Member Info for tonynorstrom1

Your a fraud Jim - are you short ?

Stas20,

I know you were a holder of Europa (and i think still are) as well as I3e (much larger holding) - what are your thoughts on Gerry's post yesterday at 16:19pm on this board.

jolly - it was not meant to be a ****ty response and on review not ****ty - certainly no more ****ty than your post. what you have perhaps not considered is that the loan agreement almost certainly was not agreed yesterday - pretty sure that it would have been in place some time back - all that happened yesterday was the the loan notes were settled which they reported at the same time as announcing they have new loan facility in place.

"When you think I3e sold 25% to EOG for 7.5 million it sounds like a dreadful deal to then pay 3x as much for that back."

I'm not sure you even read past the 1st sentence of my post - they would not be paying 3x for buying the 25% stake back. The Egdon BOD have just recommended a deal for the Company valuing it close to 20m. Egdons principal asset is a 30% stake in Wressle (the same as Europa) - so in theory if someone was to buy EOG, then you get a free or atleast a very cheap option on Serenity and Inishkea.

I3e maintain (at least publically) that Serenity is a valuable asset regardless of whether Investors here think its is worthless.

Anyway - Majid has proven to be an expert allocator of Capital and I have faith that that will continue with the Projects they select to pursue.

Why wouldnt it happen the next day - accounts have already been prepared, the RNS written and only a blocker to remove ! I already said that it was plausible and the fact that they are using a small portion of the new loan to settle the notes confirms it as a theorectical possibility. I also agree that i3e's cash flow is such that it was only theoretical imo.

Reserves - not sure at all, these have already been reviewed by 3rd Party Reserves Auditors and almost certainly financial auditors would have nothing further ro add - in addition, the reserves report is a post period event.

I do agree however, i3e's reporting schedules are all over the place and not satifactory causing unecessary speculation - when I email the Company again - I will certainly add it to my list of what they can do better (in my humble opinion of course !)

"With the publication of the RNS, the Auditors will have confirmation that the funding for the next twelve months is now assured and they can ink their prepared letter removing the blocker to the publication of the 2022 Results."

Joe - I was about to applaud you for a very plausible and original idea as to the delay in reporting the accounts - but if this was the hold up, would they have not have been released this morning ?

Gerry,

"At 4p a share it is affordable and might be acceptable to EOG holders." I bet it would be - you’re having a Giraffe Gerry, surely - the shares are currently 1.3p!

(Full disclosure - I own a couple of million shares of EOG which I bought as a leveraged play on Serenity)

It’s not as daft an idea as it sounds though:

Europa Energy is an onshore UK production asset (Wressle) with Serenity and an offshore Ireland exploration asset (and a few miscellaneous UK onshore appraisal/exploration assets thrown in)

Thinking outside of the box - buy EOG for maybe 2.5p in shares and cash (total cost about 20m) - only if Serenity looks like a go ahead - then:

1) sell off the Wressle production asset along with the UK appraisal and exploration assets - this would probably recoup a big chunk of the purchase price given the recent offer to buy Egdon (Wressle seems to be quite a sought-after asset - 2nd biggest onshore well UK)

2) i3e would then have 100% of Serenity to develop or sell onto Repsol

3) Iniskea for those that don’t know is an Irish Offshore Gas Exploration Asset. Its potentially a very large Gas Field (260m boe plus recoverable) right next door to the producing Corrib Field owned by Vermillion. Corrib - comes with infrastructure so very simple to connect to the Irish Gas Network. Corrib is in steep decline and Ireland has just signed Contracts for 2 Gas Fired Power plants. Inishkea has enough gas theoretically to cover 70% Irelands Gas needs for the next 17 years - so potentially a very big prize.

But here’s the rub – its an exploration asset and everyone familiar with the appraisal drill at Serenity knows what that means. In addition, the exploration well comes with a hefty price tag of about $40m. On top of that – the Irish Government are even less friendly than the UK Government towards developing new fields. However, there have been some recent signs that the Irish Government have softened their stance and it would be an Asset that Vermillion would be interested in particularly as they have recently increased their stake in Corrib.

All sounds simple on paper – do you think Majid would go for it ?

MORNING COMMENT

i3 Energy

Business Update and Updated Valuation

i3 Energy announced that it has settled the entirety of its £22M Senior Secured Loan Notes outstanding, which were due 31 May 2023. The company also announced that it has established a new CAD100M loan facility with Trafigura. We expect that i3 Energy will rerate in 2H 2023, which we premise on our expectation of rising oil prices starting in July combined with what we believe to be a share price that has lagged the fundamental value creation (measured by cashflow) generated by i3 Energy’s drilling/operational success. From that perspective, with today’s announcement, a key condition has been satisfied through the provision of a growth-oriented, conservative and long-term loan facility for the

confident rerating of the company in 2H 2023 in accordance with our thesis. We reiterate our 29.5p fair value estimate (Table 1).

• Trafigura facility: The company stated that the loan provision involves an associated commercial contract related to i3 Energy’s oil production. The facility has a three-year term, with a coupon of 9.5% payable monthly on the drawn portion of the loan. The facility amortizes monthly on a straight-line basis. The facility is comprised of an initial CAD75M advance, with a supplemental CAD25M accordion structure. The facility will be secured against the company’s Canadian assets and provides flexibility in terms of use of funds. The Company’s non-Canadian assets remain un-encumbered by the new facility.

