Member Info for TrekMadone

PXC RNS just out….

Gonna fund one of its subsidiaries…..ergo….gonna have access to some funds….soon.

You know they said fully funded into 2025…lol!

Mr market knew…but to say they can get a loan means the funds that they don’t need yet must be close. Hence a lil sp bounce today!

Konnex is one of its subsidiaries…..it’s kinda like portfolio ‘gerrymandering’, so you just move the debt lines!

Anyways all my trades there are well up now! Phew!

Trek

Market joined the dots….

“…. Phoenix intends to fund ExGen's contribution to the Project's construction costs through a shareholder loan, which will be provided directly to Konne….’

Basically they know they are going to have cash soon. Details TBA….

Traded to sub 5p, well pleased … I think!!…. Let’s see!

Usual caveats

Trek

Coal use heading for highs….

Future for gas!

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/dec/18/coal-use-to-reach-new-peak-and-remain-at-near-record-levels-for-years?utm_term=67628d161dd2082058f6bc352cf60b3d&utm_campaign=BusinessToday&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&CMP=bustoday_email

Trek

Coal …..

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/dec/18/coal-use-to-reach-new-peak-and-remain-at-near-record-levels-for-years?utm_term=67628d161dd2082058f6bc352cf60b3d&utm_campaign=BusinessToday&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&CMP=bustoday_email

Of course uk don’t use it now. We just import from countries that do!

Found a little gem SEIT high yield and growing assets. Divi well covered as well.

On my buy list. Will need to flip some tho!

Usual caveats

Trek

So do I but don’t hold yet. 20m buyback just complete of 250m mcap! Impressive

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Trek

Yep I have been reading the data as well.

We are heading for a recession IMO. The markets have wind of it… it’s starting to get priced in imo!

I ain’t blaming Tory or Labour (rather both lol!). Germany and France also looking poor. US PMI down but spending up showing the usual consumer lag.

Consumer more bearish in West.

Housing is holding coz if supply and expensive rents. That can change in a blink.

West been slow to cut rates imo. Then the politics has talked down economy here and Europe.

Years of debt accumulation and poor productivity.

China balance of payments down and consumers tightening belts!

Most of my PF is inhigh yield. Taken an age to build it but it’s getting kicked now!

Time to scratch my head. Do I ride it out as the collective divi’s are 9.5% or do I cash out and head for the short term money markets.

Thing is though, if rates are cut SONIA etc will follow and of course cash, albeit without more immediate capital erosion.

The joys of running one’s own retirement fund eh! Sounds good down the pub but only the Tecan’s really know how flipping hard it is to make your own income!

‘Average Joe has no idea’

Trek

So how come the wealthiest countries owe the most!

A guess inside a mystery wrapped in an enigma!

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/102-trillion-of-global-debt-in-2024/

Trek

Where’s that Santa rally? Poor day for most bluechips.

79 down and just 18 up today yet the index only looses 38points!

It’s a joke really with most of the financials (property/banks/insurers) not really having a good year at all.

Lots in the press today about LSE loosing listings. More down talking, no wonder investors are walking!

Gotta be a point though when some of these stocks pick up especially with peers valued up to 40% higher on ‘the street’.

About time the LSE started talking up London, it’s been a sht show since Brexit! Surely there are some tangible benefits!

Govt really can’t afford to loose revenues from the square mile - you’d think!!

Trek

Well to be slightly up after results and a placing is a pretty big vote of confidence especially in this market!

May get some tailwinds if Fed cuts 25bps this week and then BoE should follow.

But with an inflationary budget (Stirling) and Trumps inflationary policies, further cuts may now be slower.

Duke is pretty rate sensitive so turning the corner rate wise helps.

Either way though we seem to be heading back to 30p.

With the bod talking up the divi resilience, cash on hand and a non dilutive business plan I move this from hold to a buy now. Indeed a pretty strong buy following today’s guidance!

Usual caveats

Trek

I think this price is a good opportunity to buy. Just wish I had broken my trades up more to get a better average.

The decline is not NESF specific it is sector wide, including wind. You can see that from the index.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/solar

If British energy are gonna start building from scratch it’s a pretty good time in the cycle now!

