Member Info for tonynorstrom1

Europa answered my email regarding recovery factors at Serenity as mentioned in there recent presentation. As some may recall from the CPR - recovery factors of around 50% are associated with multi-well developments including water injects. So this was their response to my question on recovery factors and the recent deal between Repsol & Sinopec:

"Our hope is that the Serenity will be unitised with Tain and developed as a single field with the multiple wells. The deal whereby Repsol has acquired Sinopec’s interest in RSRUK has undoubtedly helped this situation as RSRUK was burdened with an arbitration case between the two shareholders. Now Repsol have bought out Sinopec this has been resolved and with only one shareholder we are now fully engaged with RSRUK. Given this status I am not at liberty to provide further details until we have an agreement in place. "

Any thoughts on whether the chances of Inishkea proceeding are better than , less than or the same as Barryroe ? EOG has three distinct catalysts to rerate meaning fully higher:

1) Wressle Development (just a matter of time)

2) Serenity (looking promising)

3) Inishkea (no idea - Barryroe decision baffling given the size of the prospect.)

That is correct Mr Fibbles but when you burn Nat Gas the main products are water and CO2. According to the science presented in the video below, CO2 is good.

Also the government is selling the issue on climate change - who is correct?

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HnVUlVufSGQ

Interesting

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9P5QE00-fjw

Talks about Serenity from 8.30m. Still talking about in place volumes of 10 to 20 mmbbl and recovery factors of up to 50%. The CEO has been answering emails so I fired off a qustion on this. Other point of note is that Repsol have recently bought out Sinopec in the their joint venture resulting in increased activity / discussions on how to monetize Tain / Serenity.

A couple of questions on PTAL / Shipping routes if anyone can be kind enough to share:

1) One of the inititives to increase takeaway capacity on the Brazil route is to a reduce transit time to 50 days (currently 60-65 days). They say they are going to do this by adding storage capacity at the Brazil Port which they say they are studying and wil make a decision in 2024. I'm trying to understand what the constraint is here - are they currently loading into road tankers with low unloading rates and fixed tankage increases the unloading rate ? What is the problem at the port ?

2) My understanding is that the barging operation happens year round but at certain time in the dry season - barges have to travel with reduced loads in order to navigate lower river levels. Can anyone provide any clarity on how many months a year this typically occurs and what magnitude of reduction in load is required ?

3) As per presentation they have 1,500,000 bbl of barge capacity. As per Company the average barge is 20,000 bbl - this equates to roughly 75 barges. In one of my emails to PTAL, IR mentioned Barge Maintenance as a factor in take away capacity so if I assume that at any given time 10% of the barges are under maintenance then this equates to 68 barges at 63 days transit time equals 32 trips per month or about 21,600 bopd export capacity. So even if they brought a new well on tomorrow and under the above assumptions - maximum sales is about 21,600 assuming route 2 (pipeline) is not available.

4) Routs 4 to 7 as per presentation and as per Company comments are being studied and would not be available until sometime in 2024 .

comments appreciated.

Research-tree.com

the missing bit thats been blanked out in the web address

https://*********************/companies/uk/oil-gas-e-ps/union-jack-oil-plc/research/shore-capital/union-jack-oil-ujo-house-stock-at-26p-recommended-cash-offer-for-partner-egdon-resources/53_0ed8dc3c-a94d-3108-bf19-212bd4fb73bf/a5052730-3626-4942-9e18-80fbc7bde9d6

interesting research note from shore capital

".......observing the trend seen in uk plc more generally, wonder if the recommended offer is now a precursor for wider overseas m&a interest in players onshore uk."

heyco also have extensive interests in european gas assets - a lot of synergy in buying and managing europas wressel interest and a free or nearly free option on inishkea !!!

Not much to discuss here on i3e at the moment until they release some news. Everyones waiting for the full year results but many Canadian Companies have already issued Q1 updates already. Should be no reason really why i3e could not have issued one - the're not subject to audit !!

