Member Info for tonynorstrom1

Ming:

I expected them to give a fact based opinion which they have done and which happen to mirror my own thoughts.

It looks like you have a bit to say - what did you expect. Everyone on here I think has a lot of respect for your opinion - so spit it out !

Well this is what WH Ireland think:

"Conclusion: i3 Energy is currently paying a sustainable 11.1% dividend yield, while growing production and strengthening its balance sheet. The investment is perfect, in our opinion, for a buy and hold strategy to capitalise on the structural bull market for oil which has, in our opinion, only begun. We believe that the company is also exceptionally well positioned to
ride out the storm of economic possibilities ahead. Under an upside scenario, where value is ascribed to undrilled well locations, i3 Energy’s net 450+ undrilled locations make it a standout winner relative to almost all its peers (comparing market cap to the latent value of undrilled well locations). i3 Energy’s 50% liquids and 50% gas production split provides
natural diversification. We see natural gas as the fuel of the future, albeit prices may remain soft until the end of 2023. We have a robust outlook for oil prices with almost all oil-specific fundamentals looking bullish for 2023 in our opinion."

The analysts at WHI obviously not paying any attention to Jims comments on the dividend - but there again - who does?

So im my opinion if you believe in the fundamentals of oil and gas albeit with some temporary weakness in Gas - i3e is looking very strong and well postioned for production and capital growth. Just a bit of patience required and were being compensated with an 11% dividend whilst we wait !

To be fair to Majid - when he said Q4 update release will be in the 1st Half of February - he didn't say whether he was talking 2023 or 2024.

Some Companies are providing monthly updates and are only just putting out the January update now !

I took a look at your post History Jim - this is what I found:

"I'll stick around here and watch the inevitable descent to zero. Not short, just find watching you all (in particular the couple of company paid posters) quite amusing."

Posted by you on the Pantheon BB on the 21st Jan, I would be pretty chuffed if I was a Pantheon Investor - up nearly 20% since your call and with you record of getting things completely wrong - I would be encouraging you to stick your size 10 in your gob again and help push it back to the £1 mark.

"Do they not believe the dividend is sustainable?"

Posted by you on this board on the 31st Jan. I know numbers and analysis is not your game - your more of a cut and paste kind of guy , parroting others such as Malcy et al - But what do you think? My numbers tell me the dividend is covered a couple of times over - if this was not the case - non of your pump and dump schemes work !

Louis 10 = Oilman Jim

Not sure on the investment thesis here but one thing i would point out is Oilman's Jim poor record of actually calling things right.

This is what he said about i3e just before it 5x bagged - https://1drv.ms/u/s!AoSqKfvcR4IMgYMw_I1iWwKsplJjjA?e=JmJIT2

He's also been talking doen PANR recently - seems to have called that one wrong also.

Has he mentioned his overpriced montly news letter - worth a ship i would say !

Louis 10 = Oilman Jim Promoting his paid blog - its rubbish by the way and probably the most over priced news letter on Bidstack - check it out - not !

Oilman Jim (Louis 10) - I could not see where you actually forecast that - do you have a link.

This is what you posted in late 2020 that proved to be spectactularly wrong:

https://1drv.ms/u/s!AoSqKfvcR4IMgYMw_I1iWwKsplJjjA?e=JmJIT2

I see your latest comments on PANR seem also to be off the mark. Not sure why anyone would follow you - you seem to be clueless.

Stas - where do you see the 501 well - its only showing me the top 100.

Also if you pull up Rubellite - they have about 50 wells, if you look at the detail in the licence of some of the wells - you can see i3e's 50% interest.

GGG - meant 2022 NOI projection.

Older and wiser,

I thought I already answered that question below - it must not have been clear - so to restate - As per the spread sheet I run with WTI $75 and gas at CAD 2.50 - revenue covers the Dividend and the 2023 Capex Program and cash stays roughly flat.

The same could be said for 2024 except theoretically production should be 10-13% higher than 2023 so assuming the same prices (WTI $75, Gas CAD 2.50) - i3e would have some room to bump up the dividend assuming they maintain the same payout ratio’s. So in my opinion perfectly sustainable.

GGG - my number for the Q4 update shows them hitting their projected 2023 NOI number almost dead on — so with the limits of accuracy - they could be just above or just below as per my sheet - my bet is pretty close to dead on.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/listdetails/High-Dividend%20Yield:%20Energy/fl-088478c05d95?src=fxins&listSrc=Microsoft&miid=AA17rQrx&li=AAggNb9

https://twitter.com/WhiteTundraSG/status/1628588743388205061/photo/1

"Onshore crude inventories have moved around to begin the year, with ???? stocks building and panicking O&G investors whereas Russian inventory is falling by roughly the same amount!

