Member Info for tonynorstrom1

I came across this on twitter - seems like a reasonable metric. On this basis i3e would be valued at a fraction under 32p

https://twitter.com/DerAchsenZeit/status/1651314342850351104?s=20

"The greatest technical risk for either prospect is that the halite / salt top seal has been ruptured when the prospects were tectonically elevated at an earlier point."

I'm not and expert on this, in fact my knowledge is almost non-existent, but does the Seismic give some assurance that this is not the case - my understanding is that Gas shows up more distinctly than water or oil on the seismograph?

The other stock he has posted about on the LSE is Plant Health Care plc - so obviously the perfect credentials / experience to comment on an Oil Stock !

GP - is there a Video or a powerpoint they are going to put out on this ?

https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-april-2023
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php#:~:text=Global%20oil%20inventories%2C%20which%20increased,at%20the%20beginning%20of%202024.

Timbo,

Here’s my thoughts on oil inventories:

1) It is confusing and there are different opinions out there. Refer to the two links below from the EIA and IEA. The EIA shows inventories growing throughout 2023 whereas the IEA shows inventories drawing sharply in H2 2023. However, both show inventory builds end of 2022 / start of 2023.
2) One thing that is consistent is that supply / demand data are within about +/- 1%. This means that only a small change in assumptions or actual date is required before you slip from surplus to deficit or vice versa i.e., the market is pretty balanced. So not too surprising that there are different opinions out there.
3) You need to compare apples with apples. Eric Nuttall is looking at US inventories which drive US prices whereas the other data you referenced was Global Inventories. Also, Eric is referring to Inventories compared to averages over the period 2016 to 2019. I think he has done this to strip out the effect of Covid.
4) I don’t agree that Nuttall is discredited – Oil prices are notoriously difficult to predict – who here based on what we saw last year thought we would be at $75 now. I’m still of the opinion he has got the general themes correct and that we should still see a tightening in the Oil Market but who knows when and how severe the coming recession will be and what the effect on prices will be.

However, I think i3e is well positioned to ride out a recession and at current oil prices, the dividend is well covered. There are some positives on the horizons too such as the completion of additional pipeline capacity in the coming months which should narrow the discounts on Canadian product as well as the start of up of some of these Canadian LNG Projects in 2025 which should firm up Natural Gas Prices. So, I’m sitting tight – collecting my 10% dividend and looking forward to see how i3e grow the business. I suspect that the CFO will collect his options sooner rather than latter for adding 5000 boepd through acquisition and who know’s Majid may even pull a rabbit out the hat with Serenity – but don’t hold your breath !

My comments on the posts:

1) He/she/BOT has provided no source so are the figures even correct?

2) There is little to no context behind the numbers. The Dunvegan well for example which he is reporting as 5 boepd is listed on the BOEReport.com website as an exploration well so this may well be the explanation for that. The other wells - has clean-up completed and do the numbers represent the wells on full production even if they have been pulled off PetroNinja ?

so the information as presented is of little value imo !

Miniforvalter - If I was the CEO for i3e and you've been hired to do PR for i3e - this morning would be your first and last on the payroll !

Goldstinger - I posted how you can access the link - i'm pretty sure that WHI have not set this up so i'm the only person that can access it - and for those that cannot - I have pasted the report.

Miniforvalter - where are you getting your information from ?

Jim - you silly little man !

That's not what they said Jim - they were talking about the macro Environment in general.

I know rumours and promoting you blog is your game and not fundamental research - but a pertinent quote in the report is:

"...We believe that Pantheon is moving into a prime position for a farmout. We are
confident that Pantheon Resources will farmout to industry: The scale, quality
and location of its assets relative to infrastructure are simply too attractive for an
industry that will soon be short of growth prospects for the first time in more than
two decades...."

Macro Consideration #3, Thinning Out of US Shale Oil Growth: The oil & gas
industry is broadly in agreement that the high-growth period for shale oil in the
Lower-48 states is over. On 9 March 2023, Scott Sheffield, the CEO of the Pioneer
Natural Resources, a leading producer in the Permian Basin, the growth-engine
of US oil production stated: “The industry does not have the (undrilled well)
inventory, most companies are drilling Tier 2 and Tier 3 inventory now. So we just
don’t have that potential to grow US production ever again. I think we may get
back to 13mmb/d probably in about two-and-a-half to three years at a very slow
pace.” Historically, interest in Alaskan oil & gas developments increases when
production growth stalls in the Lower-48. So as the equity market closes up, we
believe that Pantheon is moving into a prime position for a farmout. We are
confident that Pantheon Resources will farmout to industry: The scale, quality
and location of its assets relative to infrastructure are simply too attractive for an
industry that will soon be short of growth prospects for the first time in more than
two decades (shale gas created incredible growth from the late 1990s and shale
oil took off in a big way after the 2008 financial crisis). Critically, the assets of
Pantheon Resources are some of the best assets globally on the farmout market,
we believe, in terms of their scale and near-term potential for appraisal and
eventual rapid commercialisation, subject to successful appraisal results. In
addition to the US companies, we see European, Australian and Asian oil & gas
companies with thin growth pipelines and increasingly aware that an oil crunch is
on the way due to a lack of supply.

The link is working for me.

