Member Info for TommyFlowers

To be fair to Knowlesi suggesting that a summer raise will occur that is not dilutive is also purely speculative. It is also a fact that the vast majority of capital raises come at discounts and are dilutive. While other options are also a possibility I don't think it is in anyway a "negative perspective" to suggest the company will need to raise cash soon and there is a good probability that it will be dilutive to existing shareholders who do not participate. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.

It would be nice to have interest in the company .... but i sincerely hope no takeover is agreed in the foreseeable future as the long term prospects are good and any near-term offer would not properly capture that potential value for current shareholders. If Chondromimetic gains any serious traction our market cap could well be higher than Generex in the next 24 - 36 months. Look at Tissue Regenix (TRX) a good company but a that is a lot longer away from profitability and technology that has more cost, technical and ethical challenges than ours but I guess you could call sexier and it has market cap of 80 million.

I have no problem with Knowlesi's contributions to the BB and I think overall his analysis is helpful and I think it is a very useful balance to the dominant science is all that matters brigade. I don't agree with all of what he says, equally, I don't agree with all of the "science is all that matters brigade". The current share price (and the path of the share price over the past 5 years) shows us that something more than the science is needed for an early stage company like SCLP and this is something we don't have. For what its worth, in my view to the extent that anyone called the GC on this board it was Knowlesi ... In the long run this is not the crucial call to get right on the company but I think Knowlesi understands that to maximise the return to shareholders other factors need to intersect with the science. This is something I absolutely agree with.

I think Crumbs (05:16) has it spot on. Keep averaging down, expect a capital raise (probably 2) before any jackpot , be aware that there are real risks here and a doughnut is one possible outcome, only invest up to a level you can afford to lose.

I think one of the things holding buyers back from picking up Ixico shares at bot a lot more than net cash is the state of the Alzheimer’s clinical trials market. In the last 12 months you have had a series of high profile phase 3 trials pulled the latest one being Merck & Co last week. The mood is downbeat and many are taking a wait and see / more cautious approach. It seems the market is going in to one of its cyclical dips while the pharmas work out what candidate to try next. Lots of hope pinned on aducanumab and if some of the early positive signs are confirmed it should lead to a new charge in pharmas testing related products or testing some combination approach. I know IXICO is a lot more than just AD related testing but I think this is probably what is holding back some institutional investors.

Goodbody, very well spotted. You would hope a good portion of that 1.4 million has gone to COS to build up sufficient inventory for their launch !

SoupChicken, I think I would tend to agree with you if it were not for two things. 1) COS is currently at cash flow break even or at least should be in the coming months. 2) the imminent approval and launch of Chondromimetic. We know that GP on sales will be between GBP 600 and 700 per pack. In my view in months 12 to 24 after launch they should be able to do at least 5,000 packs (I actually think they can do a lot more but thinking worse case) given the cash flow break even has been reached most of that GBP 3,000,000 will fall to the bottom line. In addition the underlying business will have added an addition GBP 1,000,000 to revenue or 700k to GP. So you are looking at a business with net cash flow of @ GBP 4 million in 24 months time this is vs a market cap of GBP 13 million today. If I was to plug a more optimistic case for Chondromimetic you could be pushing GBP 8,000,000 to GBP 12,000,000 in FCF. The other way I think about it and I accept it may be flawed, is that whey they convert a surgeon I assume they will only use Chondromimetic and no longer use micro fracture. An average surgeon does @ 175 procedures per year and an average procedure uses 1.5 packs. So to get to 5,000 packs per year they only need to convert 20 surgeons. We also know that there are a handful who are ready to use the product from day one.

So in summary I think the real delta between your view and mine comes down to the outlook for Chondromimetic. I am happy to hear an alternative view on Chondromimetic. My view is based on my experience as to how few long term effective treatments there are for Cartilage damage.

Just found a new corporate video of COS on you tube.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S5R_-3UMwNM

Agreed. Also From memory the average weighted price of the options is about 5.8p and the conditions for release are shareprice above 10p and a period of being cash flow positive ( can’t remember the exact criteria something like 6 consecutive months).

