Member Info for tonynorstrom1

Hotchip - when they finally announce the dividend policy / payment - I hope you hold up your hand and admit you were wrong and apologize for all this non productive discussion on 10 dividend payments. It is pretty much in black and white - you just need to change the prescriptions !

TheA20 - one of the most balanced posts I’ve seen today - I’m with you !

Take a pill GGG and go lie-down for an hour.

took a quick look at DEC - YTD stock movement:

DEC = + 10%
I3E = +50%

Over 3 years:

DEC = +10%
I3E = +60%

So ok DEC is currently playing a higher divided - but on a total return basis is lags except over the last 3 months. If and when oil & gas stocks come back into favour - it looks like i3e should do much better.

Fact Check em stas !!!

https://boereport.com/2022/12/19/surge-energy-inc-announces-closing-of-the-previously-announced-strategic-core-area-acquisition-reiterates-anticipated-14-increase-to-dividend-confirms-2023-capital-and-operating-budget-guidance-and/

Really interesting article on Surge Energy - Shubham Garg's top pick probably just ahead of i3e. A lot of parallels with i3e - similar production though they have higher liquids %. Stragegy seems similar. A couple of quotes from the article:

"Management’s primary corporate goal is for Surge to rank as the top total rate of return, growth plus dividend paying crude oil company in the Canadian energy sector"

"In addition to Surge’s operating strategy, the Company’s increasing shareholder returns business model focuses on returning free cash flow to shareholders through disciplined capital allocation, together with modest growth in production per share. Independent research has ranked the growth, plus increasing compounding dividend business model, as one of the best investing strategies over the last 75 years[4]."

"Phase 1: Return approximately 25 percent of free cash flow to shareholders through the Company’s anticipated, increased base dividend of $0.48 per share per annum. The remainder of free cash flow will be allocated to debt reduction until net debt is reduced to $250 million;"

"Phase 2: Return approximately 50 percent of free cash flow to shareholders, with 25 percent allocated to the base dividend, and 25 percent allocated to strategic share buybacks, acquisitions, and/or variable or special dividends, until net debt is reduced below $175 million; and"

"Phase 3: Return approximately 75 percent of free cash flow to shareholders once net debt is reduced below $175 million. 25 percent of free cash flow will be allocated to the base dividend, 50 percent allocated to strategic share buybacks, a modest growth wedge, and/or variable or special dividends, and 25 percent will be allocated to strategic acquisitions and/or further net debt repayment."

Current Dividend yield is 5.6%. I'm still trying to find a table that provides the dividend yield of all Candaian producers but i think i3e's current yield of about 8% stacks up very well against most Candian Producers.

Many Canadian Producers have drifted down - i3e nore than most. Over the last 3 months Surge has outperformed i3e by about 10% albeit that it has also fallen.

Excellent news - critical to get the really important news out first. Screw the production update, Capital Budget and Dividend.

Nice to know that he is well incentivized with a glob of free shares.

That's from Darcyslaw on the CEO CA forum -a pretty sharp cookie. What he's saying is approximately correct - but not sure why he is comparing the revenue from gas at a price close to the top of its 12 month range with Oil pretty much at the bottom.

He also makes the point that there are some pretty competetively priced hedges in early 2023 relative to the current POO which protect the downside.

We just need i3e to deliver some good news on the close of its 2022 drilling program and we should be off to the races.

Ok - now we've heard the bull case for oil - where is our Contrarian Sage to give us the flip side of the coin ?

No need to bow Toad - but I should start charging you for the research !

“Being 'cheap' is rarely enough or the share prices of those would be rising” - that is subjective, not a fact and merely your opinion.

Being cheap , have the ability to grow production, net cash and prime acreage - that offers some downside protection and a great base from which to propel the SP higher.

"Ptal was slated here" - quite right too ! When illegal marauding natives permitting oil barges to sail after a month or two embargo is considered conducive to a sucessful long term business plan ???? - what more do you need - a punch on the noggins to realize there is a problem !

