Member Info for tonynorstrom1

Hey and anyone reading Jim’s rubbish on the dividend - ask him to provide his numbers ! If he’s run them and im not sure he has enough knowledge to do it , but if he has - he would know the dividend is well covered.

Come on Jim stop the baseless rumours and provide your numbers !!

Justbe - I am absolutely certain Louis10 is Jim - look at his posting history promoting his own news letter and book. Look at the shares Louis10 is posting on a the shares Jim is covering in his news letter.

In addition Louise threw a couple of insults my way which were a bit strange - something like “you sound like a bitter retail loser” strange but very very like the wording Oilman Jim used a couple of years ago on his Twitter when I challenged him - there’s absolutely no doubt Louis20 = Oilman Jim

And for the record - I am not a paid promoter. Jim is just trying to discredit me.

If anyone has any doubts - they can email the company and ask. I3e know who I am because I have asked them many question via email over the last year or so.

There was a lot of noise earlier in the month about AECO gas prices - so now we just about have the score card for Q1. The monthly index is calculated based on the weighted daily average of gas contracts sold in the prior month. We dont know what these are exactly but we do know the daily prices and assuming that the sales are spread uniformly which should be should be a reasonable approxmimation then the monthly Index for March will be about CAD 2.60

I3e are roughly 50% hedged (gas) in Q1 and the montly Index applicable to the unhedged portion of gas sales is CAD 5.80, CAD 3.80 & CAD 2.60 for Jan, Feb and March respectively. The hedged price for each of the 3 months is approximately the same at CAD 4.84.

So combining all of this i3e recieved about CAD 4.46 on average in Q1. Maybe a few appologies in order for those that said i3e didnt know what they were doing.

Q2 gets interesting since i3e has only hedged about 15% of gas production so far at USD 1.46 (CAD 1.98). So the smart monthly (counter party providing the hedges) are betting that gas falls below CAD 1.98 if the're going to make any money. Normally you would expect i3e to be 50% hedged at this stage so it looks like i3e perhaps think that gas will be above CAD 1.98 and so not worth hedging too much production - keep watching !

“… we are now on course to deliver positive YE2022 financials and reserves data by the end of March."

I said it GGG based on the above statement in the Q4 update. Have I over interpreted the words - A pretty embarrassing statement to make if i3e miss NOI guidance again.

I plugged in the Q4 production numbers after the update and I have the NOI almost bang on with the previous guidance - certainly close enough that I think Majid will drain the Oil from his Jaguar if required and add to the coffers to ensure he delivers the number.

ok - i've written down 23,472 - lets compares notes after the Q1 update ! I like humble pie !

Stas - I would caution that there is a big difference between exit rates and average production for the quarter. If your trying to forecast revenue - then the best numbers are the average for the quarter or better still average for the month (but they dont give us monthly figures). But your right - the trajectory is very positive.

Keep a note of the numbers in your post and compare to the Q1 update when they report - you will see what I'm talking about.

Thank you for the comments - much appreciated - It would have been massively deflating to wake up this morning and discovered that most fellow posters / investors had a dim view of my posts and the motives behind them.

Sharing good information amongst genuine PI's I see as a win win which is why I do it. I go after false information because there're cheating or trying to cheat all of us - why let them get away with it!

Changing subject - Europa Energy are hosting a presentation tonight with a Q&A session. An opportunity for investors here to get a update on Serenity. Post in your questions!

https://twitter.com/LondonSouthEast/status/1630186004882571264?t=iC2yeEXSuwNUWCZC2fdQvg&s=35

I dont know whether anyone recalls - but the CEO said he expected to be able to update the market on Serenity early Q1 / H1 - I dont recall which. Seemed a bit of a bold statement seeing that i3e have not said similar. Interesting that CFO is hosting the presentation again and not Simon Oddy - does that mean anything ?

Just out of interest - do other posters here feel that I over ramp i3e and mislead fellow investors to just to promote my own position. This is something that I try not to do - I usually give my opinion and provide the supporting data to back up why i hold that opinion. My purpose is not to enrich my self per se but to provide a win win situation for genuin PI's and at the same time out those people that are spreading misinformation.

I thought it a little bit rich that Toad should make that accusation earlier today and then not quote the facts 100% correctly and put his own spin on it. If my posts are not taken in this spirit - I have no issue in cutting down the information I share and limit my comments to just fact checking those that do have a problem with the facts / real numbers.

Its not balance posting a negative / contrarian view just for the sake of going against the crowd unless there is substance behind what you post and dont poke someone in the eye and expect not to get a poke back.

Anyway - GLA and onward and upwards.

Jim - Kettle Pot Black !!!

Toad - this is what you actually said:

Solid results; good company, but significant downgrade in I3E price target to @31.6p from 66p on 12 Sep 2022. THAT'S LESS THAN HALF THE EXISTING TARGET (no its not - Stas is right - you need to hand back your CSE maths certificate - you failed) AND THIS IS THE HOUSE BROKER WHO IS BEING PAID TO HELP SELL THE SHARES (no - this is your negative take on things - Brokers are paid to produce reports - thats how it works - so yes its promotional material but so what - everyone knows this - they dont need a monkey to tell them)... Sorry, this needs to be mentioned for a balanced view, which people here have edited out of their cut & paste jobs.

So i'm retracting your C Minus - and now awarding an " F" for posting incorrect and misleading information and wasting peoples time !

Malcy !

Jim,

You’re on here parading as Louise 10 (lie # 1). Your now accusing Scott126 of being a paid promoter - you didn’t even know him 6-8 weeks back - how do
You know who he is (lie # 2). Now you are trying to say that Scott and me are one and the same - I think just about everyone here knows that’s not the case as well as the people on the PANR & 88E BB (lie #3). Then there is the subtle rumours about the sustainability of the I3E dividend as well as debt issues at PANR that you have absolutely no clue about - and this is just the tip the ice burg.

