Member Info for TommyFlowers

Xtra .... we are talking about Inans view of the value of SCIB1 alone. We agree the BOD and management are a big part of the problem ... but for some around here that is heresy .

so SCIB 1 is worth £3 per share ? I will make it easy for you ... multiple choice

a) yes ... £3 all day long baby

b) No ... there is a remote possibility it might have been once but management dropped the ball and the moment passed ....

c) No ... it was a mistake and I may have been a tad overoptimistic .... When I said that I had just opened a nice Puligny-Montrachet and was watching the cricket and everything seemed right with world the moment got the better of me ... it happens.

"not backing away from anything" - so SCIB 1 is worth £3 per share ? Lets sell it and put the cash in to the good stuff ... no ?

Ray and Ruck, Thanks for the input. There are some basic concepts of valuation that some on this BB either do not understand or do not want to understand ... it takes all sorts to make a market.

Never easy to get these things "just" right ... this one is going to work out fantastically for you just need to be a little patient thats all.

Sorry to hear about your mother in law .... it is such a cruel disease, I am confident we will make huge inroads towards treating it in the next 10 years and Ixico will play a huge part in that. ATB

Honestly, I dont know what Ixicos policy on insider trading is, it is probably public information .... I know where I have been involved in the past it was anything that was likely to be material to the share price .....

I did not ask if you were happy to buy and hold ! So are you going to answer if you still think we get to £3 on SCIB1 alone ?

Given you have not responded is it fair to conclude that you are backing away from that prediction ? Maybe it was just a mistake and we can all have a giggle about it ? We all make mistakes.

This is just SCIB1, no ?

And you Inan, you still expect £3 ? 54x from here ?

Ruck, lets hope it is not the case but if a placing does occur it is not the end of the world. To me it seems many of the posters on here who will not contemplate a placement are also ones that will not hear a bad word about management. If one happens I wonder if they will see that in a negative light ?

Inanco,

Is SCIB1 still worth 1b + ? £3 a share ? No wonder you don't make predictions about the potential share price any more ... much easier to say it is not relevant ..... from here share price would need to go 54x to get to £3 a share

02/6/15 "simple maths for ONW and Tosh SCIB1 could command $1b plus price tag today ... and it would get that !!! BMS would love to protect there market !!! approx £3 a share .... who is stupid enough not to understand that ... step forward Tosh and ONW love it ..."

Ray, thank you ... your viewpoint about the use of the term probability and its mathematical usage is well made. As you have correctly surmised I have used it more in a more general sense, I agree that a good part of my 80:20 split is gut feel based on experience with other companies and married with SCLPs limited history .... ATB

Shares now pledged .... that is not very good.

Easy to take pot shots at my position on CR probability and price let hear yours most of you are not brave enough ..... Crumbs has said he see a possibility in May ..... C7 has acknowledge that the vast majority of unprofitable AIM listed companies raise capital via dilutive placements. But that is about the extent of it.

I understand some of you old timers are hurting and may not be able or may not want to top up if we get a placement... I am genuinely sympathetic to that .... I get it, it really sucks but closing your eyes and putting your fingers in your ears and singing lalala to yourself does not meant it is not a real possibility. Some will be in a position to benefit if a placement comes and some will see their holding diluted.

It is not the end of Scancell just a normal part of the lifecycle of promising small cap pharma on AIM.

Inan, sorry, do I take it you now understand how a placing would be dilutive or is this one still eluding you ?

So we agree that the IP in its current state is worth multiples of share price .... I assume we agree that the company will need cash in the coming moths ? I have told you how I think the company will get that cash and why (sadly due to poor management) it will be at a fraction of the value of the IP ...... you have said nothing other than I dont get the science. So come on live a little .... clear your mind, imagine you are having a stroll in Pran Buri Forest Park and think about why the share price is not reflective of the science and then let us know what you conclude.

Pap, I don't think it breaks etiquette .... good luck on your other punt .... you will be fine in IXI in the long-term if you are not holding it in an ISA maybe you should think about that.

In the worst case they will get taken over by CRO .... there is lots of private equity money rolling up this fragmented market at this point. It would be hard to make a case for that to be at a price of less than 60p given the amount of cash they are holding. Fundamentally very little downside and plenty of upside it is just going to require a little patience. The other thing I like about it is that although the shareprice may get knocked about a bit in an economic downturn the fundamentals of the business are not dependent on the economic cycle and I think that is not a bad place to be in the coming year or two. Best of luck to you.

Only other thing I would say is that I think the recent director buying is very positive but it probably suggests there are no major contract announcements in the near term as otherwise they would have been restricted in their purchases.

lol .... AD catching up with me should in fact be 7 years .... not really helping myself am I !!!

I am really mystified as to why it is so challenging to some that SCLP "may" be close to doing a placing.

The only reason I can imagine that it would be a challenging is if you have gone all at higher prices and are not prepared to top up. Otherwise it should just be seen as part of the normal life cycle of a clinical stage Pharma on AIM.

* excuse me should be 6 years ago not 5 as stated below.

I dont think I said the science has failed .... I think i said even if the science ultimately does not work out the option value alone is worth more than a shareprice of 5p.

You made the point that the IP is 10x bigger since 2012 --- on March 31st 2012 share price was 11p ... the share price today is 5.5p and if you account for the dilutive raises is actually about 2.3p, So one share held 5 years ago has lost @80% of its value.

So I am saying it is management that has failed not the science, unless you can point to a third variable that I am missing.

Just to absolutely clear .... a company of SCLPs nature should be raising cash regularly and an argument can be made that raising equity at the right price is preferable to shareholders than a licensing deal or something similar at too early a stage. Even if we avoid one this time there will be times in the future where one or two more will likely be necessary or even required. In and of itself there is nothing wrong with that.

The position I find rather odd is the one held by those that deny it is likely or even possible. I understand it is undesirable if you have a high entry price and don't want to commit more capital but it should not be surprising. This has nothing to do with the science itself .... it has everything to do with how the market perceives and values that science and that has everything to do with the BOD ..... After supporting the science side of the business in a practical way it is really there only other job.

So if a capital raise comes and if you are surprised by that and if you are surprised by the price at which it is done given the potential in the science, I would strongly suggest you have a think about the quality of and how you vote your shares at future general meetings.