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Government document warns of scarcity in kits when schools and universities return in January. Suggests that we will see a repeat of September's test availability in January.

But also:

Meanwhile, the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency, the UK regulator, has for the first time approved rapid Covid-19 tests for use at home by members of the public, according to two people with knowledge of the decision.

The authorisation of the use of lateral flow devices, which give results in under 30 minutes, by people without medical expertise follows the first such approval of an over-the-counter rapid test by the US regulator last week. The MHRA is keen to emphasise, however, that the devices are allowed to be used only to “find” cases of Covid-19 infections, so that people who were not aware they had the virus are able to isolate. They are not to be used to “enable” people to make life decisions, it said.

Lateral flow tests have been the subject of fierce debate, with some claiming they are highly inaccurate and dangerous if used as the basis for decisions on whether it is safe to visit elderly relatives or end periods of isolation.

In the first lockdown, we got R down to 0.7. Later lockdowns were less good. If the new variant really is 70% more infectious, even the extreme measures of the first lockdown might not be sufficient to contain Covid if the new variant becomes dominant, though over time vaccinations and herd immunity of the previously infected could also help.

In suppose thats why we saw yesterday's reaction.

The Test and Trace people who were caught by surprise in September when the return to school increased the demand for tests, now seem to have been caught by surprise when the visit to gran at Christmas resulted in an increase in demand for tests. At least the website is saying that at the moment.

Anyone know a test supplier who could step in?

It’s Christmas eve in 2040 and Alistair Smith has just announced that Avacta continues to make good progress at developing its Covid-19 rapid test.

The bulletin boards erupt with posts by rampers and derampers on this latest announcement:
“Strap in.”
“Yet another slippage.”
“is it us?”
“£5 by New Year.”
“Here goes, Awacta”
“I feel misled”
“Get ready for the £50billion tender”
“The trolls are out in force, today”
“Miles has just tweated”
“Who is Awacta”
“Has Sir Al finished his extension yet?”

Of course Covid-19, and indeed Avacta itself have long since past. Their carers just encourage bulletin board posting a part of their programme of living with their dementia.

Biden is planning 100million shots in 100 days. I suppose that means around 50million vaccinated by the end of April - ie only 15% of the US by end of April.

Some will remember that in early Noveember Prof Sir John Bell said there were 6 that looked good. Here was our list, do we still think its right?

Sure Screen
Healgen
SK Biosensor
Innova
Mologic
Avacta

From the Lancet, not yet clear it works with for over 70s:

We have reported immunogenicity data showing
similar immune responses following vaccination with two
doses of ChAdOx1 nCov-19 in older adults, including those
older than 70 years of age, when compared with those
younger than 55 years. As older age groups were recruited
later than younger age groups, there has been less time for
cases to accrue and as a result, efficacy data in these cohorts
are currently limited by the small number of cases, but
additional data will be available in future analyses.

I have just had another look at the results from Saccovid, the drug that Merck have just purchased from Oncolmmune for $425million a few days ago. It seems they have not done a phase 2 trial for Covid and their results for phase 3 are based on data for 146 people so not many more than our phase 2 trials. I’m sure we need a larger trial to confirm but our mortality figures far surpass their 50% improvement at the moment!

Or have I missed something?

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200924005201/en/OncoImmune’s-SACCOVID™-CD24Fc-Exhibits-Superb-Therapeutic-Efficacy—A-Potential-Breakthrough-in-Treating-Severe-and-Critical-COVID-19

Has anyone got a view on dip sticks versus the full plastic encased tests? I know in the Q&A they said that there is a risk the user touches the test strip. But might Avacta be able to mass manufacture a dip stick (using Affimers) at the Mina price point of a $1 a strip?

Interesting comparison in the two (see below). The question is why are we not talking enough about treatments?

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-questions-we-must-ask-about-the-covid-vaccine
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/could-ten-million-covid-tests-a-day-get-britain-back-to-normal

"However, as a microbiologist who has worked on vaccine discovery, I struggle to see how, despite this very welcome leap, we can possibly be back to normal by spring."

"In all the excitement about the Pfizer and BioNTech vaccine, it was easy to miss news of the other great hope for getting our lives back to some form of normal. Vaccines are not expected to have much impact for most of us this winter and it will be several years before they suppress Covid-19 globally. For now, a mass testing programme — not any jab — is probably the best chance of putting Covid back in its box. It has been piloted this week in Liverpool and it might be coming to us all in the near future."

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-questions-we-must-ask-about-the-covid-vaccine
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/could-ten-million-covid-tests-a-day-get-britain-back-to-normal

Do a comparison.

"However, as a microbiologist who has worked on vaccine discovery, I struggle to see how, despite this very welcome leap, we can possibly be back to normal by spring."

"In all the excitement about the Pfizer and BioNTech vaccine, it was easy to miss news of the other great hope for getting our lives back to some form of normal. Vaccines are not expected to have much impact for most of us this winter and it will be several years before they suppress Covid-19 globally. For now, a mass testing programme — not any jab — is probably the best chance of putting Covid back in its box. It has been piloted this week in Liverpool and it might be coming to us all in the near future."

From a chat early November:

Sure Screen
Healgen
SK Biosensor
Innova
Mologic
Avacta

As I think about it, my take is that Bell was talking about rapid tests in general. Not home use Saliva Lateral flow devices. There might be fewer than 6 of those.

Professor Sir John Bell mentioned that they have found 6 rapid tests that are “really good”.
With thanks to AfamaMan and CautiousOptimist, here might be the 6:

1. Avacta lfd - known to govmt and seems to be what they mean by the holy grail and may have undergone preliminary evaluation despite fact that their is no batch produced yet. The CEO seems to be using the same language as Bell about finding the "infectious level" of infection.
2. Mologic test - maybe ready for sale in november and initially supported by govmt and gates foundation.
3. Innova tried and tested - a test actually made in china which govmt has bought and imported by planes going to doncaster sheffield. There is some suggestion that these are assembled in uk and Boris might have sneakily being talking about this test when referring to uk manufactured.
4. SK Biosensor
5. Healgen
6. Sure Screen Diagnostics. I seem to remember their first test was planned for professional use but its also easier to get that authorisation.

Or are there others?

Could 6 be Sure Screen Diagnostics? I seem to remember their first test was planned for professional use.

So who are the six?

He is HMG's testing advisor.

She is the head of the UK vaccine taskforce and has a oped in the Lancet.

HMG needs to put the same effort into treatment! And consider the (unproven) maths:
Covid + SNG < normal winter flu.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32175-9/fulltext

It looks to me as if it’s machine generated.

Agree Cosmicstar. I was reacting to them charging £120!