How would Scott School you - some one here said youre a smart ass - I would say no - your a Dumb Ass. Scott is reasonably smart - there’s no doubt he would school you on 88e or PANR - in fact he’s asked you a couple of questions you are yet to respond to.

Marcy makes you look like a gimp !

raxfactor,

Decent argument and good video and may well turn out to be correct but I would counter with the following:

1) Recessions dont necessarily equate to reduced demand - several oil analysts have pointed to data that shows since the early 80's there have numerous recessions / slow downs - only 4 have led to demand destruction - 2021 due to Covid, 1997 (Financial Crisis) and twice in the early 80's.

2) Oil demand will be driven primarily by Countries outside of the US & Europe such as China, Far East and South America

3) The video shoes a shallow recession scenario which may or may not be correct - but it seems to be the prevailing view which would suggest that Oil Demand is not going to fall off a cliff.

4) Payout ratio is over 2 after accounting for stay flat capex - so the dividend at present looks safe with hopefully enough reserves to ride out any short term weakness in demand.

High cost producers are going too suffer 1st and I believe Companies with a model and assets similar to i3e are in the sweet spot.

Your a fraud Jim - you've been outed on numerous boards. Promoting your paid newsletter is one thing but then going onto BB's and spreading lies and rumours about Companies you clearly know nothing about - that's something else !

Go and antagonize Scott over on the PANR / 88E board - you've got nothing usefull to add here (and probably also nothing useful to add there but i'd rather you go over there and let Scott school you !)

"The investment is perfect, in our opinion, for a buy and hold strategy to capitalise on the structural bull market for oil which has, in our opinion, only begun. We believe that the company is also exceptionally well positioned to ride out the storm of economic possibilities ahead. Under an upside scenario, where value is ascribed to undrilled well locations, i3 energy’s net 450+ undrilled locations make it a standout winner relative to almost all its peers (comparing market cap to the latent value of undrilled well locations)"

This is the investment thesis for me

1) Strong balance sheet able to cover the dividend and capex at current prices with some cushion if oil prices go lower.
2) Long term buy and hold playing into the structural bull market which commentators like Nuttall think could last 7 years or more.
3) in 2025 LNG plants come on line in Canada driving up gas prices to multiples of current prices.
4) 10-13% production growth forecast this year - assume they do 13% a year for the next 5 years (seems very doable at this point) - that translates to over 42,000 boepd in 5 years time and a SP of 2 to 3 times current even without a sector or company rerate. This ignores didvidends which others here have calculated at doubling your investment in 7 years.
5) Potential for capital appreciation of undeveloped acreage. If they prove up Simonette and get a farm in partner - they have the potential to boost production by 25% or more a year and do it with someone elses money.

so seems pretty spectacukar to me and the cards are already in i3e's hands.

I invite Toad to come on here now and give the Contrarian view so as to ensure balance !

"In October 2022 the Company completed operations on the Serenity appraisal well in the UKCS. i3 continues to work with its partner Europa Oil and Gas to advance a field development plan for a one well development for the Serenity field."

This is what they stated in the RNS - progressing the FDP but nothing about production - where did you get that from?

Let us know which opinion you have an issue with - or was it just a random throw away comment.

Personally I have no interest in what you think about brokers - but if you have an opinion on somethink they have said about i3e - im interested in that. Tell me you have an opinion or are we just talking about rubbish ?

"I have known WHI and its predecessors for more than 30 years and place absolutely zero store by their opinion." - I'm sure they will be pretty upset with this - who are you again in case they ask.

So this is why its important to have your own view on things to be able to sift through the noise and pick out what is really important.

So with your more than 30 years of expertise - what did you think that WHI got wrong. It seemed like a pretty fair appraisel of the current state of affairs to me.

Toad - I posted the entirity of WHI's "conclusion" so no editing there but you are correct to point out that WHI have lowered their price target due to ongoing gas price weakness in the US.

However in your rush to play the Charitable Contrarian - saviour of the less informed PI - you've completelyt screwed up the downgrade figures - so shame on you for posting misleading information.

These lower price targets are entirely the result of WTI and AECO falling from the highs of $120 and $7.50 at their peak in the middle of last year and nothing to do with Company execution which as Stas pointed out was/is excellent.

IMO current commodity prices are fully discounted in the share price and some. i3e is trading at a FCF yield of something around 25%. For reference the S&P trades at around 3% and in addition i3e is just about the cheapest of all 55 Candian stocks. So whilsts its possible the SP could drift down further - if commodities behave as expected - the path of least resistance is up.

So for balance and meat - i'm going to give your post a C minus - you need to up your game !

Nothing wrong with a contrarian view as long as it backed up with a bit of thought process - im waithing to hear whether its thought noddle or hot air - so lets hear it Ming - what have you got ?

Couple of interesting snipets from the update:

1) very little gas hedged in Q2 and beyond - about 14% of gas production and at about CAD 1.80. I'm guessing that hedging price is so low that its worth the risk of gas prices surprising to the upside.

2) Next 3 wells in Simonette to be drilled in the Dunvegan and Wilrich formations. With the South Montney producing at over 1000 boepd - you might have expected i3e to drill another well there first. It looks like a strategic decision to further delineate the acreage and prepare for a farm-out ?

3) So it looks like i3e have confirmed that they will meet their previous guidance of $172m NOI in the full year results. I plugged in the Q4 production numbers and thats what my spread sheets says also - just !

4) As Stas already pointed out - great that they seem to be ahead of the game for the 2023 program and also pointing towards a positive reserves update.