One Company a trend doth not make. I think you need to take a basket of Companies before you can start drawing conclusions on the effectiveness of dividends or buybacks.

Birchcliff has its own issues - the main one for me is no production growth in 2022 or 2023. If your looking for a progressive dividend - then growth is critical. Maybe you might consider what the Birchcliff SP might look like without the buybacks and handsome dividends.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canadian-cash-flow-machine-birchcliff-energy-sees-shares-fall-161016905.html
https://1drv.ms/u/s!AoSqKfvcR4IMgYMtY5OnrOneASmyhA?e=UDTyre

Ive included a chart with a random selection of Canadian Oil and Gas Companies - the only Company with a worse perfromance than i3e is Birchcliff Energy - so perhaps not the best company to demonstrate your point.

I think there is no single magic pill for upping the SP - its a combination of things - growth, dividend, buybacks, debt, acreage, FCF Yield etc. i3e ticks nearly all the boxes. I think when they release the updated production figures/2023 Capital Program/2023 Dividend policy - then provided they have delivered on the 2022 drill progam - were going to see the evaluation gap close - it has to - otherwise Einsteins Theory on Black Holes is no longer valid !

Also consider which sector has out-performed this year and which sector is paying the best dividends and re-purchasing the most stock and whic sector is still the most undervalued against historical norms ! Go buy your Lloyds Bank shares if you want to - but im still looking to buy my ski-lodge in Switzerland !

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3917572-birchcliff-crew-i3-rated-buy-as-cannacord-expands-energy-coverage

GGG - I've more or less confirmed the NOI as long as i3e come close to meeting their year end production target. The Sividend - i'll stick with my original 0-10% hike but probably more in the 5-10% on a monthly basis but i'll be happy with your 25% hike if it happens.

Not I dont think you have edited the RNS - I was pointing out that the piece you quoted also says "monthly" - but you are too stuborn and argumentative to acknowledge it.

"where is the notification for the January dividend" - I think it is quite obvious, the January dividend is not the normal notification - they are reviewing the Capital Program and also the level of the dividend for 2023 - increase, decrease or whether it stays the same - so its not just the confirmation of the ex dividend and payment date but the actual value of the payment.

Still waiting for your apology !

"@PP - clearly anyone expressing unpopular alternative views is either SO in disguise, the PR dept, on drugs or a liar - or perhaps all of these. I disagree with 50% of what you say, but good on you for challenging the current line."

I posted unpopular alternative views that turned out to be reasonably accurate - I recall you berating me and sticking up for your buddies McSelfish and Not So Clever Bunny - both who have done a runner by the way. I think you need to recalibrate and think hard on which posts you take in !

Fairdealer,

From your post below quoting the February RNS which I will trust is an accurate quote:

"i3 will declare its first MONTHLY dividend during the first half of February for payment in March."

From earlier in the same RNS:

"i3 Energy plc (AIM:I3E) (TSX:ITE), an independent oil and gas company with assets and operations in the UK and Canada, is pleased to announce that it is moving from a bi-annual to a MONTHLY schedule for its dividend payments."

From the latest i3E presentation page 6:

"2023e Dividend(6) £20,395,706"

Note 6: "(6) Based on current run-rate dividend forecast"

Get your calculater out and multiply the curret dividend by 12 - hey presto you come up with £20,395,706

So put this together and its quite clear that i3e's intention is to pay a monthly dividend EVERY month (12 payments). You would have to be pretty argumenatative and stuborn to think otherwise. So me and Panama will wait patiently for your humble apology.

Fairdealer - whats the point of your post - a monthly dividend is paid monthly and their are twelve months in a year !!

What leaves you to doubt that they would pay only 10 months in 2023 - makes no sense - your post makes no sense !

Porkpies = Simon Oddie ?

They have been paying monthly sividends since March. I have a high degree of confidence that we will get a further 12 sividends in 2023.

Aimshame,

Is there a recent Mail on Sunday article on EOG - not seen it, can you post the link.

Thanks