They will be using primary arable land, freed by taxing farmers so they sell up meanwhile paying incentives to overseas farmers for ‘food security’. The tax shock to North Sea should also help as companies leave in favour of overseas markets so they can create jobs and tax revenues there! Meanwhile our greatest import by a ‘country mile’ is crude and gas combined!!

All sounds like a great plan to shift the headline carbon footprint on somebody else whilst realistically adding to it and handing more money to China for solar and wind products; encouraging more child Labour with rare earths and buying more Russian fuel refined by India.

Look like a good plan! lol…if it wasn’t true!

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Trek

So the 23.5m is for the existing book. Hence it shouldn’t take long to deploy…

Then this new model which looks very positive…..

“… we intend to raise future additional capital via new Managed Account / Joint Venture structures. The clear benefits of this strategy will be to eliminate cash drag, deliver accretive fee-based revenue and reduce Duke's dependence on the UK public equity markets, thereby minimising dilution and enabling us to execute on strategic growth opportunities more rapidly and at scale. With this in mind, during the period, Duke engaged a placement agent to approach potential capital providers and, as previously announced, has received indicative term sheets from Tier-1 capital providers on potential new funding, with further term sheets expected.…”

Trek

Hi evi,

“ Caml.

I fancy some 160 is a good price imho div is 11c at this low price.”

I got 3 lots at around 158….. I really don’t like the Scottish mining investment they‘re following though…

Scotgold, Sirius and the Cornish ones ….when will investors never learn that UK plc are not mining friendly!!

We prefer an ostensibly low carbon footprint paying central Africa/China and South America to green wash the child labour and their abhorrent environmental footprints so we look clean!

But CAML got a good rep, wasting their time in UK (Scotland, small expo project >3m) imo but at least they have cash in abundance to cover that stupid idea!

I also like PTAL, for income, it’s very cheap atm and it’s community engagement is absolutely outstanding! As is TXP but they don’t pay a divi! Yet! lol!

I would buy CAML now and sell if they get to 220 as a ‘normal Trek trade’.

However, if Trump hits the peace buttons in Ukraine the copper and zinc or lead for that matter prices will go through the roof!

And who is a train ride away??

Peeps chase FXPO on the peace ticket. I get it. But it’s so risky esp if no peace. Meanwhile you get +10% divi to hold CAML and there’s zilch in the price (rightly) for a potential Trump peace trade!

If the peace deal manifests I will go in big. Few know of the link.

Few read the Tecan BB and I don’t mind sharing !

At the end of the day YOU gotta push the buy button but if sharing a little knowledge helps the humble PI against the now AI driven insti’s all the better! lol!

Usual caveats

Trek

Usual caveats

Trek

Blue,

Thanks for posting. You seem a very genuine person. Call it as you see it with integrity! A rare trait these days, let alone on a BB!

I could likewise offer up lots of questions but tbh, given your response it would be counterproductive. It is what it is and thankfully the sentiment, key at this stage, seems genuine!

However, what I will stress, and if you could bring this to the fore in any of your subsequent missives with Nick.

Do ask about an AIM listing.

The benefits liquidity wise over AQSE are axiomatic.

I get he may be taking a two step approach, AQSE the AIM, but as a shareholder and a director he should be releasing value and liquidity to investors where there is a low path of resistance. And that is AIM.

Imo an AIM listing would give a huge lift in SP and also a better standing with banks, HNW etc!

Good to have you here!

ATB

Trek

Timing is everything.

Trek

Demographics…..

I didn’t realise the scale of India compared to China!

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/charted-the-number-of-babies-born-every-hour-by-country/

UK is number 43 with 79 births and most popular name again is Mohamed (BBC .. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly4g2v0ej6o)

That is an observation of the data!

We are heading for a huge global shift in demographics imo and a divergent view on democracy!

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Trek

Hi OaW,

Simplistically they have to move assets from one tax band to another. Integrate the asset and embark on their synergistic plan.

In Nigeria that is easier said than done!

So it’ll be slow and steady from here.

However, ANOH is outside that ‘new’ process and also the overall revs are real!

But the market wants to see the ‘ppt’ hit the bottom line!

Some see that as an early opportunity as it’s realistically gonna happen gradually over the near term.

Others will now sell and come back later when more progress has been made and the numbers are visible.

Take your pick! But you get well paid with the div to wait!

