Member Info for TrekMadone

Hi Mick, Yep agree to a certain extent. But I think it was her own party that didn’t like her behaviours and pay was an excuse.

Still my view is all MP’s are ‘underpaid’, although I struggle to comprehend that being on a small pension.

They should have more but then no other roles or bungs other just serving the people. Attending committees, being accountable to their communities etc.

Perhaps then they will be more inclined to close the copious tax loopholes that they seem to avoid wanting to shut!

MP’s should be folk that want to serve others and their country for a greater good.

But the world today seems to be mostly about one’s own interest and being an MP for many is a means to achieving one’s own agenda!

Trek

So will Morgan McSweeney get the same 170k?

If it were the other way around and he was replaced by a women who was then paid less I don’t think Rachel would be happy!

So I guess the pay will remain the same?

Trek

What a lovely finish and a small UT trade near days high albeit on relatively lower volumes today.

I looked in again later and could buy a more substantial amount of stock again. But I do think there was much less liquidity earlier on and a coup,e of times the spread has been going wider.

If the float is bought up surely that would be another problem for shorters. Door closing behind ‘em, lol!

Got a good position here again way under 900p and looking forward to the Christmas divi, must be a bummer to pay for that loan stock and be stuck! lol!

Usual caveats

Trek

Firstly why I sold loads elswhere, macro!

US gas I see as a safer bet and DEC is a great income axs to that.

I see debt amortising and more returns longer term. But I appreciate alternative views.

TA wise I bought as posted lots (for me) below 830 as 800 didnt go I added the rest back in as I see 900 breaking out on gas price and balance of short covering.

I get that as a buy atm.

Shorts will see easier money elsewhere on ME concerns. They could even now short an index and average out of duff positions before end of fiscal.

But don’t follow me I will sell in a blink! I have zero allegiance to any stock other than generating an income for us!

DEC has been good to me but I will go overweight when I think it’s right and sell back to a core position then add again if it drops to below what I think is fair value and then rinse and repeat.

However, for now unless you are all over your trading cash is probably king!

Usual caveats

Trek

Ii -

Generally very pleased with them though. Divi’s always paid on time and correct deductions etc

Trek

I sold a lot of stock elsewhere this week.

Curiously the most I could buy here in one hit was 3500 shares. Never seen that low liquidity here before.

Picked up 1 x500 and 1 x 350 and have an order for another 500 shares.

Averaging up at last!

Trek

Cover,

Duke is a lender pays quarterly.

You can see other UK listed quarterly payers here

https://www.dividenddata.co.uk/quarterly-dividends.py

Trek

I don’t see Thursday’s numbers being positive given the budget uncertainty and general AUM drift due to macro.

POO going up could led to a more wait and see view with rates.

Question is how much is now in the price. A divi cut could actually see a sp rally.

I exited at a small loss here and am scratching my head about when to buy back in.

May wait until after Thursday’s reaction to results. But given macro atm it would now be for an in out trade with a view to building a more solid position later.

It’s all pretty much play by ear atm!

GLA

Usual caveats

Trek

Hi Temple,

Hope you still have some SEPL!

Atb

Trek

Hi robleo’

“ There is of course an alternative, that is do nothing and keep accumulating the dividends”

Indeed that is a strategy. But I am an active investor so if I think a sht show is coming I will sell some or all of my investments with a view to buying back more shares. Especially when the charts and macro indicate a dip ahead during the hiatus divi period.

Normally Nov-Jan are good months for equities so I have to be aware that if things improve on macro and rates I may need to average back in quickly!

Anything around 200p having bagged some divi and capital gain works for me. I tend not to be all in or out. Being all out of here atm is unusual for me. But these are unusual times or is it the new normal!

Who knows!

But atm even 4% for cash looks safer!

Usual caveats

Good luck

Trek

The ones I have noticed holding up well are DUKE and CSN.

DUKE will gain from interest rate cuts. But I sold a big position there; it may go to 35p even but then it’s likely to go to mid 20’s on ME escalation as POO goes up which can be inflationary then rates don’t come down!

