Member Info for TommyFlowers

Mathsprof, I suspect you have it about right. The GC is a distraction in my view, we have a boat load of good science and connections already, focus should be exclusively on getting that commercially ready and monetizing it in one way shape or form. I know this will not be a popular view but many of you long term holders and this is the thesis that you probably bought in to, long before the GC project was proposed. The 10x, 20x or 100x returns that most of us see as possible here will only be bought about by derisking the IP portfolio.

We need to get the 2 trials in the pipeline underway as soon as possible. It really is that simple, that should be the sole priority.

Yes, very good.

Is this the first one they have converted from the development work ?

Tino.
I am pretty confident on the pricing, I may have even undercooked it by about 30% based on something Jamal said in one of the video presentations. Take up is just a stab in dark really but given the data that goes with this product and the pricing, in time, you would think why would you use anything else. That said I have been disappointed by take up rates of great products in the past, even though they get there in the end.

Still if they can get to 20,000 units a year (5% of their estimate of addressable market) this product generates a GP equivalent to todays market cap. Worth thinking about !

Does anyone have any figures on likely first year take up of ChondroMimetic ? I know they have indicated a cost around the US$ 1,500 mark .... I am guessing based on similar products a GPM of between 50% and 60% .... so that is @ US$ 800 to US$ 850 per procedure. What do you reckon 5,000 unit sales in the first 12 months (that is @ 1.5% of what they consider to be the addressable market) ? Too aggressive ? That would result in a good GBP 3+ million in gross profit contribution and would see us well clear of the break even level. Any views on this would be much appreciated.

Yes, they came in as part of the recent placement. Share price has responded well ..... I will keep keep nibbling away prior to a read out from the phase 3 trials. Assuming positive results will likely need to be one more raise prior to cash flow break even. All things being equal it should be at a much better price.

Ivy, Morning, yes I think the level of BB activity given the market cap also supports your views with respect to the level of PIs and trading patterns.

RR, I would not want it either an I don't think it is likely but I am not confident an offer at 25p would be rejected. Obviously a lot would depended on whether it was endorsed by the board, the views of Ms Durrant etc but from an economic perspective I think it would be in with a shouting chance. 25p would be above IPO price and all subsequent placements. As an interesting aside I was looking at the average price paid by the largest shareholder at 12.89% - Calculus Capital - Bloomberg estimates Calculus's average entry price at 18.41 p, Number 2 on the list is Hargreaves Lansdowne 8.96% in aggregate(different beneficial holders underlying) average price paid based on Bloomberg estimate at 22.56p.

I think a start to clinical trials can see as get to 15p or 17p a positive outcome and we go much much higher but that is not going to be 2019. I think right now we are suffering from two things 1) disappointment over the delay to the start of the SCIB1 trial 2) I think the shareholder structure is against us at this point the shareholder base is very diverse with very few large holders for some particularly the more institutional types as the shares value falls its effect on the portfolio falls and it becomes a target for tidying up or redeployment elsewhere. It only takes a few sellers and the shares are under pressure. The other theme I tend not to agree with that is often expressed is how many people are lining up to buy the company ..... an all an offer at 20p or 25p would likely be successful so where are they ?. After positive data from a trial a take out would be on multiples of that . Acquirers want a derisked investment and are willing to be pay more for it. Anyway a takeover offer now would be horrible as many people, myself included see the longer term potential for a 10, 30 or 50 bagger from here without too much stretch of the imagination. I suspect a 20p - 25p per share offer would be accepted by a majority of shareholders if it was tabled today.

RR, I think you are spot on ..... more great science is not going to do much for the shareprice in the near term ..... we need to prove the large amounts of great science that we have and ideally it needs to start happening now. As to how low can the stock price go .... you would not think it can be much lower but then you could have said that for a while now. I think one thing that is against us is the current shareholder structure. Outside of Calculus you have no shareholder in double digits. So there are lots of smaller shareholders and it only takes a few small sell order to knock the shareprice about a bit.

I think realistically we will not hear about a new trail start date until at least February so CG results aside there is likely to be dead air for a while. I don't think it would hurt the company to give a market update on the latest status between FDA and Inchor before year end. Onward and upward.

It is an interesting one ..... I have not looked at the company very much so don't have all the facts, so please correct me if I have some of this wrong .... If you put to one side the wages and fees which do seem excessive and you assume that the only value in MTFB is to clear the various debts ... then you end up with a @ GBP 4 million stake in POLX for current market cap of GBP 1.1 million plus some other bits and pieces..... as some one who is interested primarily in POLX this has interesting possibilities.

Well I was wrong on a number of fronts .... but right about the raise. There was no RNS flurry and Amphion scrapped together some cash to reduce their dilution. Really good to see key members of management and board top up in relatively meaningful ways. Looks like they have raised enough to see them to FDA submission ..... going to need the same again or a little bit more to get them to cashflow break even. There NOMAD has put out some research put it on the reading list for the weekend.

Lots to like in the results .... EBITDA breakeven is within spitting distance if they can sustain the performance. Very encouraging.

Agreed. Quality result from a quality company.

I have kept a little back but have bought in the 9s and 10s over the last weeks .... I need a trial start green light to put the rest to work. But my small potatoes will not be having an impact on the stock price.

Out of curiosity would anyone top up on a positive Grand Challenge result or maybe just prior to the announcement ?

Each has a reason to buy ..... mine is clinical trials for some of you it is clearly the Grand Challange..... truth of the matter is raise was done earlier this year at almost double current share price in it was done in order to undertake clinical trials and since they have been delayed and we have no fixed start date shares have only traded down. I don’t think Grand Challange result and no trial start date will take the share price anywhere near to the last CR level. Once they give a green light and a start date shares will trade up .... if that view is enough to get your knickers in a twist you are way to emotionally invested in this stock. Either way shares are a steal at 8 - 10 pence.

Tommy never got enough credit ... he should be on the 50 pound note in my view. That aside not sure what I have said that is negative about the company other than a Grand Challange win will, in my view not relate the share price. I doubt many on this board hold shares based on Scancells participation in the Grand Challange, so not sure it is that radical a view.

No agenda .... I am in but have a kept a little back as I expect a CR ..... that said I view this like an option and the only thing that moves companies like this is steps towards commercialization. I.e. clinical trials..... Clearly that is looking good for next year so that is where I think the focus should be .... CRUK will only have a fleeting impact on the share price in my view.

The prize goes to the team not to scancell and each member of that team will take a share. See below there will be a few slices to serve.

Project Blueprint Team

Prof LG Durrant
University of Nottingham Scancell Ltd., Nottingham
Prof Sahin
TRON, Mainz BioNTech, Mainz
Prof Melief
University of Leiden ISA pharmaceuticals, Leiden
Prof Mellman
Genentech, South San Francisco
Prof Cerundulo
University of Oxford
Prof Balachandran
Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York
Prof de Vries
Radboud University, Nijmegen
Prof Platten
German Cancer Research Center, Heidelberg University Hospital Mannheim Heidelberg University
Prof Rammensee
Eberhard-Karls University Tuebingen
Dr Benham
University of Durham
Prof Ottensmeier
University of Southampton
Prof Jaeger
National Center for Tumor Diseases University Medical Center Heidelberg German Cancer Research Center, Heidelberg
Prof Pandurangan
La Jolla Institute for Allergy & Immunology
Prof Mehanna
University of Birmingham
2.

Crumbs, for me the key word is promising from the quoted report section. We will get there but its another 12 to 18 months and a CR in my view.