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Crumbs, SCIB2 is why it is safe to buy at this price .... that does not mean it cannot get cheaper but in a worst case scenario you get at least one fully funded trial and the current management cannot balls it up. Any other pharma that has just SCIB2 on its books and was funded through to read out would have a market cap much higher than ours today. I actually think SCIB2 in its current form is our most easily salable asset and would raise enough to take a placement of the table for the next 18 -254 months at least.

RR, because we are totally in the dark about the delays with respect to SCIB1 ... and cash is required .... when trials were on track and there was no imminent cash issue (6-8 months ago)..... we were above 10p. Other than these two factors nothing has materially changed.

Near term is needed .... Or maybe it is Cliff’s edge that will take us over the cliff edge (sorry I think that one can be improved)

Crumbs, agree strongly with the last part .... hence the virtuous cycle comment. US$10 million in cash is very helpful but short of transformational in my view ... We raised 10 million last year and it has yet to work its magic !

RR for the 100k treatment value are you assuming this is just for SCIB1 ? Or are you assuming it would be used with a checkpoint inhibitor and the total treatment value would be 100k?

Crumbs, it would go a very long way to allowing a virtuous cycle to develop .... I think it is probably (as an upfront figure) a bit shy to put us completely in the clear, that would then depend on the triggers for the milestone payments.

Crumbs, just proves there are still deal out there .... for us I would be hoping for something substantially more front loaded ....

C7, you are right about the if and buts that go in to a model ... yes there are many uncertainties but it how the world works for right or for wrong. We often discuss biontech .... right now a group of investment bankers will be sitting down with a spreadsheet, they will be making assumptions about the cash their pipeline can produce (most likely wildly inaccurate) and they will then be producing a model that provides an NPV .... this will form the basis of their valuation at IPO.

The reason Biontech has cash to be able to potential fund our work is because of financial models ... so for all the distrust of them on this BB ... one way or another it is financial modelling that will ultimately determine what a buyer is prepared to pay for our pipeline.

You might want to think about it as a plot of residential land .... we are a very well located green field site in the green belt without planning permission and we are going to buy it to build a family home. How much are you prepared to pay ? Well you would need to factor in many aspects .... hard to get planning permission in the green belt , will you need to appeal (cost in time and cash) a first rejection, estimate of the cost to build 2,3,4 years out, estimates of the cost of finance.... if you were looking to develop for sale estimates of the market value at the expected time of sale. It is a poor but illustrative ananlogy .... SCLP is that great located green belt development site without planning permission. once we get that permission our value will jump .... but anyone looking at us today has to take account of many risks. Like with the development plot anyone buying will produce a model... it might be in their head or on the back of an envelope .... but it will have financial inputs and financial outputs ... In its simplest form that is a model.

So I would suggest to you that even though you might not be used to some of the terminology or more esoteric concepts you actually are used to financial modelling ... it’s just you probably don’t think of it like that.

You said in the last couple of days that you would be happy with 50p per share ... how did you arrive at that number ? To my mind if certain risk arouud SCLP are removed that seems like a modest number to me.

Inan, I have to go and see a man about a dog but I sense we are on the very of finding that we have some thoughts in common .

1) yes a valuation today is an estimate
2) as we get more data that estimate gets more and more accurate
3) I accept your point about auction scenario ... but any bid will be modelled using discount rates that is a fact
4) NICE, Insurance Companies use discount rates to work out value and reimbursement economics

I accept it is very difficult at this point to capture some of the upside you would see at the edges of the bell curve ... but you are able to build a model that shows a valuation floor. It may surprise Ratty but it is clear that will be a lot higher than the current shareprice even using a discount rate. If you have the mood I would like to continue this at a point in the coming days, your input would make the process a lot more accurate.

Ratty, "What he said" , really ... you could just put that up for all your posts .... save you a lot of time... just copy and paste.

we effectively held an auction 65 NDAs signed ..... No bids.

Your painting analogy is an interesting one ... so we have 25% complete and I value it based on what we know about the artist and his auction recored .... you are effectively saying with the same stage it is going to be a masterpiece, break auction records etc .... I am asking how you are able to say that ... It may surprise you to hear I would be ok with "it is an educated guess ... its an art not a science dont you know" but I dont think that is what you are saying.

See Ratty earlier today you said this to me.

"as if his 'research' is actually any better than a load of chartwork with bells and whistles on it, or frankly worse than a long hard broad look at science and the general market and appetite for development"

So I asked you to give me an overview of the science and the general market for the science and what it might be worth on the assumption you had a view... but it fingers might have gotten a bit ahead of you on the keyboard ... if I want to know what you think about the science I will ask Inan as suggested.

Ratty, what you don't do science now ? I thought you did the Science or at least had a view .... not to worry, did not mean to push you out of your comfort zone .....

Ratty, your views on the science ... anytime you are ready.

Ruck,

You are right about what Inan could offer ....

I am thinking through the efficacy issue raised by Ray, I can see how a significantly more effective treatment would/could create a premium over the standard of care. I am struggling to see how you would quantify what that premium might be at this point in time .... I think it also ends up intersecting with things life reimbursement economics other treatments that may be under development ... not straight forward but an interesting angle ... something to contemplate in a quiet moment.

Inan lets go back to your GBP 3 per share prediction for SCIB1 ... how do you get to that number if you did not use some form of model or valuation methodology ?

it means i hope you will find someone to buy your business that pays no heed to valuation !!

Ratty, my dear old thing ... I know numbers can be scary so lets do the science as you requested .... tell us about the science ... tell us what you know about it, tell us what it is worth, tell us what a pharma will pay for it, tell us what royalties it will generate .... tell us something Ratty ..... and if you are feeling really bold tell us why you have those thoughts.

Still hope you find a rich idiot because when you come to sell that business anyone else will value it with a model and you know it ! ..... Yes any model would include the cash generated via sale of income from the science ... care to give some reasoned thoughts on this aspect ?

:) Inan .... you do make me chuckle ... When you built your business and I assumed sold them, I hope you are found a rich idiot ... because most of the financial world is built on models ... especially if you have to provide some form of justification to external shareholders, bondholders, a bank ....... If you have been able to avoid them then count yourself lucky.