Member Info for tonynorstrom1

https://www.google.com/search?q=shubham+garg+white+tundra&rlz=1C1CHBF_enZA1031ZA1031&tbm=vid&sxsrf=AJOqlzVeN964S6abuNF3PK2uj7L7n1BPpA:1675673025225&source=lnt&tbs=qdr:d&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwj-nLa7wID9AhWWQ0EAHTugCk0QpwV6BAgKEB0&biw=1242&bih=568&dpr=1.1#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:cc6f64b0,vid:4XaLSk5sHIM

Fast forward - to the 3 Hour 51 minute mark. He clarifies his earlier remarks on share structure though its not clear to me how he arrives at his previous conclusion on the value of 88e vis-a-vis PANR. Out of academic interest - im following up with him for his analyis as i'm not currently invested in either.

Misleading I think is a little generous - a more accurate description might be a complete load of b@ll@cks:

1) What has Murphy Oil's - fixed price contracts got to do with i3e ?? i3e dont have fixed price contracts. I3e typically sell at the monthly index and hedge their production. Why would they be hedging production if they have already agreed the price ?? January's Monthly index was at around CAD 5.80 - so I dont see any issues with i3e's price assumptions and if anything gas revenue is currently ahead of forecast (albeit only 1 month into a 12 month financial year)

2) i3e's Gas Production is well over 50% hedged in Q1 with a minimum hedged price in excess of CAD 4.50. Some of the hedges are in the money in January so again revenue ahead of forecast. So even if the monthly index was to drop significantly below CAD 4.50 for the rest of Q1 - the hedges will guarantee the floor price at something a little over CAD 4.50 for the hedged production.

I have no idea why people are pulling irrelevant information out of other Companies presentations ( not bothering to read the relevant information in i3e's presentations / reports) and then drawing completely erroneous conclusions on i3e's Capex Budgets

Not sure what Mighty Mouse is smoking but just to respond to a couple of his points:

1) No I don't think that many i3e holders are holders of Petrobas - i'll just quote Eric Nuttall from a few weeks ago - "significant political risk - we dont think the dividend is secure" and a "huge amount of debt". So to answer am earlier poster who asked why i3e over Petrobas - there you have it.

2) "It feels to me many of you are holding out for a strategy that no longer exists" - not sure what the f@ck he is talking about but i3e have never looked stronger. I think 2023 is going to be good for i3e. Mighty mouse I think should stick to washing the dishes for Mini Mouse !

GGG,

Q6 (Any Development on Simonette Farmout) - Early days, still working on a development plan which any buyer would need - progress expected later in the year but no shortage of suitors as per Ryan Heath.

Q10 - (Any value in Serenity) - Majid said stoiip of 16m, 8m recoverable at 50% RF . $10 per barrel is not an unreasonable number per Majid` - not i3e'e estimate of the value but a rough order of magnitude.

Q13 - (Undervalued Canadian Assets - plan to rectify)
a) No plans for buy backs - drilling better shareholder value as per Majid
b) Clearly undervalued against peers partly due to being a new company - our delivery will start to be recognized by the market.
c) Working with 4 investment banks Canada to increase our coverage.
d) No plans to delist from London - our access to capital on the London Markets was a competitive advantage which we plan to retain. We have reduced SG&A significantly in the UK to reflect lower levels of activity.

Q14 - (27% drop in SP since August - are we in danger of a buyout)
a)Since middle of the year oil has fallen from $120 to S80 - so all share prices have fallen not just i3e's.
b) We don't think we are at risk at the moment - many companies trading at below fair value in Canada
c) If an offer were to come in we would make the best decision in the interest of our shareholders - we don't think the current SP reflects the true value of the business.
d) Were also open to asset sales rather than a sale of the company it adds value to our share holders.

Not been on the BB for a few days - has Mcshellfish or Not So Clever Bunny checked in recently - I would have thought an update on their investment thesis here is due ? Self professed experts - I’m dying in anticipation on what they have to say now.

