Member Info for tomvisual

Shocking about the PHE in house test.
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-04-21/not-surprising-phe-s-covid-19-antigen-test-may-be-less-reliable-than-commercial-test-sources-tell-robert-peston/
I am unclear whether the 75% sensitivity is almost all down to poor reagents or whether there is a more fundamental flaw in the test.
If it is a fundamental problem then have we all been deliberately mislead about the test and if so, then why? It would be a very serious failing on the part of PHE and the people at the top.

I was thinking long ago that the decision making needs to be more transparent and the membership of key committees needs to be broadened to include more academic public health people, opposition politicians and project managers who know how to manage to get things done.
Test, test, test

VanV, looking at the 1/4/20 email,
For the provision of PPE and achieving 25,000 and 100,000 tests per day:
Please can the public see the Gantt charts for achieving these objectives, so the following can be reviewed: the targeted end date; the dependencies; the critical path; and progress against the programme. This request is made necessary by the continued abject failure to deliver programmes to time. It simply will not do to pretend that the Gantt charts do not exist, since Gantt charts are the standard method of project planning.
Unfortunately, we were closer to the mark here than we could have contemplated....
Lets hope the reservations we had on the TF assay are unfounded. We at least need to try and find out!
Still, I do not understand why the TF assay is not on the WHO recommended list!!!
Now wonder if the WHO have tested the TF assay? Surely, they must have??? Otherwise the implications may be massive .....

Wilson, I can pnly imagine that TF spun a yarn about millions of tests.
Unfortunately so did the Chinese and we know what happened to their tests. Collecting dust no doubt in some warehouse.
Also recall Prof Ferguson from Imperial did not think we could test in big volumes. Hence the F path of herd immunity was intially advised. With 250k deaths estimated from the Imperial College model this was deemed unpalatable. UK Govt needed a big pharma to underwrite test delivery. TF got in the door around 17th March 2020. They had earlier that month taken over Qiagen for $11.1B!
See my other post of 1st April 2020 as I do not know which assay test they are providing the UK.
In March 2020 PHE evaluated various test systems to identify Covid 19.
The PHE assessment (16/3/20 report date) reviewed the Qiagen QIAstat-Dx test but not the Thermo Fisher TaqPath test.
FDA EUA was granted to Thermo Fisher for the TaqPath test on 12/3/20.
FDA EUA was granted to Qiagen for the QIAstat-Dx test on 30/3/20.
What test is the UK considering from Thermo Fisher?
What percentage conformance to positive test cases can the Government confirm for the Thermo Fisher test?
The Thermo Fisher test (TaqPath) was the first test to receive the FDA EUA approval (12/3/20). This application took 8 hours to approve. At time of the PHE assessment, why was this test not in the PHE evaluation?
The Qiagen (QIAstat-Dx) test had not received the FDA EUA approval at time of the PHE assessment. Why was this test considered in preference to the NCYT test for UK procurement?

This is very relevant today as it has now been disclosed that the PHE test has been found to be lacking!
We also know the TF test is not WHO approved.
I would like RP to ask if the Govt can show us the PHE assessment report on the covid 19 PCR tests?
A technical question, but as they say the devil is in the detail!

Follow the science.
NCYT are truly a great company with the innovative approach to deal with availability of reagents (dPCR).
Does any other Company check their assay daily against the covid SARS-CoV-2 sequences published on the GISAID EpiCoV database?
2 hour test time is about to reduced when dPCR comes into production.
Test,test,test
gla

Bramley, thanks for the spreadsheet estimates.
These figures are in line with some estimates I initially made. Which us ehy I am invested here.
We are indeed at the start of the journey of this Company.
However, the share price movements of the past few days have reiterated the comment "that we are in a marathon not a sprint". Hence, milestones along this journey have to be met. Your spreadsheet indicates the revenues that NCYT need. If it can meet these or better still (for the global good) exceed these figures then the Company will be transformed from circa £254M to a multi-billion Company.
Lets get to £5, £6 + first then look at the next sales target as the spreadsheet indicates.
Trust in the science with NCYT.
Test,test,test
gla
Stay safe.

6% variance with France today. Does this balance out with yesterday variance?

Solstace, perhaps 12M?
...double capacity and produce an additional 4M.
4 + 4 +4 = 12M????
am I reading this incorrectly?
Test, test, test
Follow the science

Roche, Primerdesign and Abbott are the 3 recommended PCR tests.
Swiss, UK, US companies.
Just need global effort to manufacture these tests at scale to get on top of this virus.
Test, test, test.
gla.

LXP81, I would argue that you are at least one order of magnitude and some out in you estimate!
As they say, DYOR!
Time will shortly reveal all.
Follow the science.
Test, test, test
gla

Arbitrage opportunities abound here.

Why is there still a 6% variance in share price between UK and France?

6% differential uk vs France
France about to go blue

5% differential uk vs France

Lockyer, genesig is the Primerdesign/ NCYT test.
Other test is Roche.
Excellent.
Only wish the WHO had been more verbal wrt which test everyone should use.
CDC and PHE inhouse tests both had problems.
With reagent availability does the new dPCR test come out top?
From the link posted earlier, https://finddx.shinyapps.io/COVID19DxData/
Look at the graph the Primerdesign test are the top of the chart here - head and shoulders above competitors!
Follow the science.
Test, test, test

Obelix, I wonder if the WHO order (irrespective of quantities) warrants a RNS in its own right!

Can anyone advise when then previous ce approval was granted 5 years ago, what the % rise was in the share price.
May not be relevant, but interesting to ask??

Article from Nature at
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/how-does-coronavirus-kill-clinicians-trace-ferocious-rampage-through-body-brain-toes

Glad to be invested here.
Test, test, test
gla

Adam87 good find on the Microsoft link
https://uk.linkedin.com/in/addenning
gla

AshTrey excellent post. 18 months storage.
This could be a "game changer" as it a brilliant product differentiator!
Countries can now purchase and stock the Primerdesign test in anticipation of subsequent outbreak waves.
Innovation from Primerdesign/NCYT.
Follow the science.
Test, test, test

Note: Could this innovative product differentiation lead to a T/O??? Time will tell.

Unbelievable ...
The in-house PHE test does not detect all positive test cases! PHE need to leave test design to the commercial experts.

I would seriously advise countries to implement the WHO test recommendation for covid 19 testing, the Roche or the NCYT PCR test.
The article again validates my investment decision. I am in the correct test technology (PCR and soon to be the only Company supplying dPCR) and one of the WHO recommended PCR test companies, NCYT.
Follow the science.
Test, test, test
gla

Seadoc, sensitivity and specificity....
In answer to the question about whether it is better to have a point of care test that is low on both specificity and sensitivity:
Low specificity would mean people without the disease would be classed as infected and low sensitivity would mean people with the disease being classed as uninfected.
I therefore conclude that it is bad to have either or both of low sensitivity and/or low specificity.

Test, test, test