RE: 100% conformance to positive test cases required15 Apr 2020 00:04
Seadoc, thanks for the scientific info.
Note, the Government has declared that present antibody tests do not have high sensitivity and so do not give 100% conformance to positive test cases.
I am sure the PHE assessment of the various tests available at the time looked into high sensitivity and test specificity. That is why the UK Govt has gone with PCR and the NCYT test.
The antibody test is presently not acceptable as a POC (point of contact) test.
Professor Peto argues that with centrally organised facilities with the capacity to test the entire UK population weekly (in 6 days at 10 million tests per day) can be made available much more quickly and cheaply than a vaccine, probably within weeks. This heroic but straightforward national effort would involve a crash programme to enlist all existing PCR (polymerase chain reaction) facilities, acquire or manufacture the PCR reagents, and agree protocols including a laptop program for barcode reading in smaller laboratories.
The numbers are not there but the approach taken by the UK may fit the Peto model.
No vaccine required! Now thats a radical thought !
But lots of PCR testing ....
Professor Peto letter to BMJ at
https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/368/bmj.m1163.full.pdf.
Enjoy!
test,test,test.