Rest of the world is flat at exactly 2.204B barrels while demand continues to rise. Invest accordingly. "

Shubham Garg

GGG - yes, I run the sheet with foecasted production based on i3e guidance.

I dont think thats the reason at all - this is old news. Oil & Gas Prices have fallen significantly over the last 6 months - i3e has down graded NOI twice as a result. Investors Chronicle or Morningstar whoever have done the estimate are months behind.

I think you're right Wolfbag - there's nothing stopping them cutting the dividend if exceptional circumstances dictated even though the RNS was pretty clear that the dividend was the "minimum" to be paid.

However, as per my previous post, the dividend is really well covered and I dont see prices getting anywhere close to a level where they would have to consider a cut.

In addition, 65% of the Capex Program is spent in Q3 and beyond so they have 3 months or more to monitor prices and see whether any adjustments to the Capex is required - it may even be an increase as it was in 2022 !!!

If the current SP malaise is due to concerns over the sustainability of the Dividend - then the market is an Ass ! - atleast currently.

If I run the spreadsheet at WTI = $75 & Gas at CAD 2.50 ($1.85) from today through the end of 2023 - then the revenue covers the dividend and the full Capex Program and year end cash is roughly the same as at the beginning of 2023 - i.e no draw down. I should point out that WTI has averaged about $78 YTD.

Lets go one step further and run at WTI = $75 and Gas at CAD 1.50 ($1.11) - thats a further 40% discount to the current AECO gas price - then dividend is still fully covered and I estimate the Capex Program would only need to be cut by about $15m (out of a total $64m) to avoid drawing down cash. So even at this price scenario (which I personally dont see over the course of a year) - the dividend and a decent Capex Program are well funded.

As I said - the market is an Ass !

Possibly explains why there was no RNS today - ive got all my previous predictions / forecasts wrong. But if i were to place an eachway bet - Q4 update tomorrow or else Wednesday !

Stas20,

The link you provided covers some of the reasons - it could be to do with proprietary information, technical information or even Confidentiality agreements with partners. This cropped up before in a previous i3e presentation covering Clearwater and I quizzed i3e what it meant. In that particular case it was to do with a partner requirement and a strategic land aquisition that had not been declared yet to the market.

So not uncommon and could be due to one of many things that may or maynot be commercially significant . Bottom line is you will probably have to ask i3e to find out / provide an explanation.

GGG -

Using i3e's SP three years or so ago as a Comparator at a stage when it was pre spud on its 1st and only oil proven asset (liberator), zero revenue producing and also supposed to be developed on a free or nearly free carry (which turned out to be a red herring). So this was what the 220p was based on that lasted a matter of weeks before the bitcoin like bubble bust. So of course I'm comparing performances just after the pivot to Canada - to base on 220p would just not make any sense and my mind boggles that you seem to think it does. i3e is just a completely different Company now - a conservatively managed producer, leading dividend payer and crucially which differentiates it from Companies like BP - has significant growth catalysts.

BP is essentially the same company / business model now as it was 20 years ago - upstream, refinining, petrol stations and mars bars. Its SP had gone nowhere in 20 years and I would bet its more of the same over the next 20 years. So reasonable to look at the SP over this period and gauge how effective the business model is / was - pretty poor as an investment proposition in my opinion even accounting for the dividend. You've certainly moaned a lot about i3e's performance which has bagged x4 for you in a couple of years and is paying you a 10% dividend - and now you are trying to spin BP as decent - really - FFS - !!!

Interesting fact on the BP's outstanding shares which Mighty Mouse seems to think will guarantee growth - check out the shares outstanding back in 2010 with now - very similar - so it seems the buybacks have only just kept pace with stock awards and the like - so BP - no thank you. Not sure why you and Minnie keep bringing up here. I only comment on it to highlight what I see as the advantages of a stock like i3e over BP and the like.

GGG - let’s just agree to disagree on dividends and. Buybacks.

Your comments on BP are just plain wrong as well a what you think are like for like comparisons. Someone else commented here (which I happen to agree with ) that BP is likely to be range bound over the next 5 -10 years I.e. after 20-30 years the SP will have been treading water whereas it looks like I3E could be multiples of where it is now 5 years time - at least it has the catalysts / potential . BP reminds me of Tobacco Companies - difficult to see where the growth is coming from.

I should acknowledge that the table was provided courtesy of Shubham Garg.