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=mcVVgJIWGVU

Jamal starts speaking about 51 mins. Some interesting insight in to how much more of the pie they capture with contract manufacturing and secondly where we stand on the approval of Chondromimetic.

Yes. I did not attend but normally there is a video of the event, would be good to see that. COS is pretty good at posting videos etc, so would expect something in the next 24 hours.

Posted Yesterday in NZ - Not sure if is a new position or a replacement but they have talked about the growth opportunity in the tissues business.

Production Technician
Collagen Solutions (NZ) Ltd -Marton
Full time

PROCESS TECHNICIAN

Collagen Solutions (NZ) Ltd operate an animal tissue procurement and processing facility in Marton. From here we supply abattoirs with solutions for the collection and shipping of tissue products and carry out tissue processing on behalf of medical device companies across the globe.

Reporting to the General Manager, this role involves the manufacturing of solutions and processing of animal-derived biomaterials into products ready for use by medical device manufacturers.

We are looking for a reliable person, ideally with processing/ manufacturing skills, who demonstrates the key attributes of accuracy and attention to detail. A willingness to learn and flexibility to undertake a wide range of tasks will be required, as is the ability to work within strict Quality Systems guidelines.

A science background and/or laboratory experience is highly desirable.

The successful applicant will have the following attributes or skills:
?Good time management skills with the ability to prioritise and multi-task in a controlled environment;
?A commitment to excellence and quality with a great eye for detail and pride in getting it ‘right first time’;
?Demonstrated ability to maintain accurate paperwork and records;
?Reliable, flexible and adaptable, with a willingness to assist in a variety of roles, as required;
?Effective team member, able to assist others, and not afraid to ask for assistance when needed.

Best I can tell other than the house broker (N+1 Singer) no one is covering the stock and they do not give a specific price target. That said at the current share price they have forecast P/E of 22.16 x 2019, 16.73 x 2020 and 13.67x 2021 if that is any help.

Chelsea, I suspect you are just a kind hearted soul either that or you are suffering from a form of Stockholm syndrome. But yes it is failure, in the area of corporate communication the current BOD has failed (take the patent issues as the most recent example) they come nowhere near best in class with respect to corporate/shareholder communication. I think for the strength of the science and the IP we are right up their but in terms of "running" a professional corporate entity we are at or below average on AIM (not a high bar). The appointment of BDO is a positive, although in truth, I think it makes little difference it is a psychological reassurance to see a recognisable name signing off the accounts.

Looks like Hardman have put out some updated research, in truth it does not look very different to the numbers they put out almost a year ago. But I guess they felt the need to have something recent ahead of the corporate presentation they are hosting this coming week.

https://www.hardmanandco.com/research/corporate-research/exciting-growth/

Goodbody,

Great find and I see from their twitter feed that they are also looking for some one in the US for research and development. I take 2 positives from this. Firstly that they expect Chondromimetic approval in the near term and secondly they are not too worried about cashflow if they can bring on two relatively senior hires. The outlook really is very solid.

I think the sales price highlights how undervalued COS is at this point. At 215k for our @2.5% stake in Jellagen this implies a market cap of 8.6 million. To date Jellagen has no revenue to speak off and no proprietary products close to market. This is not meant to disparage Jellagen but it does serve to highlight that our valuation is very low, we have a 12.3 million market cap, revenues in excess of 5 million per annum. We are on the verge of cash flow breakeven we have a large development business that leads to long term sticky revenues and we have a pipeline of near term proprietary products. All that for just a 50pct more than the price of Jellagen.

COS sold its stake in Jellagen Ltd for approximately £215,000 in a private transaction. All helps with the cash flow while we wait for the Chondromimetic approval.

What a small world it is. If I peer back through the mists of time I think the last time we caught up for a drink was last century ... Mayfair or somewhere close by, if my memory serves me correctly. Probably time for another one...

or maybe I got that the wrong way around .... maybe it does/did pay to be Petty ;) !!!

Jimzi,

Those were the days .... you were always well regarded in Hanoi ... never pays to be petty.