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Interesting that the WHO have come out with a question on the effectiveness of antibodies, questioning whether somebody with antibodies may not be immune - see below. This ties in with the experience of South Korea where some people seem to have caught the virus again. If this is right, there will be reduced impact from a vaccine or having had the disease before (herd immunity). I rather hope that this will be only reduced impact - not no impact at all.

But under all circumstances, this raises the importance of treatment, potentially including breathing interventions like moving patients earlier onto their stomach; the earlier application of oxygen and antibiotics such as Moxifloxacin, Azithromycin or Ceftriaxone to deal with secondary infections; and newer or repurposed drugs such as potentially Hydroxychloroquine (maybe), Remdesivir, Dexamethasone, and SNG001.

The stakes are higher on SNG001. If the trials work, we need to be ready to fund a massive build up in manufacturing. Or like last time, waive our pre-emption rights. Or agree a partnership/takeover.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52335210

Agree the numbers are still small. Portsmouth is 1200 beds versus 1110 at Southampton. But I think Southampton will get more patients than Portsmouth as it's a teaching hospital. Been trying to find patient numbers by hospital but it does not seem to be published - the numbers are regional. Has anyone found a source on this?

Good point on the recovery trial but my understanding is that had not started yet at Southampton. Or do others have better information on this?

I have been looking at the mortality information for Portsmouth and Southampton hospitals. Similar sized hospitals in the same part of the UK. Small numbers but Portsmouth seems to have had 7 deaths since the start of April and Southampton has had 4. That would be in line with 50% placebo at Southampton. I don't know how many at Southampton are outside the trial. And there is clearly a chance that SNG001 could just delay mortality (like with SARs). And it's early days. But there is a chance that the numbers suggest that SNG001 could save lives and those of us who have been in for over a month are doing our bit by supporting the share price so that the funding could happen.

What do others think?

Has anyone seen this?

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7138382/

I thought it was interesting in explaining that despite a "combination of IFNß with lopinavir/ritonavir against MERS-CoV improved pulmonary function but did not significantly educe virus replication or lung pathology severity", that IFNß1 appears to be most relevant interferon to treat coronavirus infections.

What do others think?

What’s your view on pricing?

No that’s why I did 2 years in my first case! But have a read on the oxford vaccine team. They are talking about September. Seems too early given all the safety checks. And manufacturing will take time. But you might want to factor it in when you do your sizing.

Agree there could be upside after 2 years but on Covid-19 there could also be a vaccine which would reduce demand. There is a risk that the vaccine could arrive earlier which could reduce the Covid-19 window for sng001. What would be your numbers?

NewbieRookie, are you saying that there is no chance of a vaccine for COPD and Asthma? Or for COVID-19? But the way I agree the need to have something for COPD and Asthma. See my new post.

I have updated my numbers - see next post

Sorry for previous - ignore that one.

Has anyone done a potential sizing? Any research reports? I have done an update below.

Here’s a start.

HMG’s plans are for 30k ICU beds in the UK; If we gross up to a global target population of 2.5bn (OECD+China) get to 1.2million beds, in “rich countries”. Turn the beds 3 time a year during the pandemic - might be more. Administer the drug to say 20% of this population in 3 doses. This comes to 2million doses in a year – interestingly Richard Marsden on the Business Insider interview says they can manufacture “100 of thousand and millions of dosages”. Contribution, say, $750 a dose - Avonex sells for $1,800 in the US.

Overall comes to a contribution of $2 billion a year. Assume virus runs for 2 years before a vaccine works. Then no value after. So value $4billion or £27 a share. Less than 5% of the market cap of AZN.

Could be less if Governments pay less for the drug. More if we see more of these outbreaks (we have already had SARs) or flu style we get a new version every year or so. And upside from COPD and Asthma.

What do others think?

And DYOR

Sorry fat fingers. will repost.

Has anyone done a potential sizing? Any research reports?

Here’s a start.

HMG’s plans are for 30k ICU beds in the UK; If we gross up to a global target population of 2.5bn (OECD+China) get to 1.2million beds, in “rich countries”. Turn the beds 3 time a year during the pandemic. Administer the drug to say 20% of this population in 3 doses. This comes to 2million doses in a year – interestingly Richard Marsden on the Business Insider interview says they can manufacture “100 of thousand and millions of dosages”. Contribution, say, $750 a dose - Avonex sells for $1,800 in the US.

Overall comes to a contribution of $2 billion a year. Assume virus runs for 2 years before a vaccine works. Then no value after. So value $4billion or £27 a share. Less than 5% of the market cap of AZN.

Could be less if Governments pay less for the drug. More if we see more of these outbreaks (we have already had SARs) or flu style we get a new version every year or so.

What do others think?

And DYOR

I have just cancelled my premium service for the same reason. Does anyone have any experience with a better supplier of Level 2 data?

Kanzan84, I think you have the wrong AA.

;-)

The company has a lot of debt. Its a risky investment as a result. Only invest what you can afford to lose on this one.

Anyone seen a list of all the trials anywhere?

Does any one know the other hospitals? Beyond Southampton and Nottingham?

Oilornothing: Am I right in that even after the issue, Holgate and Marsden have around 0.59% to 0.25% each? If the drug wins big, I don't see them wanting to cash out for less than £1billion. Not that I have met them. But instead they could partner with AZ.

Has anyone done a potential sizing? Any research reports?

Here’s a start.

HMG’s plans are for 30k ICU beds in the UK; If we gross up to a global target population of 2.5bn (OECD+China) get to 1.2million beds, in “rich countries”. Turn the beds 3 time a year during the pandemic. Administer the drug to say 20% of this population in 3 doses. This comes to 2million doses in a year – interestingly Richard Marsden on the Business Insider interview says they can manufacture “100 of thousand and millions of dosages”. Contribution, say, $750 a dose - Avonex sells for $1,800 in the US.

Overall comes to a contribution of $2 billion a year. Assume virus runs for 2 years before a vaccine works. Then no value after. So value $4billion or £27 a share. Less than 5% of the market cap of AZN.

Could be less if Governments pay less for the drug. More if we see more of these outbreaks (we have already had SARs) or flu style we get a new version every year or so.

What do others think?

And DYOR

Sorry. Too much traffic.