Member Info for tonynorstrom1

I had the same exact experience with Oilman Jim - he posted comments on i3e that I thought had no basis. When I challenged him, quite vigorously I might add - he blocked me.

Anyway - I think you've probably gained - no need to waste your time reading content that has no real insight.

Your a complete Doofus Louis - the link you provided is from Oilman Jim's Twitter Page - NOT FROM SUBSTACK. Jim has a very mixed reputation on the LSE BB and on twitter- if you visit the PANR BB - a poster describes a recent interaction with Jim which seems to be typical - when he's challenged on the accuracy of his posts / tweets - he gets very defensive and blocks you. Often unable to substantiate what he saying

So if you believe Jim - he has thousands of "READERS" - what you originally said was that he had "THOUSANDS OF SUBSCRIBERS". From the information that is available on Substack - this numbers is in the hundreds maximum - if not less. So what you have posted is untrue and misleading.

I see you on the 88e board pushing Jim's 8th Jan blog again - are you on commission ?

Still promoting Oilman Jim I see Louis !!

What are the interesting comments - can you elaborate .

Louis10 - be a good chap - add something of value or f@ck off !

"Tony, is making out that they could be closing their head office to pay out more in dividends." - that's not exactly what I said which anyone with a bit of smarts (see your excluded from that group) would appreciate.

"I still think potential upside for i3e in that I struggle to see them justifying a UK office without productive assets - so close down the uk office and save the SG&A" - so this is what I said most recently on the subject. So clearly an opinion on what I THINK THEY SHOULD do if there is no North Sea Development.

SG&A expense was about $20m last year (offices, office salaries, bonuses etc) - 50% of the $20m is from the UK operations. So my question to you - can you justify $10m on an operation that produces ZERO revenue. I'm sure others here would be interested to know what you have to say on this or whether as per your earlier posts - you have nothing sensible to add.

https://www.crescentpointenergy.com/sites/default/files/news/crescent_point_acquires_kaybob_duvernay_assets_and_increases_base_dividend.pdf.

Cresent Point / Kaybob deal - 4000 boepd(50% liquids), 65k net Acres, 130 Net drilling Locations, Purchase price CAD 375m

i3 Energy - 22,000 boepd (50% Liquids) , 675k net Acres, 850 drilling locations (350 booked, 500 unbooked), Market Cap = CAD 430m.

So these are the raw headline numbers which do appear to indicate a value disconnect. I need to drill down a little into the acreage, well performance etc to see what else might be at play.

Louis,

perhaps you're having a bad week - you've posted a link to twitter not to Substack. Substack.com is a completely different application where writers can post subscription based content and collect the subscriptions.. The number of subscriptions is not publically available (only to the writer) except that they appear to post the top 25 news letters in each category with the number of subscribers - so your comments are not supported by Substack and in fact appear to be incorrect.

But good news for you - I did get and email from Oilman Jim's account and he is offering a 50% discount on the subscription to his blog valid until the 9th Jan. Good value I think for any investor that cannot be bothered to read Company RNS's but perhaps not such great value if you do take the time.

Louis10 - sorry there is no other way to say this - but you are at the very least stupid or deceitful or both.

Parge - I will get back to you on the Kaybob deal - i'll just get a little input from people who I think know the acreage.

Stas,

I must be on Oilman Jims mailing list - just got notification he is offering 50% off the normal subscription price for his news letter - valid until the 9th January - you interested?

I read an article a while back talking about the Oil Industry and when investment will return to the sector. The thesis was that when the fundamentals of an Industry improve - it takes about 2 years before investment fully returns to that sector - I.e. investors need to see improvement over a sustained period before they buy into the story and pump money in. Same can be said for Companies - 2 years ago I3E had zero production. When our SP was hovering around 10 -11p for a sustained period - I was posting that give it time “value will out”. I think we’re back in the same boat - were sailing into a few headwinds and some investors are naturally having a few doubts. The fundamentals of I3E’s business have never been stronger - baring an oil collapse - if i3e keep delivering - the market will eventually take note and the SP has to rise.

"Our fate is tied entirely to the oil/gas price."

Dont agree with this and here's a mathematical formula for you to ponder:

Revenue = Oil Price x bopd - so two variables and the second variable is why i3e were able to increase the dividend whilst the POO has fallen +30% from the 2022 H1 highs. Production growth is also why the dividend is reasonably secure and why there is a fair chance we get another hike at the end of the year.