CSN is like a mini PHNX but it has a fantastic divi track record having increased for every one of the last 20 years! But again ME kicks off and all bets are off!

Then you have likes of MNG and LIO who are more directly linked to stock market performance than PHNX, AV or LGEN. So if SP’s tank their divi’s could suffer.

Then add into the mix the will she won’t she budget with IHT, CGT and Pension tax relief or even a windfall tax on financials! There you have entire sector uncertainty!

Like you better off out or at least a good percentage out atm!

I am 33% out. But the holdings I have bar a low average position in PHNX where I only sold half are in energy and special situations. Also not Europe!

Israel are tied up in Lebanon atm so may not retaliate for a while. But they don’t fk about (are you watching Starmer) and there will be a retaliatory reply.

But who knows it could be over by November or even Christmas or could just ramp up!

Only a few stocks go xd in Nov, LIO is one but that’s not worth buying until after their results and after the budget as it could be hit pretty bad with AUM flows. It’s really a high beta trading stock now as opposed to an income play!

So next lot of big XD’s isn’t really until March - June. MNG is the first off from memory so plenty of time to put cash on longer term risk.

But for now a few hit and runs for a few % gains here and there or else trying to time some bottoms on energy. BP looks like a double bottom at 390 could be on. That’ll give 6%.

DEC that I still hold and see a 900p breakout pending if gas goes through 3. But heavily shorted, which ironically could also supercharge it! Or not! lol!

Then there’s SEPL, it’s bucked the trend in energy and has a huge divestment coming through soon. My biggest position now. Expecting 260 min there soon if it goes through!

Good luck - trade carefully!

Usual caveats

Trek

I sold last at 207 & 209, just based on macro.

Bar a few special sits and energy, cash is king atm imo, markets look more like a correction than a rally. Don’t matter how cheap London is!

Will buy back here later.

Trek

Didn’t know what to do so sold half yesterday and kept half.

Nowt to do with PHNx, all to do with macro.

Although looks like Israel won’t be bombing the nuclear facilities that Iran say they ‘ don’t have’ for now. Biden asked em not to and looks like they have enough on their plate in Lebanon without opening another front just yet.

But with an average way under 500p I thought it made sense to cash some out with a full view of pilling back in here when it feels right.

Cash gives one options. Don’t see the markets running away for a while yet so on sidelines.

Sold all my other financials as well as already bagged the divi’s there and it’s a long time until the next one!

Usual caveats

Trek

Imagine if someone had a pair of those smart tech glasses that could read your face and then use AI to search for all your information! Well the ‘dox’ is here!

Thankfully it’s proper use is protected by terms and conditions!

https://www.theverge.com/2024/10/2/24260262/ray-ban-meta-smart-glasses-doxxing-privacy

Trek

Think they will hit the potential nuke establishments, the missile bunkers and the drone manufacturing capability. That should help Ukraine.

But IRAN has a much bigger armed force. And a bigger country.

From Brave AI…

“ Based on the provided search results, here are the approximate numbers of active military personnel in Iran’s and Israel’s armed forces:

Iran:

Total active military personnel: 587,000 (including 150,000 ground forces, 37,000 air forces, and 18,000 navy members)

Additionally, Iran can count on the support of proxy armies it funds militarily and economically, including Hamas and Hezbollah, with estimated numbers not provided.

Israel:

Total active military personnel: 169,500 (including 126,000 ground forces, 34,000 air forces, and 9,500 navy members)

Note that these numbers are approximate and based on the search results provided. They may not reflect the most up-to-date or exact figures, but they give a general idea of the relative size of the armed forces in Iran and Israel.”

Sometimes things don’t go as planned. Iran could move troops into Lebanon. The US will be dragged in. We will support with rhetoric…

“ As of January 2024, the total number of regular forces personnel in the UK’s armed forces is 138,100, including 4,060 Gurkhas. (Source: British Armed Forces table)”

I think we have a few TA’ reservist and maybe a submarine that’s serviceable and a couple of ships!

Imagine how London would cope with 300 incoming missiles!