• Use of funds: The company indicated that it will utilise a portion of the initial CAD75M advance to redeem the outstanding loan notes. The balance of the facility will be available for general working capital purposes, the acceleration of organic growth via drilling and acquisition opportunities.

• WHI View: The redeeming of the loan notes due with a long-term facility that amortises on a straight-line basis provides the company with a straightforward and conservative facility structure. We expect that the incremental unallocated funds made available by the facility will accelerate growth, whether by drilling more wells or by way of acquisition. We expect i3 Energy to rerate in 2H 2023, which we premise on our expectation of rising crude oil prices combined with a lag in the recognition of the value created by i3 Energy’s operational success. We believe, today’s announcement provides the financial structure to achieve that rerating.

• i3 announced the successful settlement of the Company's outstanding £22m senior loan notes and the establishment of a C$100m loan facility with Trafigura, which provides greater financial flexibility and capacity.

• The facility has a three-year term, with interest payable monthly at 9.521% per annum, calculated on the outstanding portion of the loan, which is amortised monthly on a straight-line basis.

• Following redemption of the notes, the balance of the facility will be available for general corporate purposes, acceleration of organic growth and to fund accretive acquisition opportunities.

This is further evidence of the increasing trend for sub-$200m financing facilities to find sophisticated lenders amongst the commodity traders rather than the traditional banking relationships, evidenced by recent debt facilities provided by Trafigura to Afentra, Valeura and Gran Tierra. While the share price has tracked the downward trajectory of Canadian natural gas prices since the Summer, the Company’s operational success from last year’s investment programme has been demonstrated in tangible reserves and production growth. I3’s low-decline assets continue to outperform expectations and the capital efficiency programme this year should support production growth peaking at 26kboe/d in 2H23, ahead of historically stronger winter pricing. Longer term, i3 remains committed to grow the return of capital to shareholders (currently an ~11% cash yield) in line with the underlying profitability of the business.

The dividend in my opinion was never in doubt for the short to medium term (next 12 months) even had Oil prices gone down a little from where they are now - they may have had to look at scaling back the planned capex particularly with the loan notes still to settle - however todays news squashes all that - happy days - GGG must be delighted !!

"The Facility is secured by a first lien against substantially all the assets and shares of i3 ENERGY CANADA Ltd., permitting MAXIMUM FINANCING FLEXIBILITY for the rest of the Company's INTERNATIONAL portfolio."

This is also interesting as to what it means - my assumption is that I3e are free to persue seperate financing facilities for Serenity if required.

Well thats interesting - they have already drawn CAD 75m so the interest kicks off from now - obviously means they have immediate plans - could it be:

1) an acquisition - they could do with tax pools

2) Expanded drill program

3) Process Facilities / Pipelines in Clearwater or Simonette

There you go Joe - no default !

Https://boereport.com/2023/05/25/boe-intel-q1-earnings-season-report-card-part-1/

https://boereport.com/2023/05/30/boe-intel-q1-earnings-season-report-card-part-2/

A couple of interesting scorecards - they will enable you to see where i3e stands against 40 or so of its Canadian peers against a range of metrics.

I do recall you saying that jim - but is that really insightful given where the price of Oil & AECO Gas is on top of the banking crisis, threat of recession along with a possible US default. I also have a list of things that you have said that are demonstrably false !

......and remember a broken clock is right twice a day - also if your Grandmother had a wheel - it doesn't make her a bicycle and I bet she could write a better Sunday blog than you !

Https://brevarthanresearch.substack.com/p/pantheon-resources-panrl-panr-ln

Certainly an interesting read from Brevarthan - a lot to take in and digest. If I was a holder (I was in the past) - I would certainly be trying to understand and verify of discount his analysis.

Not so much from Jim - the usual dross - i just dont think he has any real understanding of whats going on here.

Https://4043042.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/4043042/Content%20Offers/2022.Q4%20Commentary/2022.Q4%20GR%20Market%20Commentary.pdf

A great read and why oil and gas prices may be heading significantly higher in the near future.

Refer to slide 26 - Corrib by far the biggest slice of their European Gas Network. Drilling Iniskea a no brainer ?

https://www.vermilionenergy.com//wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Vermilion-Energy-Corporate-Presentation-May-2023.pdf

Tobin - thanks.

The tankage wont be cheap but reducing the transit time to 50 days would increase the daily capacity to about 27,000 bopd and would pay for itself very quickly - seems like a no brainer to me. Not sure why they are waiting until 2024 to make the decision - there must be a reason.

Any idea what % of full Capacity the barges travel at during the low rives and typicall how many weeks / months this affects?

Barryroe is an Oil & Gas play so perhaps not that different. Good to here though that the objections were not to do with Energy Policy.

Vermillion is the most logical partner and so presumably would have no trouble meeting the finance requirements. The project appears to be a no brainer from an Energy Security and Environmental perspective. I guess the main question is whether they are prepared to risk $40m on an exploration well !

The Dividend is sustainable but it will be interesting to see how they handle the loan notes which are payable at the end of this month. If they can roll them over then they have plenty of cash - if they need to be settled then I think they would need to look at their Capex Budget in Q3. But either way, unless Oil & Gas Prices go meaningfully lower, I think the dividend is pretty safe.