Member Info for tonynorstrom1

3lb’s,

Take a look at the link to the same website that the other poster kindly provided. It has a graph with the monthly average for 2022 - I believe it is based on ave daily pricing and not monthly index. What can be clearly seen is that Gas Pricing is extremely volatile with price varying from over CAD 8.00 some months to less than CAD 4.00 other months with an average for 2022 of well over CAD 5.00.

So do I know what gas prices will be next month - no I don’t and neither do you. What’s more - does the price next month even matter - far more important given the volativity is the average price over the Qtr, half year and full year.

So your dire warnings are merely you opinion not necessarily based on any fact.

if your talking to me then it looks like you need to go back and look at the graph properly for the "current month".

I see daily price ranging from CAD 3.50 to CAD 4.00 with a line for the monthly index of CAD 5.80.

I do wish people would do some homework - I'm going to get locked up for running a nursery school without a licence !

Thanks for the link - not seen that particular page before but off the same website I use the following:

https://www.gasalberta.com/gas-market/market-prices

I checked with i3e some time back on what index they used - they confirmed the monthly.

i3e sell gas at the monthly index ($5.80 currently) - did you not know that ?

Longoil,

Was this not you on the 31st August:

"Hi all just new to the chat here, have bought 110,000 shares in the last 2 days, great entry point and a company with lots of hidden value , looking forward to the journey ahead"

Fast forward to today:

"What a dog of a share to own"

I would rephrase differently "what a turd of a post !"

"But 2022 was a once in lifetime crazy blip for gas prices. You can’t use that spike for forward looking calculations."

If your talking Europe - yes and the US also yes to some extent - but if your talking Canada then imo no !!! just check out Canadian prices v US and Europe.

No - the original point was that they incorrectly thought i3e were using USD 4.50 (CAD 6.00) for Company Projections.

Is CAD 4.50 crazily optimistic for 2023? Is this your opinion?

Average for 2022 was over CAD 5.00
January monthly index is at around CAD 5.80

I have seen some information that production of Gas has gone up an that this may depress prices - none of this though I think was in the drama queens analysis.

3LB - this has been put to bed already. Majid commented on this during the presentation and "said i think this is a typo" in reference to the $4.50.

Just some drama queen on ADFVN creating a drama out of nothing. Presentation should have said CAD 4.50 and Company projections have been made accordingly.

Serenity I think is worth diddly squat without an FDP so it makes perfect sense for i3e to proceed with an FDP if they are talking with Repsol and since the are only spending $0.6m this year. This is one potential catalyst and EOG have I indicated they hope to update further on this early this year.

Reserves - they updated in April last year although there is no reason to be this late. Some Companies plan to issue reports end of Jan although I see many issue in mid to late Feb. So I would expect late Feb / early Mar. Stas seems to have a contact so maybe he could query. So this could be a pretty decent catalyst.

They also issued a Capex Program update around 11 Feb last year so I would expect something similar this year since as per the latest presentation - there’s about $17m capex spend in January.

Q4 operational and financial update was issued about the 20th Feb last year - no reason to be this late in my opinion but this appears to be the
Approximate timetable.

So these are the expected catalysts / news releases.

Then hopefully they pull a rabbit out the hat and issue an unexpected RNS. So a bit of patience required - but shaping up to be I3E’s best ever year as predicted by WHI.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z51Ld19ypy4

More from our partner on Serenity - production as soon as 2024.

Interesting that WHI assigns no value to Serenity in there latest valuation - someone asked why. One reason perhaps is i3e are estimating recoveries of up to 50% or more. The independent reserves auditor uses a conservative RF of 16% in the low case (Single well development with other assumption on porosity, aquifer pressure etc). Recovery factors of up to 50% are only considered by the auditor for multi-well developments with water injection and if you recall in i3e's high case - they were considering up to 2 water injectors and multiple producers. So I think there is certainly a question mark over i3e's technical evaluation.

Maybe we will see Shelfish and Not So Clever Bunny back soon - it seems the're fair weather golfers only !

Some on here i'm sure hold both Companies. I bought into EOG for the leverage to Serenity which has not worked out so far.

There's a big difference in valuation between the two Companies - UJO has a little more cash, pays a dividend and has 40% of Wressel v 30% for EOG - this alone does not explain the valuation gap imo. Anyone kind enough to share a couple of thoughts to explain the apparent disconnect.

regards

https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1YqKDobNmoDxV?s=20

A very good presentation on Reserves Evaluation - Onshore Canada by Rock Creek Freak on twitter. Quite a bit different to Offshore UK. Helps to understand what i3e are up to with the drilling some of which they are describing as "Strategic"

We should see a nice little upgrade to our year end reserves due out in the next month or two as a result of the 30 gross wells drllled in 2022.

https://www.offshore-mag.com/field-development/article/14288308/north-sea-serenity-tain-fields-could-form-unitized-development

https://www.offshore-mag.com/field-development/article/14288308/north-sea-serenity-tain-fields-could-form-unitized-development

Europa gets a mention

Thanks pmanual - if enough of us ask he should at least address the question even if as I suspect i3e is too small for his fund compounded by the fact that only 10% of the shares are held in Canada,

https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/4077490/E7A144500929F7E4AB8450CFBCFD2765?partnerref=TwitterNPP

Eric Nuttall is presenting in a webcast on 19th Jan on all things oil - if you sign up for it, you have the opportunity to post in some questions. If enough of us post in a question - perhaps we can get him to share his thoughts on i3e !

Get your questions in !

Personally and imo only - I think a lot of twollop spoken about Serenity today:

1) First of all - i3e have confirmed that they would only proceed if Tain Proceed. If Tain proceeds its a real project - no messing around and an estimated 3000 bopd to i3e within about 18-20 months from FID - serious dosh.
2) Only $0.6m budgeted to spend this year - peanuts and probably less than GGG's car.
3) i3e have already confirmed that no plans to delist - so personally with limited dollars to spend and virtually **** all else for the UK office to do - what's the distraction other than perhaps interfering with a 8:30 tee off time ?

no

Personally not concerned one little bit - as far as crossing the tees and dotting the i's - not a bad question to ask.

However - Majid picked up on this himself during the interview and alluded to the fact it was a typo and should have read CAD 4.50

The hedges also indicate that the assumption should be around CAD 4.50.

So there you have it - a cast iron guarantee - no need to worry !!