GGG,
There’s a link on the I3E Twitter page - I’m not sure whether it is available only to those that registered prior to the event as there is a log in . If you cannot access - I will respond to your questions.

Not sure whether everyone saw the link to the recent meeting along with the Q&A Session. For Q1 to 17 - they provided the audio link which looks like it has not pasted below for those questions answered during the meeting. For the balance of the questions - they provided a written response.

For those that cannot access the link to hear tQ17 - I can provide you a summary of the response to any particular question if you are interested.

Q29: The company has never been in better shape yet our share price is down 20-30% from its highs. What are the catalysts to get the sp to the 30s and 40s this year?

The Company's share price responds to corporate activity and macroeconomic forces and is correlated to some of those macroeconomic factors particularly global oil and gas prices. It should be noted that WTI oil price fell from circa US$120/bbl in Q2 2022 to almost $70/bbl in Q4 2022. i3 Energy's share price like many of its peers responded to this price fall. Assuming commodity prices remain stable, production growth and the advancement of key assets should translate to positive share price movement.
Q30: How materially and how quickly can you pivot your oil gas weightings?

Subject to having well locations permitted (which can take several weeks), we can adjust our drilling program quickly as equipment mobilisation times are short
Q31: Without further acquisitions do you have enough drilling locations in the Clearwater to develop and operate efficiently?

We have many potential drilling locations in our current operated and non-operated Clearwater acreage.
Q32: Can you please pass on our thanks to the workforce in Canada & throughout the i3e portfolio? Thanks

Will do.
Q33: Do you think the UK business currently offers good value for money? Are you considering selling / shutting it down and focus in Canada?

The UK assets could deliver significant value. We are planning to move the Serenity field to field development plan status (FDP) at which point a higher commercial value can be ascribed to the asset.
Q34: How many clearwater holes do you plan to drill in 2023?

There are 5 gross, 3.5 on a net working interest basis in our 2023 budget.
Q35: Since the oil price is quiet volatile, isn't it risky to make projections on revenue which I3 did in the beginning of last year? This had to be updated twice due to lower oil prices which had an effect on share price

The market expects the company to make financial projections. We have projected 2023 cashflows on our budget assumption of US$80/bbl for WTI crude oil and CAD$4.5/GJ for AECO gas pricing. The market expects a forecast of cashflows. We have provided guidance on the sensitivity of net operating income (NOI) to a US$1/bbl in WTI and CAD$0.1'/GJ - the NOI changes by circa US$2.5mm in both cases.

Q23: If POO and POG develop in our favour - are you capable odfadding additional drilling as you decide? Or are there limitations (operators, long lead items)

The company does have flexibility to modify its development drilling program in Canada, which was demonstrated in May 2022 when the company expanded its budgeted 2022 drilling program from US$47mm to US$97mm. Lead times for equipment and services are relatively short in Canada which means subject to permitting, wells can be added or drilling programs modified quickly.
Q24: How about getting rid of North Sea to be a pure Canadian Play (Value enahncing I guess :-))

The current focus for the company is value enhancement and extraction from our Canadian assets as evidenced by our 2022 and 2023 budgets. The focus for the North Sea is to extract the significant potential value that exists in the Serenity discovery.
Q25: Hi gents, can Ryan/Majid outline why they feel the prior holders business models failed? Was it a case of scale or underinvestment that forced their sale, or was it the lower prices causing temporary distressed opportunities? David

A combination of low oil and gas prices causing stressed balance sheets and revised counterparty corporate strategy contributed to the low acquisition metrics for our major transactions in Canada.
Q26: Hello, I was wondering if given the current valuation the company would consider a 10% NCIB or an SIB to help improve valuation and possibly take out the institutional overhang in the stock. Additionally, do you have plans for institutional marketing in Canada and possibly a RS to get the share price out of sub $1 status?

