Member Info for tonynorstrom1

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1003065/europa-oil-gas-working-on-multiple-fronts-during-2023-1003065.html

Interesting snipet from the EOG.L CFO right at the end of the interview.

So two possible development scenario's:

1) Serenity Developed as a unitized field with Tain
2) Serenity developed as a separate field and tied into Tain.

The CFO finished off by saying that they hope to be able to announce something on this early this year !

Interesting snipet on Serenity - "Hope we will be able to announce something on that early this year". So timeline could be quicker than some speculating here.

All our Major assets are sought after (Central Alberta, Simonette, Clearwater)

Management seem remarkably open to a sale. I could see a scenario where we sell each of the 3 to different buyers earning a significant premium to the current market cap.

There is significant catalysts coming up in the future such as Canada LNG.

Sit tight imo and collect the dividends - don’t take any notice of the idiots like Oilman Jim.

Spike - we can have different opinions but I believe the cost savings would be very significant - a guestimate 40% reduction in SG&A ($7m minimum). No need for the UK office (big saving), no need for the UK COO (big saving), no need for the technical staff (Big saving) and many other costs.

I took at look at SG&A costs in Canada on a per barrel and % of revenue basis. On a per barrel basis i3e were 2-3 times the cost and on a percentage of revenue were about double against the 4 or 5 companies I selected as being reasonably comparable. i3e's SG&A is eyewatering for a company of its size.

Decent update - light at the end of the tunnel if Oddie can deliver !

Well that is the question Spike - If you have no revenue generating operations in the uk - can you justify having S11m worth of Offices, Salaries and other Corporate Functions & Directors etc could just as easily all be done from Canada.

Why do you need highly paid directors in the UK - what are they directing ?

But what else do Majid and his team in the UK have to administer ?

I did post in a question for the recent presentation - "Can i3e justify the UK Operation if Serenity does not proceed considering 50% of the $22m SG&A is attributable to the UK".

He did not read the question word for word but did provide the answer:

1) "UK SG&A has been cut considerably to reflect lower activity in the UK" - I will be very interested to how this translates in the next set of figures
2) We will not be listing from the UK as the UK provides better access to Capital vis a vis Canada and hence provides a competitive advantage.

Its adds a couple of things we didn't hear in the i3e presentation:

1) Strongly implies discussions with Repsol Sinopec are underway
2) Confirms that under the planned development scenario - 3000 bopd net to i3e. Very material $80m of additional revenue at $80 Brent.

I think there's a fair chance this development could proceed. Currently the Bleo Holm is only working at a fraction of its rated Capacity - adding Tain and Serenity brings down significantly the per barrel operating costs not to mention the additional production albeit fairly small scale for Repsol.

Louis - Just about everyone here knows I tend to stick to the facts and back up what I say with references.

You've been caught out pumping Oilman Jims blog with nothing really to add yourself - its in black and white and there for all to see in your posting history

You've mentioned below that I mis-quote, mislead and misrepresent - please justify thsee statements - I dont think you can. Just like Oilman Jim when he's challenged !

Olivia dear - its not a simple fact - merely your opinion. You could be right but its not a fact - i3e are saying otherwise.

Toad - MANY here have said I ADD a lot of VALUE - so please try to get that right.

Everyone is welcome here, but those with an agenda other than sharing knowledge such as plugging paid subscriptions deserve a bit of stick.

Louis - not just me see a selection of comments below from only yesterday:

"I also notice he mentions dilution in panr, then mentions 88e who has only 18,000,000,000 shares in issue"

"Oil Man Jim has historically been uber critical of Pantheon. No sponsorship for posts? ?? "

"Annoying, I told you so after the event type is Snakeoil Jim" - Another fan of original content !!

"Re oilman Jim
Confirming 200 barrels only as flowrate is slightly I believe misleading" - by no means the first time either !!

I've not heard anything positive about Oilman Jim apart from Oilman Jim himself and you Louis - so not sure your going to drum up much business for his overpriced private blog here.

from the Q&A:

1) Serenity remapped – 8m bbl recoverable on a P50 basis. No need for further appraisal.
2) Work on a FDP underway but will only be developed as part of Tain. Tain FID expected in Q3
3) Rough order of magnitude valuation of Serenity is $10 per bbl with an approved FDP
4) No plans for share repurchases in 2023 – with quality of drilling inventory – drilling better use of cash.
5) Canadian Style quarterly reports required after shareholding exceeds 10% so expect shortly.
6) No plans to delist from London exchange as better access to Capital vis a vis Canada is seen as a Competitive advantage though they did say that UK SG&A has been trimmed significantly to reflect lower levels of activity in UK (I will be interested to see what this looks like)
7) Push to increase i3e’s exposure in Canada – talking to 4 investment banks about coverage. Expect to see something shortly.
8) Lots of talk on blue sky potential of Simonette and Clearwater at less than 5% of current PDP.
9) Open to selling the Company or specific assets at the right price though no indication of any current offers. Ryan did say that they have been approached several times by different parties about selling specific assets – I think he mentioned the Cardium.

No capital expenditures this year but $0.6m spend planned on work required to develop the FDP. So timing on the FDP submittal / approval dictated by Repsol Sinopec. If they achieve FID in September an FDP submittal / approval could be relatively quick and with this i3e could potentially sell Serenity for the +/= $80M mentioned by Majid so could be monetized in a year or so from now (so a lot closer than 4 years away)

Majid said specifically no more appraisal drilling - the development if it moves forward will be based on data in hand. Also both I3E on Liberator East and Repsol on Tain had production within 12 months of an FDP based on single well tie backs to existing infrastructure. 3 years or more applies if you talking dedicated infrastructure.

Herbert,

I wont talk about i3e here other than Serenity which I think you summarized well:

1) They wont develop without Tain - need to make a commercial agreement with Respsol Sinopec.
2) Tain FID decision by Q3
3) Remapping Complete and up to 20m bbl Oil in Place, 8-10m bbl recoverable. No need for a Third Party Reserves Auditor - not required for an FDP.
4) As far as what Serenity might be worth - Majid said maybe around $10 per bbl with an approved FDP - could be more. So $20m to EOG but only moves forward if Tain moves forward.

I think I heard from Oddie or read somewhere that it will take about 3 months to get the money back from escrow. That was shortly after the result of the appraisal well - so would expect the funds shortly.

As far as EOG - they are presenting in a few days - so lets hope that Oddie has some positive news to update with

GGG - Please give us your analysis.

More than happy to answer any question - what's the question?

As to your posts - the're virtually all promoting Oilman Jim's blogs, letters and books and letting posters know how many subscribers or readers he has - not very interesting - but hey ho, that's all imo.

https://www.whitetundra.ca/pricetargets

NOI is pretty much unique to i3e - most Companies in Canada report Fund Flow from Operations which is a much better metric imo.

Another source of CF & FCF multiples is Eric Nuttall on twitter - he has numerous graphs.

Good Q&A - at 1st read it doesn't sound too bad - it clarifies that they think they can sell the blended product at a 10 -20% discount to ANS Crude.

Does anyone know what the assumption was before the latest test results - if they were assuming selling at 100% ANS - then a 10-20% discount does alter the equation slightly - but was this the assumption?