Member Info for TinkerT

Think Meoryou’s right about the divi causing the unexpected burst of enthusiasm. Who’d have thought that Q1’s better results would have produced the fall that they did and this set a rise?

T

Mark,

7.5p UP at the moment but time will tell.

T

But debt increasing?

T

Divi up! Glad I was wrong.

Tinker

Before somebody jumps in and says “The 37% decline in the real value of the fund includes management charges”, I will say that I know there are management charges. My point is that why would customers come to Aviva and pay our “experts” a management charge so that they could see their investment decline in real terms by 37%? Why are we as a company employing such complete incompetents?

Tinker

16 years ago, I invested a small amount in an Aviva investment bond. I wisely chose the option that gave me a guarantee of an index-linked return. Today, the notional value of that fund (the amount I would have got if I hadn’t opted for the guarantee) is only 63% of the amount I will actually get. So the Aviva fund managers using their “expertise” have managed to drop 37% behind inflation.

I contrast this with my own, amateurish efforts at share trading. Why am I, an idiot, so much better than the experts?

Tinker

I completely understand the logic of selling today in anticipation of (comparatively) rubbish results tomorrow. I’m holding because I have no confidence in my own judgement on these things. I’m as bad as you, Meoryou. Also, I’m pinning my hopes on the possibility that the market now expects us to miss the predictions and that failure and no divi increase is priced in. All of that seems no more insane than everything else.

Also, I hear something about the Scottish Government wanting to make possession on a gas boiler a criminal offence, punishable by incarceration in a woman’s prison (provided you are a man) and vice versa.I may have misheard the last bit.

Tinker

CJ39,

Those are my views too. I have the sale proceeds of a house to invest before paying for another. I’ve put some into an instant access savings account where I’m getting 4%+ and £50,000 into Premium Bonds where I get anywhere between zero and a million. I’d be mad to increase my share holdings, having dropped 13% on Aviva and a similar percentage on my other big holding, BP.

On BP, it’s additionally galling to be castigated as a war profiteer and destroyer of the environment when I’m only getting a yield of less than 4%.

As you say, AV. (like BP) has a record of solid results. The market is insane. I’d like to think that sense will prevail over the longer term but who know!

Tinker

Warthog,

Don’t know why you’re complaining about the Income Tax rises. The important thing to remember is that all the money is wisely spent by the Government. I for one, am overjoyed that people from all over the world can come to Britain and live at my expense.

(Warning: This post may contain sarcasm. )

Tinker

Nick,

That’s a timely reminder. I just hope our Board are being honest with us. I am in DLG as well. They gave firm guidance about the security of the divi last year shortly before cancelling it. I trust nobody any more.

Tinker

I suppose the other point is that Shell, paying out 33cents a share is back to 70% of their pre-panicdemic divi of 47cents. We should be at 7.35cents to be at an equivalent level

T

I’m not sure that the BoD sees things quite as we do. We, the investors, want a higher divi and capital growth through a higher SP. But the Board wants to get its buyback programme completed at minimal cost. They might be thinking that the best way to do that is to keep SP low by keeping divi down. I hope I’m wrong.

Tinker

Yes, Meoryou. I certainly hope we see your headline sometime soon.

T

What has just happened? Is there something obvious? Suddenly we’re down 11p.

T

Ok, I know it’s only marginally down and the others are only marginally up.

T

I try to be optimistic but when I see Brent UP, the FTSE 100 UP, buybacks around 8 million in a day and our SP DOWN then I find it all a bit depressing.

T

Not sure that we should get too excited by the slight improvement in SP over the past few days as it seems to correspond to a bigger spending on buybacks. Nevertheless, I agree there are encouraging signs.

T

I could be wrong but I think the last time we closed under 450p was last Oct. Just got to hold on tight.

T

Clydecrusader,

If I remember rightly, you were last year’s winner. I see you’ve downgraded your entry from £6.25 to £4.85. Any specific reason? I know it’s cheeky to ask but given your exemplary track record.....

Tinker

Surely what we have to pay to the customers we short-changed is only half the story. What about the business we will lose due to this bad publicity? Potential customers will be wary of us, thinking they will not get a proper settlement of any future claim unless or until the FCA gets wind of irregularities and orders a review.

Tinker