Usual caveats

Trek

Hi Blue,

I replied to a poster in HEX who asked about the shale issue. Here’s my reply, check out the links….

“ I don’t have any data but I can tell you that this is not uncommon esp in the Rockies basin, so Montana as well…

You can see the geo edges here…

https://www.geoedges.com/northern-us-rockies

..where KCL or similar clay swelling inhibitors would be used in drilling and fracking.

This gives the basic principles, but do appreciate its an add plug….

…. https://youtu.be/88Hmd541Iak?si=fVAzHDrxCm_aTW18

Other operators such as Precision Drilling provide similar services!

I.e. it’s pretty ubiquitous! “

—————

I sold 30% of my holdings today. Gone to cash for now.

Kept SEPL ….

Here’s another ‘leak’ from Reuters….also POO will help and Nigeria should be ‘safe(r)!’

https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/exxon-seplat-128-billion-deal-approval-imminent-nigeria-president-says-2024-10-01/

Also Roger CEO knows his stuff, really articulate…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ktRrCy3QAbM

Kept DEC, I have traded down there well and it’s US gas. Shorts have it wrong imo. Just herd mentality like sub prime in GFC. They didn’t want to miss out after the snowflake report. So all piled in. Now stuck!

Kept HEX Obviously! Was a one point biggest holding but SEPL overtaken em now!

Sold half PHNX, was also biggest holding swapping top spot regularly with HEX! I had a low average in PHNX so sold some to protect gains. But it goes xd tomorrow! Sod’s Law! But I couldn’t decide what to do so went 50-50. Will likely sell more later. Sold all my other financials!

Kept MSMN, only a v small position.

Added TXP….. T&T news on hook ups due soon! now they dropped the 25% dilutive Trin deal it should rerate imo.

All bar LIO, which I sold at a small loss after being up! Rest were sold at a profit and I gave up an average pf yield of 9.5%! Ouch!

But can start again later. Having some cash gives options.

Usual caveats

Trek

Usual caveats

Trek

More from Reuters

https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/exxon-seplat-128-billion-deal-approval-imminent-nigeria-president-says-2024-10-01/

Trek

It was a good update, however, I have moved this one to cash now together with some others. Macro looks dodgy, have bagged the divi and fully intend to buy back in later.

Was please there was liquidity today to offload. I think there may be a background buyer if that helps anyone as I was able to get quotes for ‘large’ amounts but choose to break up the sells over the day.

No way does that reflect on Duke, just the fked up world in general!

Trek

Sliced a few blue chips today. Can’t believe going up. More pleased with China and seem to think Iran is impotent.

Will look in again this afternoon but adding to cash to buy if anything dips but keeping a toe in.

Sepl ….. Lubbly!

Trek

Forget Oz, forget the remaining 1.25m, forget the fantasy acquisitions, this is about now.

There is plenty of cash now to generate revenue in a relatively short term from the vectors drills.

Each of the 5 drills is what will increment the SP with a cracking chance of success and now with less management distraction.

That’s where imo the upside is!

The rest has as much chance (probably more) of disappointment as success and quite rightly shouldn’t factor in the sp.

Vectra and cash make this a buy.

Usual caveats

Trek

Like I said earlier tro, the Exxon divestment to sepl has been leaked by circumstance. Exxon committed billions into offshore Nigeria. They can’t move on that until the divestment was signed off. But Reuters announced the offshore deal was done!

Then you have the mp’s claiming all the kudos in the media saying the deal is done and how great it will be for the Nigerian economy and its people.

Now you see million £ share buys!

I posted earlier that the deal would be this week or next, can’t find the post on my pie though! But I know I posted it!

Buying sepl under 200p and selling into the divestment RNS is about as nailed on as it gets!

I have a longer term position there though for income which looks solid. I was expecting them to increase the divi significantly on divestment but because it’s taken so long I doubt it now. They will need to invest in the infrastructure which sepl has neglected first. Then the divi should rise significantly.

It’s nice though to have an income stream that looks very stable.

Usual caveats

Trek