Member Info for TrekMadone

“ BUDAPEST, March 11 (Reuters) - Former U.S. leader Donald Trump will not give money to help Ukraine fight Russia if he wins the presidency again and that will hasten an end to the war, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said after meeting him.

Nationalist premier Orban, who is backing his long-time ally's bid to return to White House, met Trump in Florida on Friday.

"He will not give a penny into the Ukraine-Russia war and therefore the war will end," Orban told state television late on Sunday. "As it is obvious that Ukraine on its own cannot stand on its feet."

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trump-wont-give-money-ukraine-if-elected-says-hungarys-orban-2024-03-11/

Trek

Yep and Labour can’t wait to follow ‘em! Muppets all of them!

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/mar/11/labour-use-state-bank-fund-female-led-businesses-women-tulip-siddiq?utm_term=65eebba79dad6bbfc1368f468faac130&utm_campaign=BusinessToday&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&CMP=bustoday_email

Trek

yep look at how that one was ramped & bids!

it’s similar at he1. not saying they are going under but many pi’s just don’t read it for themselves. folk selling coz they know cash is needed and wanna get back in later cheaper so ramping the sp while they sell. they will then be ****ging it off when it’s cheap to get cheaper!

it’s a flipping minefield and even if you think you know what you are doing one still can get caught out! like me over at iqai but i do think that one will turn again as the ceo has an awful lot of ‘skin’ in it.

sometime though the market can be wrong. i think the are wrong at dec and also another is awe. both shorted don’t mean the shorts are right.

usual caveats

trek

To report suspected market abuse. You just fill out the form at the bottom of this link and send. It’s really that simple. 



https://www.fca.org.uk/markets/market-abuse/how-report-suspected-market-abuse-individual 



Not saying they will do FA but at least it puts the directors on the radar!

Good luck all



Usual caveats

Trek

To report suspected market abuse. You just fill out the form at the bottom of this link and send. It’s really that simple. 



https://www.fca.org.uk/markets/market-abuse/how-report-suspected-market-abuse-individual 



Not saying they will do FA but at least it puts the directors on the radar!

Good luck all



Usual caveats

Trek

RIP

“ Video game AdTech firm Bidstack going bust

AdTech business BidStack, once worth more than £80 million, is set to collapse into administration.

The business, which helped to place advertisements inside video games, has struggled in the past year amid a legal dispute with a partner and a wider downturn for any businesses in the video game sector.

It launched a strategic review to find extra cash last month, but said it had failed to get the funding needed.

The firm will suspend trading in its shares from today.”

Trek

For sure DEC being shorted based on the misguided ESG narrative, the gas price and that folk don’t believe the self amortising ABS loans. Also interest rate cuts have been delayed so SOFR still high but probably peaked.

Getting a 26% yield isn’t supposed to be easy! Incidentally it’s xd atm and the divi lands on 26th March. That’s a 6.5% quarterly yield for me and it’s my 3rd divi there.

Last TU was in line with expectations. Results are due 19th March.

People look at price and debt but imo it’s volumes of sales that are important. Especially following issues with Freeport terminal and mild winter (El Nino) . Have DEC shifted enough gas.

The decline rate of a little under 10% isn’t really relevant as that’s the model. The asset self amortises the debt and in two years time a huge lump gets paid off meaning more FCF.

Most folk just don’t get it or they do get it and don’t believe it, which is why it helps that Rusty has a big position, hence the shorts. Also the shorts followed the US listing and have come with some dirty tricks as well!

Still let’s see what the results say and if they commit to the next divi or even two which I think they will else it will tumble!

Usual caveats

Trek

If anyone doesn’t get the DEC model and longevity this interview may be for you. I added to my position several times this week buying under 935 and am getting a 25.97% average dividend now on my holdings there after taxes paid quarterly.

Absolutely unbelievable!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DM4nauO3mTM

Usual caveats

Trek

Really great interview thanks for posting Lukee

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DM4nauO3mTM

20-22mins in shows scale!

Trek

‘The Egyptian thinker Ismail Serageldin once said that if the wars of last century were fought over oil, those of this century will be fought over water. Nowhere on the planet is this warning more portentous than in the world’s largest continent, where nations are in a race to dam, re-route, and control a riverine network that feeds some of the world’s most parched economies, home to some five billion people and a vast manufacturing complex that is driving climate pressures and geopolitical tensions.“

https://www.hinrichfoundation.com/research/wp/sustainable/the-rising-contest-over-asia-water/?utm_source=visualcapitalist&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_campaign=wp-vc-asia-s-water-dilemma&utm_content=20240308-ad-regular-newsletter

Trek

Joe,

Well done. I hit this one big time first time around from below 6p average selling in the 20’s!

2nd time I lost a little.

3rd time another jackpot, bought .2’s and higher to average at .37 and sold the last of them at 1.8’s the first lot in the 3’s!

Likewise I will probably be back after the next raise which imo will be below a penny again.

Wouldn’t be surprised to see a consolidation as well if it’s still under a Penny. Sex it up a bit before they start doing some proper deals.

Usual caveats

Trek

Aren’t you out at the moment Joe? Thought with all your knowledge you would also have bagged loads from around a 0.37 average by selling down in tranches from 3p?

Seems odd.

Sitting on the sidelines now playing elsewhere back laters.

Good luck.

Usual caveats

Trek

Hi AP, yes I agree to some extent. But there are thousands of people dealing with regulatory system alerts, customer interactions, processing orders etc. DLG ran a model and AI scored a higher satisfaction at +80% than humans! Not surprised having spoke to a few! lol!

