Member Info for tonynorstrom1

Interesting graph.

Bernstein: even if EV's = 25% of total global car sales by 2025 and 50% in 2030, we will still consume the same amount of oil as we do today in 15 years (2038). Eric Nuttall - Where exactly is the required production going to come from???

(In my opinion - companies like i3 Energy ! Has the Inventory - no need for external financing, can bring on new wells in a matter of months and the ability to pivot to oil or gas as the market dictates)

https://twitter.com/eri****tall/status/1651215640319995904/photo/1

(you may have to retype eric nuttal - no spaces)

In my opinion - I3e will not want to maintain the dividend if it means drawing down cash over an extended period of time - hence a cut in the Capex Program.

Currently I dont think this will happen as I see Oil and Gas prices being higher over the course of the year but who knows where they will head once we are in the teeth of a recession. Another positive was API reporting another draw in Crude Inventories yesterday and on top of that the OPEC production cuts come into effect from the beginning of this month - so a little surprising to see the sharp fall in WTI that we saw yesterday.

WTI has taken a bit of a tumble but Oil Inventories have fallen yet again - over reaction to recession fears - maybe.

Revenue and Dividends are not based on todays Oil Price. WTI year todate is around $78 per bbl and $79 average in April.

So I see the question of the dividend sustainability is being brought up again - so lets run some numbers. If I plug in actuals todate and then run WTI at $70 and Gas at CAD 3.00 through the remainder of the year. Also assume that i3e suspends its capex program from next month - then the spread sheet tells me that i3e is bulding cash and that the dividend cover is about 1.5 based on monthly cash flow.

So in my opinion the dividend is safe but it would depend on how conservatively i3e decide to run the balance sheet - I dont see a dividend cut at current prices.

Unlikely2 - Almost exactly at 2:23 - he does state which one he is invested in. I think he is very aware of the sometimes toxic nature of some of the interactions betweens people on this BB and those on the 88e board and doesnt want to get into that.

You are right - he clearly thinks with the right oil plrice and the right project / projects, Alaska has the potential to disrupt the current supply / demand balance.

TAPS pipeline only runs at about 25% Capacity so plenty of runway there - interesting slide / slides on the TAPS pipeline about the 2:11 mark - quite a feat of Engineering / Construction.

https://4043042.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/4043042/Content%20Offers/2022.Q3%20Commentary/2022.Q3%20GR%20Market%20Commentary.pdf

explained further here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iHzWGnbI9nw

Very good podcast on peak shale - well worth a watch. Also touches on the rationale behind share buy backs around the 42 minute mark. One of the only tools in the toolbox that i3e has elected not to use.

George - fair comment - his interest in Alaska is fairly new I think. His specialist area is Canada / Canadian Oil stocks so if your are interested in Canadian stocks , I would be interested in your thoughts then after having watched one of his pod casts - he's pretty much reviewed every Oil Stock in Canada.

Do you have a link to any of Art Bermans stuff.

regards

Worldwidepleb,

Just to clarify who this idiot is:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1635704491755307008

Rabito,

Your right - his research is better than yours - i've been in the Oil and Gas Industry 30 years including the last 8 or 9 years on upstream mega projects in the middle east. I'm not claiming to be any kind of expert but I know enough I think to figure out who actually knows what they are talking about. I dont think Shubham actually said that PANR need $100 to be profitable - I think his comments were much more nuanced and included something to the effect that PANR (and indeed 88E) need to do more work to demonstrate the commerciality of their Projects.

I have already asked him several questions on PANR and 88E - if you have questions for him - I suggest that you ask him yourself. - he is very generous with his time and knowledge - so I have no doubts at all that you would learn something.

As for Jim (Louis10) - I hope it didn't go unnoticed that he was fact checked by SunZoo (at 13:49) and found to be spreading misinformation again.

Rabito,

I'm probably going to provoke a reaction here as I think it seems that your posts are valued - however, anyone that blows their own trumpet like you and puts down other posters - for me that's a bit of a flag .