Since not much new to discuss - no one should mind me turning to PTAL briefly:

GGG:

1) Have you listened to the recent results podcast with the CEO and also looked at the latest presentation - lots of good stuff.

2) PTAL's Investor relations is pretty good - they seem to respond same day to any questions. I think I have worn them out with my barrage of questions - still awaiting a response to the last email.

3) Have you found any realtime information on water levels for the Amazon - export quantities I believe are constrained in the dry season and I think if you had access to real time water levels - you could probably have a pretty good stab at making a call on whether PTAL will meet or exceed guidance ahead of market announcements in the next 6 - 9 months.

If there was a material impact on operations - they would have to issue an RNS. The assumption has to be no or negligible impact.

Any thoughts on whether Europa might be a takeover target and would you sell your shares if the offer was 100% premium to the current SP?

How have shareholders been let down - almost 100% premiumto the current SP ??

Succinct it is not!! It would have been interesting had it been posted several weeks ago but it’s rehashing stuff that’s already been posted and pretty much de-bunked, plus its speculative and contrary to information that some posters have already verified with the Company.

He along with at least one other is still making something out of the “sudden” departure of the CEO. It almost certainly wasn’t sudden to i3e and what Company is going to issue health updates on employees unless it’s going to affect their employment status – so no red flag there imo. I can also say that after exchanging many emails with Graham (and I think “The Abbot” shares the same view after also having exchanged numerous emails) that we are in no doubt that the decision to leave was based purely on health reasons.

Not sure I mentioned it on this BB but just to dot the I’s and cross the t’s – I sent the following question to i3e:

Question:

“Are you able to confirm that the delayed release of results with respect to I3E’s guidance is purely down to a longer than expected auditing process.”

Answer:

“That is correct”

Also, to clarify something, the poster on the other BB who has stirred this whole issue up has spread misinformation stating amongst other things that i3e “promised” and even used the words “expressly promised” to issue the results by end of March which is simply nor true. Companies including i3e do not make such promises let alone express promises – they issue guidance. Sure it is sloppy / disappointing for i3e to miss guidance but red flag – I don’t think so – there is no factual information to support this.

Also worth mentioning that the deadline for filing is not until the end of June – our Serenity partner (Europa Energy) for example has note filed results yet either and I’m not sure they gave any guidance on planned release date.

Fact check the information and make your own mind up – don’t be swayed by baseless rumour – its your money!

Absolutely zero chance of being able to go it alone - whose going to lend Europa $40m to drill an exploration well with a 30% COS !?

".....do some of you think every month the cash in hand should go up lol?" - I think the answer to that is yes Lol !! Their generating significant CF each month and I would expect that to cover share repurchases and day to day running costs including audit fees etc.

I'm not sure anyone was suggesting anything untoward about the cash drawing down if indeed it has - my interest was have they spent any money on one of their potential Capex Programs and which one.

It would be a great question to ask the Company where they spent the cash - let this BB know when you get and answer please !

They are very decent results but entirely expected. The catalysts are going to be the new projects not the cash flow from wressle which is really the meat and potatoes of the Company.

Https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/13/natural-gas-prices-are-bottoming-major-investor-suggests.html?__source=androidappshare

Interesting interview on CNBC - suggests Natural Gas Prices may have bottomed. Looking at AECO chart for May - it seems to look that way. Would be good news for i3e with 50% of their production gas on a boe basis.

Well I did mention Surge recently so it would be remiss of me not to share an alternate viewpoint I came across on twitter yesterday

https://t.co/VHpoNdfOEG

WTIBull is obviously not on the same page as Shubham Garg.

https://player.fm/series/value-hive-podcast/wti-realist-taking-a-realistic-view-on-the-bull-energy-thesis

Here's a link to an interview with this guy - seems to know his stuff and includes his take on how to value Oil Companies and the various differentiators.

GGG,

I'll share a couple of thoughts on PTAL shortly. I sent management a quick email on egress capacity which they have already responded to but I had a follow on question.