We are not currently planning a share buyback program. We are planning to increase our marketing to Canadian institutional investors.
Q27: Given the current PDP RLI at 6.5 years, do you see this as a headwind to new shareholders joining the name? Does the company plan to acquire additional assets to try to get RLI closer to 10 years, or do you intend to boost this through drilling alone?

PDP reserves are those currently on production. A PDP RLI of 6.5 years is a healthy number. As shown on page 10 of the corporate presentation the company's total proved (TP) RLI is 12 years and the proved plus probable (P+P) RLI is circa 22 years. These are all reserves that are already on the Company's books. As the Company drills wells, the associated reserves are transferred to the PDP category.
Q28: What project are you MOST excited for this year? Thanks for the dividend increase.

Our drilling program in Canada is advancing projects across all our strategic assets, including the Simonette and Clearwater acreage.
Q29: The company has never been in better shape yet our share price is down 20-30% from its highs. What are the catalysts to get the sp to the 30s and 40s this year?

The Company's share price responds to corporate activity and macroeconomic forces and is correlated to some of those macroeconomic factors particularly

Q14: Since the announcement of the newly increased dividend, the yearly yield has been negated by a 27% drop in share price since August last year. M&A activity is strong and highly priced in Canada. Is i3 at risk of a buyout or would it and / or its institutional investors welcome one?

Q15: As the Serenity discovery is looking to progress to a one well development field and with such little of the capital budget being assigned to the North Sea assets. When can we expect to see exploration drilling of the Minos high area?

Q16: With i3 being new in Canadian production, it is often difficult for shareholders to understand just how highly prized certain of our acreages are, such as Clearwater and how they compare to our other assets and our Canadian peers. Management often talk about wells exceeding expectation and though I understand we have a lot of drill locations and i3 do provide an overall production figure, it might be good if you could share a few key wells (bopd) from time to time, so we can get a sense of just what we are achieving and how much we are exceeding expectation.

Q17: Do you have any appetite or plan to reduce the company's share count?

Q18: there were 3 wells drilled in Simonette in 2022 - what is the staus of all 3?

The company drilled 2 wells in the Simonette area in 2022. Both wells are on production.
Q19: What is the approximate lump sum cost of i3e's planned 1 well tie back on Serenity.

Development scenarios are being evaluated and costs will be known with more precision when a field development plan is finalised.
Q20: When do you expect to issue the Q4 update.

We expect to issue this in the first half of February.
Q21: What would be the total cost and anticipated timeline before serenity is flowing?

Actual costs for a one well development will depend on the development scenario and tie-back host which are still being evaluated. We would expect production to be online circa two years after FDP approval.
Q22: You may come to this later in the deck but do you see i3e undertaking M&A in 2023 or will it be an organic growth year?

Our budget for 2023 focusses on organic growth driven by the very high returns achievable from development drilling at current and forecast commodity prices. However we continue to evaluate M&A opportunities if they are strategically located relative to our current asset base, are accretive and can deliver a return comparable to our drilling program.
Q23: If POO and POG develop in our favour - are you capable odfadding additional drilling as you decide? Or are there limitations (operators, long lead items)

The company does have flexibility to modify its development drilling program in Canada, which was demonstrated in May 2022 when the company expanded its

Questions and answers from the recent presentation:

Q1: How materially and how quickly can you pivot your oil gas weightings?

We operate circa 75% of our production so have significant flexibility to optimise production. At the moment we are maximising production volumes and capacity utilisation.
Q2: Can you clarify your recent production guidance i.e. exiting 2022 at over 24k boepd yet average volumes for 2023 currently projected at 22-23k boepd. Bearing in mind some wells from 2022 program still to come online in Dec/ Jan plus the H1 2023 drill program. Would have expected 2023 projection (ave) to be 24k or more.

Q3: Wells are being drilled in Clearwater for Lithium & Helium - do I3e have any potential for these products?