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Trek

Hi Stanley,

I hope you are well,

I just wish to be clear as I don’t want to miss lead anyone here with my posts which reflect my views that change frequently according to the data! My opinions can flip over a week or a year!

I have absolutely no affiliation or empathy with any stock I invest in other than it to be a vehicle to deliver wealth for my family. Period!

As far as PXC goes, I was extremely supportive but having at first made a profit I got out at around evens with my later trades following the finance delays. That was only possible due to holding a core position with a much lower average.

I have now spotted a trading/holding hybrid opportunity - as I know this stock pretty well.

I explained previously that I sold because I couldn’t see PXC covering the bond coupon.

For transparency my position now is that I still don’t see PXC covering the coupon without an equity raise.

But I also think they will get a raise and the SP will eventually respond positively! (Assets/equipment/permits etc)

I think 5p is well oversold; that doesn’t mean to say I don’t think it won’t go lower as the market view differs from mine. But I always called a risk of 5p.

Hence I traded a lot yesterday once there was liquidity.

I managed to buy some sub 4p and sell sub 4.8p and ended up with an overall average now under 5p and even a +£200 profit lol!

It was risky as I had to use other funds to trade to get my average down.

However, it came off and now I am in a position to let what I have ride, buy lower ( if they place low), or let what I have ride (core position)

That’s an insight into my investing process!

I am an active investor not ‘hold and hug!’. Albeit sometimes I hold a core position but my mind and timeframe changes regularly reflecting the latest data!

Obviously sometimes I get it wrong, often missing upside by selling too early! But I have also voided many wipeouts now by taking a more active approach! Especially with small caps!

ATM I am very disappointed that the BoD didn’t raise at 20p to cover the coupon using equity. We are so close and that little bit of dilution at the final phase would be fine.

They would have got a great response had they extended it to PI’s on the back of the secondhand eqpt buys!

Now the BoD have a lower SP and the dilemma of paying one credit card (Lombard) of with another. The bond!

I suspect neither will entertain that as the debt usage has to ultimately be accretive, I.e. for CAPEX.

Hence I see a raise and of course a huge trading opportunity!

Why?

Coz they may just pull a ‘rabbit’ and avoid a raise in which case I double my money or more from 5p!

And if they do raise it’ll now be under 5p and I will average down.

In which case the sp should eventually respond positively as the bond holders are now in deeper and PXC have the cash!

Super high risk - let’s see!!

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Trek

The week before crimbo is full of expectations from AIM punters calculating, based on the ongoing board of directors diatribe, that they will have news by year end!

Then whoopeedooda! Ten bags by year end!

So here’s some examples… like MSMN drilling will start this year. So they will start next week then!

Can anyone add to the list of pending disappointments!

MSMN - drilling

HEX -drilling

PXC - finance

MFAI - deals

AGL - deal

POLX - deal

IQAI - clarity

LND - deal

MDH - deal - already kicked the can!

UPL- deal

AVCT- clarity

Anymore to add!

No doubt there will be many disappointed punters next week…..

I can’t remember em all but I have seen a few Christmas Eve RNS’s in my day. I may not have held the stocks but it’s been an interesting revelation to say the least!

Next week is time to pss or get off the pot for many ‘lifestyle’ execs!

But don’t we Tecan’s love to trade ‘em eh! lol!

But at least here posters seem to be wise enough to really know what the risks are and how the BS flows!

Usual caveats

Trek

“ The key trend, and this has been the case throughout 2024, is that renewable energy infrastructure trusts are out of favour. This is due to interest rate rises, which have caused bond yields to rise. As a result, investors have been favouring cash and bonds, due to those asset classes being lower risk than more specialist areas, such as renewable energy infrastructure.”

https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/discount-delver-10-cheapest-trusts-13-december-2024-ii533798?utm_source=sfmc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=DailyNewsletterCanviOneCol&utm_id=225437&sfmc_id=4609723

Rate reductions next year could mark a turnaround……but following the budget inflation could be back!

Then again the push for renewables could change sentiment here!

What a conundrum!

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Trek

AMRQ through 100p as expected

DEC settling above 1300p as expected

NESF - 65.70 looks like the bottom. 12.89% yield paid quarterly for those divi chasers. Wind and solar are high yoeld atm and huge NAV discounts as institutions chase bonds and tech.

That’ll change imo as rates come down and tech looking frothy.

Usual caveats

Trek