Member Info for TinkerT

Anyone looking at today’s SP would be forgiven for thinking today was xd date. We’ve had the divi drop before the divi drop. I topped up at 499 and thought I was clever. More fool me. This one pokes its head above £5 now and again and we all cheer but the reality is that for most of the year we’re well below that.

Great opportunities for traders I suppose. It is what it is.

T

Theaky, you’re probably right. I think the inconsistency re Rosneft was at the back of my mind hen I posted. It looks very much as though we abandoned (possibly) Rosneft because the nice (people like us) Ukrainians were getting bashed but when it comes to the (not very much like us) Palestinians getting bashed, we sign up with the people doing the bashing.

Well, it has always been like that and will be for the foreseeable....

T

The 1983 Labour election manifesto (the Michael Foot one) was, after their humiliating defeat, described as “the longest suicide note in history”. Bernard Looney’s “Performing while Transforming” is doing for us what Foot manifesto did for them. We’ve got rid of him. Time to ditch the policy too.

T

I think there are a few points worth making:

1. When the Ukraine war started, we lost out financially (probably) due to the Rosneft situation. Wars (sadly) are one of the factors that affect the value of an investment. One moved us down, the other (possibly) has moved us up.

2. Extracting and refining oil isn’t like arms manufacturing. We’re not directly benefiting from other people’s misery.

3. As individuals we can use, if we choose, some of our gain to help relief charities.

In short, I don’t think we have good reasons to feel guilty.

(I hope this doesn’t sound glib.)

T

I’ve reduced too..... so that probably means £6 by 2:35pm.

T

“Standing on the right side of history” sounds as if it’s straight from Tony Blair. And when I say “straight”, I obviously mean a lie.

There isn’t anything to “balance”. The job of a CEO of an energy company is to maximise the earnings of the energy company, within the rules set by governments. It’s not for CEOs to be backdoor Gretas.

T

I’ll just make my customary complaint that the divi is holding us back. 4% is rubbish. I’m getting twice that at Aviva. Buybacks, a strong balance sheet etc are all very well but buybacks are not giving us any degree of stability. We are at the mercy of swings in oil price all the time, witness the 10% surge in the last 7 trading days. Do we need a war to get near to February’s SP?

Everybody is different but my personal circumstances make “tiramisu tomorrow” less attractive than a Tunnocks Teacake today so I’ll be looking to reduce if we get a lift with results in two weeks.

T

There will only be peace in Palestine/Israel when there is either (a) the total genocide of one side or the other or (b) a recognition of the rights of both sets of people to live there. Sadly, there are plenty of people who, while paying lip service to option”b”, in their hearts wouldn’t rule out “a”.

T

Shabz83,

Yip. I have to admit I would miss my 8+% divies year in year out. A 50% capital gain if we were offered £6 might be nice though.

The important thing is things look good either way.

T

Mark, for one. And a few more besides.

Oil back up. We’re back up too. Last week was a blip.

Well done to everybody who seized the buying opportunity. (Wish I had.)

T

From a trading point of view, the more rumours and counter-rumours the better. Sell some on rumour. Buy more on counter rumour. Repeat. (That’s the theory. With my track record, I’ll get the timing hopelessly wrong.)

T

Ps Meoryou, for the avoidance of doubt, its your piece about the cycle being repeated for the third time this year that I’m specifically agreeing with.

T

Meoryou,

Exactly! We dipped below 450p as recently as the end of June. Congratulations to everybody who did well in their trading and commiserations to everybody (including myself) who didn’t.

The things that will really affect us medium term will be the direction taken by the new CEO and what happens to our stake in Rosneft. The ups and downs of PoO don’t have lasting consequences.

T

13th September. 14p fall.

14th September. 16p rise.

Let’s hope history repeats itself.

T

That’s “Gingy” obviously.

Ginny,

I suppose the bright side is that we’ve not got a well spurting out oil into the Gulf of Mexico.

T

Everything that was true about BP last week at 549 is still true today at 499. I will keep telling myself this but it won’t stop me kicking myself for not selling.

T

WP,

Take it you meant “obscure” not “obtuse”. Predictive text no doubt.

I’m glad that I was out and about and unable to trade when we spiked at 549p. The temptation to reduce would have been too great. Glad I’m still in as I think this still has a fair way to go.

T

WP, you’re right. I’d forgotten that.

T