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I doubt it - any "material" announcement is normally made at 7am.

Interesting RNS released by Jersey Oil this morning - does it remind anyone of something ?

I must say that I agree 100% with Olderandwiser and i3e have been pretty aggressive with their growth strategy and pushing up the dividend - no need to over do it with debt particularly at current oil and gas prices - particularly gas.

The heavy crude discount has narrowed from around $28 to $15. Worth another $1.7m to I3E on its Clearwater Production.

Also AECO monthly index for April looks like it’s going to be about CAD 3.00 or perhaps a shade under. So an improvement on March. If we can get through April - we might see some strengthening in gas prices closer to I3E’s forecasts.

Liquids Sales £158,160,129
Gas Sales £83,458,838
Royalty Payments -£31,255,445
Revenue £215,363,288
Opex -£68,657,752
NOI £140,682,926
NOI $173,296,575
Hedging Loss -£32,487,341
Cash Flow £80,213,425
Capex -£72,419,978
Year End Cash £17,188,200
Year End Debt £28,000,000

What are we to make of Simon Oddie's sudden retirement - all a bit odd and very sudden. Is it a tacit admission that he ****ed up with Serenity ?

Glad to see that they did not splurge a load of confetti shares on the new CEO but on the other hand - with half a dozen or more small PI's here holding more shares than the CEO - hardly a ringing endorsement.

Also not happy to See Oddie staying on as a Non executive Director - he's failed - get him off the payroll !!

thank you for that correction Stas - not sure where my head is this morning - so i3e with 30,000 nets acres in the montney but still 180 potential drilling locations and enough to raise production by 30,000 boepd as per i3e presentations.

So this is an interesting tweet from Shubham. He's said for quite a while that the data out of the EIA is very poor and that the data he was looking at indicated a draw already in Oil supplies.

https://twitter.com/WhiteTundraSG/status/1640803343986741248

(Nice to see Panama Pete got out of the right side of the bed this morning !)

Sloppy research on my part - the latest i3e presentation says 180 locations (79 South & 101 North)

There's a webinar on the Cresent Point Website explaining the transaction - worth a listen and helps in understanding the value a little more - So its not just about the NOI multiples.

i3e has a very sizeable Simonette position - about 130k net acreas (versus about 250k in the Spartan Delta / Cresent Point Deal). The acreage comes with about 600 potential drilling locations and 20 years of reserves. I'm not sure that we've heard a recent number for the potential number of drill locations for Simonette but its currently nowhere near 600 - however, this could change - i3e spent about $8m on Siesmic in 2022 so they may well have identified many more locations. The two main areas they acquired were Gold Creek East and Gold Creek West which are about 40km west of our Simonette Acreage - so pretty close.

Simonette is relatively undeveloped so I think deals like this will generate a lot more interest in the area - our year ending reserves report could be quite interesting !

That’s correct and you can calculate what that costs - basically costs in the region of $10k to $12k per boepd. So about $30m is stay flat (or maintenance Capital) and the balance is Development Capital.

Decline rates can be up to 50% in the 1st year on new wells. The overall decline rate is relatively low at about 11% but this includes hundreds of old wells at the bottom end of the curve. It’s like an experiential curve with the decline rate shallowing out over times.

your sounding desperate Pete !

I personally think Shubham is great - the only issue with his valuations is that they are run at a cashflow or free cash flow multiple of 8 - is this realistic ?

Joe,

Thanks for that - a bit of usefull input but really unnecessary negativity imo:

1) I don’t see governance as an issue - imo I3E Management are trustworthy. Yes a couple of sloppy RNS’s and other issues - but minor house keeping issues imo and something they can take care of .

Again - have you contacted the company to express your concerns or do you believe it more constructive to post these comments here.

2) There’s no shortage of money - i3e are printing money at current prices. Sure they would have to align spending - primarily Capex to reflect commodity prices but there again - they did this last year and ended doubling the Capex program. Why do you think money is in short supply?

Good points Stas - will add the link although I think Q8 needs to be sharpened a bit. They have already addressed this in part i.e looking to make progress on the potential farm out of Simonette in H2 - they said they need more data in order to prepare an information pack and they are also planning and additional drill this year.