"For some strange reason, the supermajors have bucked the trend - go figure!" They are a completely different business model - they are "Integrated Oil Companies" meaning they generate income from several sources aside from Crude Sales - i.e. refining and other businesses. I will say this though - pull up the 20 year chart for BP and ask yourself - BP or I3e ?

Herbert,

Thanks for your post - I dont think there is much appetite for another appraisal well. Joining the dots - I would be shocked if they did one (unless Repsol required one)

What they seem to be telling us is that appraisel is finished and the next step is an FDP based on a single production well based on the "reserves" already discovered and tied back to existing infrastructure (Bleo Holm).

The scenario is different for I3e and EOG imo. If there is a commercial development - upside for both i3e & EOG. If there is not - I still think potential upside for i3e in that I struggle to see them justifying a UK office without productive asssets - so close down the uk office and save the SG&A. For EOG most I think are scepticle of Serenity so probably no further down side but certainly no upside in a non-development case - so nothing more to lose but potential gain.

Lets see.

I agree with you isdeer - do not agree with Darton at all - we did rise above 24p but we've had oil fall significantly the last few days - so not meaning to repeat myself - not surprising that we have some temporary weekness in the SP.

I also do not agree with Dartrons assertion that i3e is an income not growth stock. The current Capex program is design to up production by 13% so even if oil and gas prices stay at curret levels - we could reasonably expect another decent dividend hike at the end of the year.

If Oil & Gas prices do move up meaningfully this year (which seems to be the concensus - although not guaranteed of course) - we could see a meaningfull expansion in the Capex budget meaning higher growth and even higher Shareholder returns

We also have Simonette which they are trying to farm-out - i.e. develop using other peoples money and South Simonette alone could yield another 20,000 boepd (North Simonette 15,000 boepd) and then a very large land position in Clearwater thats hardly been developed save for a few wells.

So not sure how I answered my own question - I see many meaningfull catalysts to the upside. The main headwind appears to be a looming recession but as market commentators like Nuttall and Energy Aspects have said - this wont necessarily lead to a fall in oil demand.

Patience - collect the dividend, watch the SP grow over time - what's not to like as you say. Perhaps Dartron is getting i3e mixed up with Lloyds Bank ?

Dartron,

What is your basis for saying that share price growth in the next 12 months is unlikely with 24p being the ceiling ? Were at a nearly 10% dividend yield with i3e forecasting that they will increase production to 26k boepd by the end of the year.

In addition we are already just about the cheapest Oiler in the Canadian Sector and significantly cheaper than the average company - so imo, this provides some downside protection. Providing that Oil prices dont crater and meet concensus forecasts - there's plenty of potential upside from here.

Not pushing i3e but they have a 1 hours investor session on 9th January - in signing up - you get the opportunity to post in Questions which hopefully will be addressed during the meeting. I have posted in a number of questions on Serenity. I would encourage fellow investors to do the same to get more clarity. These are what I have posted in:

1) Estimated lump sum cost of development
2) Timescale for possible development
3) Will I3e / EOG proceed without Repsol if required
4) How can i3e be so confidend of commercial resources when the Reserve Auditor Volumes were significantly less.

They dont always answer all the questions - so the more people that post in the better chance we get of getting some answers

Link can be found on the i3e twitter page.

If you wanted to see what substack says - why would you go onto twitter - why not go onto substack and check !!!

The top 25 finance blogs are listed and Oilman Jims letter is not there - once you get to # 17 the subscriptions are in the hundreds - FACT. Someone's telling porkies !

GGG,

Have you taken a look at EMO recently - any appeal at current price?

https://www.emeritaresources.com/_resources/presentations/corporate-presentation.pdf?v=0.353

Where's Scott - his friends on 88E are giving him a right old pasting - the're calling it Karma !

It will be interesting to see what the next news actually is - last year the Q4 update was only around 3rd week of February.

I've adjusted the Q4 production numbers down slightly from what I was thinking to match more closely with i3e's guidance and I have 2022 NOI coming in pretty much as they forecast at $172m

(thats assuming these average production numbers for Oct, Nov & Dec - 22090, 22891, 23464)

Probably not too surprising - Oil & Gas down quite significantly over the last 2-3 days - the share price has held up quite well considering.

Income funds have to be eyeing i3e - with the ability to grow production and dividends with relatvely low risk, low cost wells - they have to be. Provided the Oil price does not crater and with i3e's delivery - its just a matter of time before the SP re-rates higher.

Patience !

What some may not appreciate including the market it looks like- i3e typically sells its gas at the monthly index and not the spot price. Index currently around CAD 5.75