Fair Value Reassessment:

We have reassessed the fair value of Pantheon Resources to reflect the evolving
macro backdrop for the company. The main change is that the equity market is
all but closed for capital raises across all sectors and geographies, creating some
of the most challenging conditions in living memory for non-producing oil & gas
companies. As a result, we are taking a more conservative approach to the
valuation of Pantheon Resources by including 10%, rather than 20% of the
success case values of Pantheon’s core assets in our fair value estimate. We
remain encouraged broadly by company specific developments, inclusive of the
Alkaid #2 results. With the equity markets essentially closed for new placings
across all sectors and all geographies there is more onus on a successful
farmout, in our opinion. Notwithstanding our bullish expectations for crude oil
prices, we are also lowering our long-term Brent oil price assumption to $85/b
from $95/b to keep our valuation aligned with oil market dynamics. As a result,
we are reducing our fair value estimate for Pantheon Resources to 92p (from
199p; Table 1).

Macro Consideration #1, Oil Market: Despite bullish fundamentals, the price of
oil remains weaker than we had anticipated. Although we have a constructive
outlook for oil prices and see OPEC+ taking decisive pre-emptive action to support
oil prices, we have aligned our assumed Brent oil price with market dynamics,
bringing it down by $10/b to $85/b. We anticipate making an upward revision to
that estimate if, as we expect, crude oil prices strengthen materially in the
summer of 2023.

Macro Consideration #2, Capital Markets: The Wall Street Journal Reported that
2022 was “The Worst Year in Two Decades” for Initial Public Offerings. Forbes
reported that Global IPO activity sank further in Q1 2023. Locally, on London’s
AIM market equity offerings have all but dried up, creating the worst conditions
in living memory for equity capital raises. With extreme macro uncertainty
relating to interest rates, forex, money supply and the global economic growth
outlook, the equity market is providing scant money to fund growth projects
across all sectors globally. This, fundamentally, is the core reason for which we
are reassessing our fair value estimate for Pantheon Resources.

Fair Value Reassessment:

We have reassessed the fair value of Pantheon Resources to reflect the evolving
macro backdrop for the company. The main change is that the equity market is
all but closed for capital raises across all sectors and geographies, creating some
of the most challenging conditions in living memory for non-producing oil & gas
companies. As a result, we are taking a more conservative approach to the
valuation of Pantheon Resources by including 10%, rather than 20% of the
success case values of Pantheon’s core assets in our fair value estimate. We
remain encouraged broadly by company specific developments, inclusive of the
Alkaid #2 results. With the equity markets essentially closed for new placings
across all sectors and all geographies there is more onus on a successful
farmout, in our opinion. Notwithstanding our bullish expectations for crude oil
prices, we are also lowering our long-term Brent oil price assumption to $85/b
from $95/b to keep our valuation aligned with oil market dynamics. As a result,
we are reducing our fair value estimate for Pantheon Resources to 92p (from
199p; Table 1).

Macro Consideration #1, Oil Market: Despite bullish fundamentals, the price of
oil remains weaker than we had anticipated. Although we have a constructive
outlook for oil prices and see OPEC+ taking decisive pre-emptive action to support
oil prices, we have aligned our assumed Brent oil price with market dynamics,
bringing it down by $10/b to $85/b. We anticipate making an upward revision to
that estimate if, as we expect, crude oil prices strengthen materially in the
summer of 2023.

Macro Consideration #2, Capital Markets: The Wall Street Journal Reported that
2022 was “The Worst Year in Two Decades” for Initial Public Offerings. Forbes
reported that Global IPO activity sank further in Q1 2023. Locally, on London’s
AIM market equity offerings have all but dried up, creating the worst conditions
in living memory for equity capital raises. With extreme macro uncertainty
relating to interest rates, forex, money supply and the global economic growth
outlook, the equity market is providing scant money to fund growth projects
across all sectors globally. This, fundamentally, is the core reason for which we
are reassessing our fair value estimate for Pantheon Resources.

He comes across very well - now lets see the delivery. I was hoping to hear something on Serenity as well - I'm assuming he just ran out of time.

A new report out from WHI on Pantheon - although they have slashed their price target (due to macro reasons) - its quite a positive report.

The reason for mentioning it was this snippet:

"Macro Consideration #3, Thinning Out of US Shale Oil Growth: The oil & gas industry is broadly in agreement that the high-growth period for shale oil in the Lower-48 states is over. On 9 March 2023, Scott Sheffield, the CEO of the Pioneer Natural Resources, a leading producer in the Permian Basin, the growth-engine of US oil production stated: “The industry does not have the (undrilled well) inventory, most companies are drilling Tier 2 and Tier 3 inventory now. So we just don’t have that potential to grow US production ever again. I think we may get back to 13mmb/d probably in about two-and-a-half to three years at a very slow pace.”

Reinforces what's already been said - a tail wind for oil prices and positive for companies like i3e who are able to grow production providing oil prices remain supportive.

I'm not sure whether you have a link to WHI on the PANR Website but if you go to the i3e website / investors /analyst coverage - there's link to the WHI portal, type in PANR and it will prompt you to enter your email address and then send you a link to the report.

Although they have cut their fair price value in half (primarily due to the macro environment ) - its quite a positive report.

what was the previous target ?

I sent i3e an email with a couple of questions on the reserves report. I wanted to share some feedback that will be of interest to holders.

So, the question was on well inventory which as most will know consists of booked well locations (included in reserves) and unbooked locations (not included in reserves). The specific question was on the unbooked locations and whether there is scope for these to increase significantly. The answer was yes for a couple of reasons:

1) I3e has not yet evaluated their entire acreage
2) There are multiple horizons including at existing well locations which have not been drilled yet. An example of this (imo) is the planned 2023 Simonette well which some might have expected to be drilled in the Montney formation but instead is being drilled into two other formations.

The relevance of this is of course the ability for i3e to significantly grow reserves without any further land purchases. This will not be unique to i3e, but I suspect due to i3e’s large land holding relative to its size and the fact the acreage is fairly new to i3e – this could imo present above average opportunities vis-à-vis i3e's peers. “We remain bullish!”