and then folk will see more longer term surety and capital growth imo.

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Trek

Must say I was expecting a leaky ship today and sp to drop a tad. No indication at all. Put my trading pot back in now.

Trek

China - cheapest and best batteries. EU & US is miles behind!

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/18/catl-chinese-battery-maker-evs-electric-vehicles?utm_term=65f7f6c94c7346a49aab7380b84b105d&utm_campaign=BusinessToday&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&CMP=bustoday_email

Trek

Clued its ticker for st James place. sTJ

Divi that makes sense. ‘Only closed books’

If so then that’s a pretty minor impact on that pf.

Obviously it will mean future books will be cheaper but that could actually put more up for sale at a cheaper price!

Who knows until we get RNS.

But this could soften the xd impact so may still get a recovery that way.

MNG report on 21st Phnx on 22nd if google correct.

We’ll find out soon enough!

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Trek

Phnx - bought more at 483. Regulator woes. Oversold imo. 70m is not big deal even if just for a quarter.

Hum - thankfully I didn’t buy! What a sht show. Even if I was to buy would be a small trade.

Tgr - could have got under 5 but don’t trust ceo. Wait for placing imo.

Upl - got a small position for a punt. Let’s see what next update is. They are funded and sp drops a tad after bond flip. Target 4p.

Dec - I was expecting it to drop today but looks leak proof. Trading pot there is back in. Fingers crossed!

Txp - added last week. Should see news end of March. CEO learnt his lesson imo and just releasing facts last RNS was understated over deliver. Next will be very very positive imo. But it’s gas and at the end of the day don’t matter how good news is needs folk to buy. Same as Dec in that respect!

He1 - still sat on my hands for another go. Have done most excellent there!

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Trek

The market thinks this is a STJ type of event.

A pity the water regulator doesn’t take the same stance!

https://www.ft.com/content/1a5bd8f9-a28e-41d0-b086-a3bcd6b493fb

This is for future fees. They must have guided a 70m impact. For what period don’t know but even if that’s a quarter 280m is still manageable.

For sure it will hit future revenues but there are lots of cost saving opportunities ahead as I posted before esp from AI.

I cant see this affecting the divi other than folk getting a higher yield with reinvestment!

For sure it rightly is better vfm for consumers but the whole industry is a scam. Every pension! What happens to the pot you built up over years of paying in once you and your partner die. It goes to the company or the state not your kids. That’s why folk should do their own!

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Trek

I added today at 483 as well. Will get more if it goes to 70’s.

Not long to results and preference all bad news is in market ahead of them

As this is a long term hold for me I see this as an opportunity.

Who knows Av may have a sniff after as they are on acquisition hunt!

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Trek

At least it’s from July and not backdated. They made 200m from acquisition savings so the 70m just means no spec divi. Given where sp is compared to lgen, av and mng something must have spooked it ages ago.

The numbers have been running ahead. 2 years early in fact.

This is obviously not good news but I don’t think it’s as bad given £5 as it would be at £6.80!

May see a steady recovery in sp once guidance is reviewed.

But then a change of govt could bring another sht show!

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Trek

TGR - great update there. Still the spectre of funding though. By sp now so low due to anx makes it a buy as could go up with funding given ops update today imo.

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Trek

Jilen….. ALGO bot invaded LSE. Posted on DEC reported.

Trek