Pay and pension costs are a recurring inflation busting expense.

But yes absolutely the capex saving on the fibre roll out is also huge albeit I don’t believe for one minute they will ever switch out copper in anything near its entirety. They just get it to work more efficiently and add fibre to new builds and conurbations that cost in.

We still got poles and drop wires here as far as the eye can see! The fibre stops at the cabinet.

Like Vod BT will be significantly disrupted by spaceX in the future and that’s where imo they need to focus next. Lockhead have bid for Teran Orbital in the US, a satellite manufacturer coz they know what’s coming!

My point is the synonymous savings here are people enabled by AI. That goes for all insurers and many other institutions.

Just in time eh as we need a workforce to be trained to do other work! Look after us old farts and have proper trades folk.

Usual caveats

Trek

Go read the RNS there. Now that one really takes the biscuit! lol!

Usual caveats

Trek

Agreed what a load of bllx! This RNS belongs on the company website below meet the directors! Save £5k!

How was the dash for cash before the broker resigned. Oh 1m by the sounds of it wasn’t enough!

Honestly you really couldn’t make it up.

It’s about time this market stopped taking investors for fools and treating them like cash points!

Usual caveats

Trek

Absolutely. The market is looking at Av and MnG but this imo is the one.

The advent of AI opens this up to huge savings. I mean transformational. Look at the pipeline job savings at BT from AI. This is similar. Keyboard/customer interaction.

Then there’s the rebranding costs. Change a few letter heads and a few websites!

Then the market, sp cost; it’s so cheap compared to EU and US peers and it’s ahead of its own guidance by 2 years!

Nothing like stating the obvious!

Usual caveats

Trek

Hi guys,

It’s just most punters focus on the sexy ops update. They ignore the interims and the cash run rate.

I made another post on he1 bb basically…

One Can’t save folk from all that glitters!

And I know, I have been caught!!!!!

He1, no matter what they do next they will need cash. It’ll be discounted. I mean shthouse even did a 72% discount for their mates ffs on the last recent placing!

Look, ops are looking sound but ya gotta remember directors get options and a chance to buy discounted placings. pI’s don’t. So directors aren’t aligned here

So imo sit on fence see what’s next, buy when it goes below the next placing price. Sell the next news. Recycle.

It doesn’t matter if you do that with just a percentage of your stock.

Just holding and closing your eyes, ignoring or hoping coz you are so in the red is exactly what these fkrs want!

And I hope that’s not the case!

Usual caveats

Trek

See my earlier post.

With respect imo it’s not the ops risk here that is the biggest threat to PI’s. It’s the finance!

When you have a broker like shthouse that will telegraph a placing so that those on their list get a win win at the expense of PI’s without redress, then that’s a risk that needs to be factored in.

They placed at 72% discount ffs!

Management get to buy and have follow on options so they don’t suffer the dilution.

Look at the interims not the rose tinted ops update. Work out the cash run off.

Look at the plans and reach your own conclusion.

Will they need more cash yes/no. How much. What discount.

Even if they JV they still need more cash for the ops.

That’s why imo the so is down today on an erstwhile good outlook cos folk have worked out they can sit on the sidelines until finance is sorted.

That way you can average back in higher or lower but you can mitigate more dilution.

Those that have held and hugged here even since IPO, and that’s when I first invested, are significantly underwater unless they traded. Which thankfully I did!

You can always hold some trade some but blindly all in as per some posts here?

Just have a think.

Literally scribble down your own pro’s and cons thoughts and risk accordingly.

For transparency my plan is to sit on the sidelines and buy after the next placing.

Imo whatever avenue they pursue from here will need cash. I anticipate that to be May/June so will average back in end of May. But obviously all things can change.

Usual caveats

Trek

Hi Mick,

No idea, I posted there just now. There’s been a few trades and public rhetoric of late but nowt to substantiate anything re divestment.

If you are a trader it’s a punt but if you are chasing income it’s imo a conviction buy atm cos you will get 3 x divi in a couple months. May divi plus a double in June and historically the sp has been agnostic to the divi. Slight retrace then does it’s thing.

Technically there’s usually a case to buy a share near its recent highs and hold/trade! SEPL fits that mo!

Usual caveats

Trek

Bi Bismark,

I have CMCL on my watchlist. Good mgmt team just had a bit of bad luck imo. I would have bought had 630 in my sights but as usual didn’t buy and went elsewhere! Not many know of Cmcl, quiet bb. Good work! But I did well elsewhere!

Similarly I have unloaded at Duke ahead of results and since they have delivered two positive divestment RNS’s, yet sp not moved. Mmmm! Fingers on the button post a placing hoping for 25-26p, Let’s see. lol!

And that’s the trouble here. Just coz SEPL is on a run of glory atm and long may it continue. It can drip back. So it’s always on the back of my mind.

Still I have taken out profit here just like Temple (he’s in Duke). I added shed loads under 100p and have recycled and sliced since.

Got plenty left for me though and I am expecting an out of the blue divestment RNS here followed up by many more regarding the 2nd half ops with the usual NT to buy any decent amounts.

Hence, if anyone has done their DD here and has factored in the growth irrespective of the divestment I would recommend buying ahead of news and the soon double divi and then just holding!

Not advice but there aint many better opportunities out there and just coz some investors have taken profits that ain’t bad. I have spread some risk but may buy back depending on events.

Usual caveats

Trek