Q4: In future presentations / reporting - can i3e break out sales for Oil / NGL's. Currently NGL's are lumped in with Oil which has a completely different cost structure. Better still Light Oil / Heavy Oil / Condensate / NGL's

Q5: Can you elaborate further on Serenity: a) do you have the results of the latest mapping / reserves b) Do i3e plan to proceed without Repsol / Tain

Q6: Is there any development with a farmout of Simonette?

Q7: If there is no Progress on the Assets in the North Sea - does it not make sense to close the UK offices and work out of Canada. I3e's SG&A is considerably higher than peers both on a per bbl basis and % of revenue

The company strategy is to extract value from our North Sea asset by advancing Serenity to FDP stage. Our UK SG&A has been considerably reduced over the last two years and is a small fraction of the total company SG&A.
Q8: Is i3e considering share buybacks?

We are not currently considering a share buy back program.
Q9: When will the remapping be complete and will this be subject to independent audit / CPR?

Q10: I3E still describe the Serenity development as a material development in the portfolio. Approximately what sort of value are we looking at now for Serenity, given higher drilling costs and the increased Windfall Tax in the North Sea (now at a rate of 75%)

Q11: Will 13E be fully transparent about the risk/reward economics for the Serenity well before it goes ahead with development so that this can be assessed alongside the risk/reward economics for the Canadian portfolio development assets?

Q12: How is i3 preparing for a further declines from a financial status? As an investor I love to see companies with growing cash flows, something I see i3 has done. How can i3 bolster its balance sheet to weather any storms that may arise?

Q13: Majid has stated many time how undervalued i3 is against its peers. What specific plans do you have to rectify this, e.g. share buy backs. Would you look to streamline i3e to a Canada based stock only, removing UK office location?

I'm a private investor Lewis - i'm open to all views as long as posters can back up what they say positive or negative.

That's what i've been saying all along GGG - the selling has been relatively light even with the Institutional Selling. A small buy back would mop up the relatively small number of shares and provide a bit of positive momentum killing several birds with one stone.

Q2 would be a perfect time - capex spending is very light in Q2 and depending on the POO / Gas - it could be very affordable without compromising any of their other spending plans.

Let me know when you find out Jim !

Your right Stas - last time he trashed i3e talking about the "marginal canadian assets having no value" we went from 5p to over 30p in pretty short order.

He has been talking PANR down - perhaps they are no worth a look - not that I would recommend PANR but Jim does seem to be a Contrarian Indicator

If you have a thesis and are confident of the fundamentals then patience – don’t’ assume that Institutions know more than well-researched PI”s – because 90% of the time they don’t and like you say – there are many reasons that they may be selling down other than the merits or otherwise of i3e.

Two snippets that caught my attention today – Ryan Heath on a US Roadshow stating that i3e would have to appreciate 60% to be valued at peer average. That’s quite a safety net and he believes as I do that a re-rate is due. He also highlighted the market beating dividend and potential 15% growth this year as additional reasons that PI’s should consider climbing aboard

The second is Oilman Jim asking ‘is the dividend sustainable” – yes it is Jim, at current oil and gas prices – I have i3e adding about $30m in cash this year and if prices were to fall significantly– then they have $64m in Capex to cut if required before they need to look at the dividend – another significant safety net! How are your friends on the PANR board – I see you took a bit of stick today!

....and if oil prices were to rise - then of course the dividend is not sustainable at current levels - they would have to bump it up !!

Crwys11 - your right he does present well - not sure I like the jacket though.

Louis10 = Oilman Jim ? Seems like you are fixated on Jim !!

Seems like the're onto you here Louis ! Have you told them about his private blog and book ?

https://content.jwplatform.com/videos/vJZopuwQ-AeVQvQA1.mp4

Oil Exec or Car Salesman at a Chevrolet Dealership ?

No change in valuation yet but comparing valuation multiples of a peer group they have selected:

Average 4.2 v 2.7 I3E (EV/CF)

Indicates that I3E would trade at 32p at average multiple. There are some Canadian Companies trading at significantly higher than 4.2. When I last checked and based on Shubham Gargs figures - only Vermillion traded cheaper.