Member Info for TommyFlowers

Deadly, I think it is crucial in the patents are granted and that does not trigger the conditions precedents on an already agreed deal .... then the board are up against the clock to find a source of finance and their inaction over the last 3 months can be viewed as reckless.

Deadly, I sense it is more a primal scream from a long term holder who is justifying holding on rather than throwing in his hand .... DGAS sorry if i have miss-interpreted that. I suspect there are far larger issues at play which are affecting the share price at this point.

C7 are you ok .... been 24 hours since you last posted. Since I have been following the board I cant remember you being out of action that long.

A controlled sale ? As I say I am certain they can raise cash.

Ray, fair-point on sample size ... I could expand it to all pharam stocks on AIM or the Pink Sheets (and they all have deals in the works ;) ) and I reckon you come out at 80:20 ..... the final call is a gut call... that is why I think Crumbs seems to have it about right.

As tempting as that would be I have no doubt they will be able to raise money .... it is just at what cost to existing shareholders. I think the hope is that you get strategic investor on the register as part of any placement who start to demand changes.

Dgas, Sadly I think they would do it in a heartbeat .... very very comfortable salaries depend on it. Currently this is a 25million market cap company on AIM and even by that low bar I think think this board is below average.

Crumbs, sounds like a pretty sensible strategy to me .... I am not a million miles away myself .... I have some capital held back to go after we know. Either way there will be value ..... we will raise on a dilutive basis so I can significantly average down or we get a pop on a deal and I think after an initial pop (which I probably would not chase).... value will emerge as it will take weeks/months for the market to properly understand/evaluate the potential and to place a value on that .... happy at that point to average up for a derisked investment.

Hope you are feeling a bit better about the cordiality shown on the BB yesterday ... It seemed an improvement over previous days. If you are inclined I would like to pick up our conversation from yesterday .... Starting with the items I think we were able to agree on.

1. Most non profitable AIM listed companies raise dilutive capital the significant majority of the time.
2. It is a possibility that any raise later this year will be dilutive.

So I think the real difference between us comes down to the potential that the next raise will be dilutive or come from non dilutive sources. So my current position is the probability of a dilutive raise is 60:40 ..... If there is no deal announced at the time the US patents are approved I would take that to lets say 85:15. Let me explain why I think it is 60:40 .... Firstly since !PO 20.3 million has been raised by dilutive financing in 4 placements vs @5 million from 1 non dilutive source. So given both in terms of amounts raised and number of raisings the ratio is about 4:1 that track record would suggest a base line probability of 80:20 .... now we know the Biontech deal is a possibility but we don't know when/if (or truthfully even how much it would be worth) that may occur and we know we are fast approaching the event horizon where a raise is needed. So in my view we should increase the chance of a non dilutive raise from that historical average.... from here it becomes subjective .... so many things can go wrong with a deal especially when you are up against a set timeline that I still come down on the side of a dilutive deal .... so 60/40 feels about right to me.

As I said if we get the various patents granted and this does not trigger the condition precedent on a pre existing deal with Biontech or another, then I am afraid for me it is almost certain we get a dilutive raise, then I would be at 85:15.

Are you (or any others) prepared to share your thinking around this issue ? Here is to an RNS today making me (happily) wrong on this issue. My advice as always, prepare for the worst, hope for the best.

c7, I am sorry you are having a tough week. I think you are wrong about the reasons for the share price drop. We agree that cash is running out we agree that the vast majority of Aim companies use dilutive finance to fund themselves. I think with 45 to 60 days of a realistic buffer a dilutive raise is most likely let’s say 60:40 and rises by the day. I don’t know what you think the odds are? Share and we can move forward from that point.

Nice try Ina .... very scientific !

C7, just on the issue you are right it is relative.... it is relative to the number of shares in issue .... just doing it in my head 500 k share is about 1/2000 of total shares in issue I don’t think that is meaningful.... just using trading days would take you 6.5 years to buy all the shares in issue at that rate.

It is the probability that it will occur, yes. 60:40 in my view . The clock is ticking, time is tight. As you said yourself this morning most AIM companies fund themselves with dilutive finance.

Have not sold a single share to date ... I am in. There are many things I hope for the company ... but I am in based on realism and it is realism that together with the science that will lead to a meaningful and sustainable rerating of the shares. Given the implied vol has been draning from SCLP for years it is almost impossible to trade it in volume and make proper money. As a long term holder yourself you should welcome sustained realism over hope, no? To date which of your hopes for SCLP have resulted in a sustained rally in the share price ?

Based on the below and our tight cash flow and timelines .... dilutive financing possible/probable ?

Today 08:52All companies in any sector on the AIM market without income, rely on dilutive funding to raise money until income is generated. What sets us apart by that inference. The plan has been for many years to licence out, which at the moment we have never been in a better position to achieve.

Not pointless it is the uncertainty around this issue that is reflected in the share price. No one in there right mind would buy in any meaningful way until it is clear. Why buy at 6p when in a month you may see a placement at 5p. It is the only issue that matters to the share price at this point in time .... the longer term issue of how the BOD let it come to this can be fixed in time.

I think you said the CH has said that all funding options are on the table .... so that must include dilutive ? And as it is in the nature of the beast to rely on dilutive finance that must mean (given time is not on our side) that it is a very real possibility maybe even probable?

Let hope for the best but prepare for what happens on AIM the majority of the time !

C7, hope you have the cleaner hard at it....

Given you have conceded it is the nature of the beast and AIM more broadly to finance itself via dilutive finance would you say it is probable that our next raise is dilutive given our tight cash position?

Today 08:52All companies in any sector on the AIM market without income, rely on dilutive funding to raise money until income is generated. What sets us apart by that inference. The plan has been for many years to licence out, which at the moment we have never been in a better position to achieve.

You have all the facts and figures ..... how much equity has been raised since they went public ? We can compare that to your non dilutive number it may be the best proxy we have for assigning a probability to the dilutive or non dilutive debate.

C7 your post would tend to suggest that a dilutive capital raise would be the norm for a company like SCLP could you even say probable ? Given the tightness of the cash position ?