Member Info for Titania

To add to Woodstock, its worth remembering the maths.

% required for herd immunity = (1-(1/R0))/vaccine effectiveness.

R0 is the level of R if there was no one in the population had any immunity.

So if we have an R0 of 3 and a 90% effective vaccine, we get to needing 75% herd immunity to suppress the virus. That’s where we were a year ago.

The variants have changed things.

The Indian variant is potentially 50% more transmissible than the Kent Variant which in itself was 50% more than the original wuhan strain. If variants make the vaccine say only 80% effective at stopping transmission, we can never reach herd immunity. We can only suppress the virus by social distancing. And use vaccines to reduce the chance of death. Those that cannot or will not have the vaccine are at risk.

In this scenario, it is evident that we will need treatments for a very long time.

https://www.nytimes.com/1982/11/14/magazine/stalking-the-common-cold.html

Three not Tree!

It’s worth re reading the Fauchi paper from last year. He highlighted only tree possible antivirals. As others have said it’s a narrow field. The US, EU and UK could all end up with us. And they will all want stock piles by the end of the summer in case we get a vaccine busting variant for next winter.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2773058

https://financialpost.com/news/economy/imf-says-world-can-end-the-covid-19-pandemic-with-this-50-billion-plan

Therapeutics to play a part.

Antivirals Taskforce
"The newly established Antivirals Taskforce will work in conjunction with the Therapeutics Taskforce, working with industry experts to identify, develop and procure novel antivirals at pace that can be used at the earliest stage of infection."

"These treatments will support the current therapeutics and vaccines taskforces by intervening at an earlier stage and augmenting the treatments we already have in place."

antiviralstaskforce@dhsc.gov.uk

This description sounds promising for SNG

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/pune/more-than-twice-as-many-men-than-women-died-in-states-2-covid-waves/articleshow/82394167.cms

All the press today about how the 21 June reopening is at risk given the Indian variant, makes me wonder if there was any way we could get EUA in the UK in time to save the reopening. The PM can avoid his Teresa May moment.

Or is that timing unrealistic?

Yes simultaneous posting!

https://twitter.com/MARYau_MCU_PH/status/1311409036311621632

https://www.lequotidiendumedecin.fr/bcb/produit/669767/nom/SNG001%2012%20MUI-mL%20Aérosol%20nébuliseur

There are around 2 million over 50s who have not taken up the jab. As Han**** said, the virus could spread like wildfire in this group. We need an urgent treatment quickly.

RM said he has a lot of emails from India presumably begging for SNG in their crisis. I hope his answer was willing to ship to you if the right approvals are gained in your country and not some rendition about stockpiling!!!

https://science.thewire.in/health/new-highs-eight-lions-in-hyderabad-zoo-test-positive-for-covid-19/

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/tiger-found-dead-in-madhya-pradesh-third-in-a-week-7316132/

Let us hope that wild big cat species can survive covid!

https://twitter.com/mygovindia/status/1392757728385241098?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1392757728385241098%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Findianexpress.com%2Farticle%2Flifestyle%2Fhealth%2Fcovid-19-in-children-how-to-manage-asymptomatic-or-mild-cases-in-home-isolation-7314736%2F

Interferon B1a mentioned in this India government tweet as not appropriate for use at home in mild cases for children!

https://science.thewire.in/the-sciences/zydus-virafin-pegylated-interferon-alpha-2b-india-dcgi-approve-covid-trial-methods-flaw/

Sorry in advance if this has already been posted

RITU RAJ SINGH (@RITURAJSINGH007) Tweeted: @prakashpandey70 @RajKeplerhume I think he would have survived anyway without the two
plasma is no longer in use in EU UK or USA !!!!!!
monoclonal antibodies are being used now and in India Interferon has been given green signal for emergency use pending phase 3 trials !!!!!
https://twitter.com/RITURAJSINGH007/status/1391704145883586563?s=20

Seems like this might be SNG phase 3 trial. At least there is one person in India who thinks we have been given green signal for emergency use pending phase 3 trials!

Variants and new tests?

https://chicagodefender.com/rise-above-covid-on-the-importance-of-clinical-trials/

134 sites active so far

It seems to me that Richard is keen not to appear presumptuous about a possible imminent
approval. Hence no numbers for manufacturing etc.