They've also said that there open to a sale of part or all of their assets at the right price - so im not sure that there going to say much more than that without issuing and RNS.

I'll see whether anyone else has any comments and then fire off .

Stas20 - here's the draft - comments

There has been some recent discussion on a couple of Bulletin boards both in the UK and in Canada about the valuation disconnect between i3e and peers and why this is. I have input from the LSE Board as well as Shubham Garg along with a couple of very well-informed Investors on the CEO.CA Bulletin Board in Canada.

1) Communications / PR
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2l1ZSR2KOP4 (Vox Markets - Fund Manager Series - Gervais Williams of Premier Miton)
If you scroll to 12:40 – Paul Hill is discussing i3e – he’s very complimentary about the numbers and cannot believe how cheap i3e is and the punch line is that he has never heard of i3e before. Paul Hill is either not informed or i3e needs to do more in marketing itself. The comments I see on these board suggest that latter is the issue – i3e needs to be more visible
2) Updates are not frequent enough – if you strip out the RNS’s on dividends and the like, were basically down to a once a quarter operational update. This is less than you were issuing a year ago and there’s a lot more going on now. As an example, the Simonette Well flowing at over 500 bopd and we’ve hardly heard anything about it. Gear Energy issues a monthly report and many investors think this is a great idea – keeps the discussion going and i3e in peoples minds and if there’s any repetition in the quarterly update – great – the message is reinforced.

3) I’ve heard a lot of concern from all the sources above that i3e may “waste” more money on Serenity. More messaging required on the plans for Serenity and reassurance on the prudent use of cash. Its personally a not a gripe I share because Imo you have already said that only $600k will be spent on furthering the FDP this year after which I assume the next steps will be determined. But I appear to be a lone voice any many think i3e are emotionally attached to the asset.

4) Re-Listing – many think that moving the primary listing to Canada may help. Personally, I’m not sure and in any case you have already addressed this, however what about a listing on the small cap index. The AIM is viewed as a bit of a lottery with poor governance and rules and 90% of the Companies do not make money. Would another listing not improve i3e’s gravitas and make it more assessable to investment funds.

5) Share Consolidation – personally not something I like because strong companies normally split and weak companies consolidate so for me the message is wrong but equally “blue chip companies” with a couple of hundred million pound market cap don’t have billions of shares. I know that you are not technically a blue chip but on a pod cast not so long ago you were talking of i3e as having “blue chip qualities”

6) Getting Canadian Institutional Ownership

7) More discussion on the potential of the Simonette and Clearwater – these have been heralded potential Company makers but have not heard enough about the plans to move them forward.

Pete - perhaps you need to go back to bed and get up again - see whether you feel any better.

Joe,

"WRT missing though, probably confidence.
How about a CFO? The last one left due to work issues taking priority over his health; ironically we don't need one to oversee the 2022FY and 2023 Capex.
How about laxity in checking RNSs? Last two had to be reissued.
How about keeping Companies House updated wrt Directors?
What is missing for the employees not to take up the vested Options?
Why are there still 9M 0.01p Warrants to take up before they expire in May?
What is their plan with Debt? Loan notes due in May but projected as "Net Debt (8) USD 8.8 million - 3.0 million" at end of 2023? Note 'NET'."

So with respect - confidence is probably a large part of the value disconnect but probably not for most if not all the reasons you mentioned. If you are concerned about any of the above - have you contacted the company or is it more fruitful in your opinion to have a good old moan about them on a public forum.

how am I sounding desperate Pete - "I would hope to see......" - that sounds like "Blind Faith Investing"

What's wrong with asking a couple of questions?

.....how patient are you suggesting PI's SHOULD be !

So I take it from that response that there are no improvements to be made in your opinion and that time will fix the issue although I do recall that you previously suggested a main market listing .

Pete - we've traded at a significant discount to peers for well over a year and we've actually slipped slightly relative to peers over the last 3-6 months - so no improvement - how patient are you suggesting PI's to be ?

I think your right Tiptop - except its tracking on lower FCF / CF multiples than peers and lower quality small cap oilers. So I3e were to do nothing else but trade in line with comparable Companies - the SP should be higher. So what is the missing ingredient - what are they missing ?