Investors looking at the podcasts and the research provided by Shubham I think will recognize that he's streets ahead of you in terms of quality of research and knowledge despite you having "22 year experience in the chemical industry".

He's fast becoming recognized as being an expert in all things Canada - one reason I think he is paying attention to Alaska is that I believe he thinks its one of the few places left to potentially alter the world supply demand balance and hence his long term cyclical bull thesis on oil and in particular Canadian Oil Stocks. I would be watching out for some of his updates on Alaska if I were you - you might learn something !

This is the last I will say on Shubham for a while - I don't want to be seen as someone pushing a paid blog like Jim - I'm merely highlighting some quality research that I think will be of value to PI's.

With respect Rabito - Chemicals is completely different from upstream Oil & Gas so I would suggest that his hand on experience in the field on upstream projects along with his petrochemical degree and 10 years of investment experience is probably more relevant to Oil than your 20 years making fertilizer.

Always makes me laugh when people say they have 20 years plus experience - perhap your experience is low value when it comes to upstream projects.

Rabito - still not sure why you are continuing to knock him. You have no idea whether he has exaggerated his CV or if he is overplaying his role as consultant. I would imagine that his short term assignments in the Oil Patch are connected with his degree in Petrolium Engineering. You’ve not left much to be corrected on - you’re doing a bit of an Oilman Jim and peddling speculation instead of facts.

I will leave others to make up their own mind as to his expertise / credentials - his seminars / presentations speak for themselves.

Jim - the lies are coming from you as usual. His portfolio is published on his website and in addition I have spoken with the guy about various subjects including Pantheon and 88e - so he certainly is invested. I hope those that are unsure about who you really are can now appreciate that you deal in misinformation and deceit.

Jim - Just like most of your commentary - rubbish - He has a significant holding in 88E

Rabito79 - you’re well wide of the mark - he’s head and shoulders above just about everyone on this board:

1) writes for various industry publications
2) Runs his own investment fund
3) Consults for several oil and gas juniors
4) and he does provide research / detailed analysis of many companies - you’ve missed the whole point of this particular presentation
5) Lead investor in several equity placements in Junior oil companies
6) He has done a deep dive into many Canadian Oilers - I would suggest taking a look at his presentation on Surge Energy as an example.

Not sure why you seem keen in knocking him down - his social media following speaks for itself as do his presentations.

Oilman Jim (Louis10) is an idiot. Check out the last segment in this Video for informed comment from someone that actually knows what the're talking about. Pantheons and 88E's assests / wells are briefly covered in the last segment.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EftjFGw9BGA

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EftjFGw9BGA

Some very interesting stuff here and useful for those investing in these assets. Touches on Pantheon & 88E in the future outlook segment.

What many will have noticed is that Oilman Jim (Louis 10) is unable to back up most of his comments. He specializes in misinformation, deceit and rumour.

He’s a gimp and best ignored. Expert in AIM oil stocks in his head only ! His only game is promoting his paid blog which quite frankly is a load of rubbish.

I agree largely with the post except:

"But they are not used in the industry as the basis for transactions precisely because they exclude a huge chunk of fair value..."

This is clearly not 100% correct which is the reason why the twitter poster has come up with the metric - the market in general is simply not ascribing much value to 2P reserves currently - a bit of "the bird in hand is worth 2 in the bush" mantra.

Not only that - as WHI have pointed out, the market is looking through reserves and placing a lot of stock on FCF generation. 2P may/should become more important in the future if and when the market recognizes that peak demand could be a decade or more away away with significant damand into 2050 and beyond.

All in my opinion - DYOR

Yes Jim - I certainly think you need a good ole clip around the ear !

Anyway - back to a Market Commentator / Analyst that does actually know what they are talking about:

https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1kvJpmEZmoZxE?s=20

Should be interesting - a session presented by Shubham Garg on "Alaska Oil Production, Overview, History and Future Outlook"

Timbo,

This should clear things up for you:

https://1drv.ms/b/s!AoSqKfvcR4IMgYNyQj-jSBe8TrEANg?e=fL1la1