Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Hi JSC!
Thanks for posting. Worth noting that the article dates from August, so a few statements are already out of date (e.g. Sekaka sale has now completed).

Hi Ragnar!
Good spot. I missed that.
Phoevos defended Tharisa's spend on R&D very well in the conference call, noting that it had pushed up PGM recoveries from 55% to 80%, and that it had led to the Vulcan fine chrome recovery plant.
He also addressed the issue of ferrochrome smelting. He stated that they had looked at all ferrochrome plants currently in business rescue in SA, and concluded that they were too old and inefficient to be of interest, and involved too much Capex. He was positive about the idea of toll smelting - we'll see where that goes over the next year, I guess.
In terms of the market here, as far as I can tell almost all the trades yesterday and today are buys - perhaps not surprisingly, considering the results and the outlook for next year. We obviously still have our block seller in the background. It looks like we are slowly chewing through a large sale made at about 87p at the moment.

(Sorry, off topic...)
Hi HighAndDry!
I've sold out of most of my gold shares as well, and moved a lot of funds into Tharisa and SLP (not JLP, as it is a riskier play) and a platinum ETF (SPLT).
I've made money out of Centamin over the years, but I too am thinking it might be the moment to part ways for good. The fact is the old management mismanaged and high-graded the mine and burnt money in West Africa and misled shareholders. Now the new management (which was appointed by the old management) is blaming their predecessors for everything and promising a new start. Really? This behaviour is more like that of an AIM minnow than a FTSE250 participant. I wonder if Centamin isn't ripe for a serious derating of its share price by the market.
IMO, commodities is the play for 2021, not Bitcoin. Not so much oil, but things like copper, nickel, phosphates and potash and so on. PGMS, too. Hopefully, even chrome will make a comeback - stainless steel demand is meant to increase by about 5% a year over the next few years.

m.youtube.com/watch?v=MEfqszHe42s&t=305s
(Link copied from ADVFN).

So the dividend will be 3.5 cents per share. That's roughly a yield of 3% at the current share price, which is good.
But can anybody see any dates for ex-dividend and payment in today's results? I can't find any.

Are we all being too blasé about the Sekaka deal? Obviously, the price and payment terms are fantastic, and can only be explained by Petra being on the brink of bankruptcy and needing to sell.
So far I've assumed that the value of the deal lies in the database and the trial mining plant. But reading today's RNS I sense that BOD are thinking about actually mining diamonds from the KX36 pipe.
I wonder how the share price would have reacted if BOD had discovered the KX36 pipe, rather than purchased it?!?

Morning, Ragnar!
I assume the large trade receivables amount reflects the longer time the PGM refiners are taking to pay their suppliers since Covid hit - just the same as with SLP. It should unwind over the next few months.
It looks like they are pushing forward with Vulcan.
I get a crazy projected EPS figure for the current financial year. If I haven't blooped, it makes the current share price a real bargain.

For those interested in keeping an eye on "the neighbours", Tharisa (THS) annual results are out this morning.
Very strong financial performance founded on rhodium price, with more to come over the current year.

Very happy with annual results on first reading.
Good dividend at 3.5 cents.
Best of all, prospects for the current financial year (160K oz. 6PGM mid-point guidance x current much increased PGM basket price) are very bright.

Hi Jef!
I agree with your medium term optimism about gold.
But right now the markets are in a state of euphoria. All fundamental metrics agree that the US markets have never been priced more highly, CNN's fear and greed index is up in the 90s, and the evidence of flows is that most investors are all-in long, and employing substantial leverage as well. This makes investing - in anything, not just gold or gold miners - right now a dangerous proposition. The fire is made; all it needs is a spark to set off a violent correction.

Come on Miagi - integrity?!?
From you? Who stalks other posters from board to board and posts complete fictions about them?
Yes, you know it's true.

I think today's drop also reflects the shock effect of the news that Arcadia (Top Shop, Burtons etc.) are on the brink of going bust.
I still believe SHOE is a survivor, but it's brutal out there in the High Street.

Hi Slimbo!
Thanks for the reply. I take the point about Blue Fox on Hot Copper. I'm just trying to gain an initial understanding of the company's overall position for now. (FWIW, I'm confident that SOP and phosphates are two commodities worth investing in over the next decade. The question is which are the best vehicles to achieve that end).
IMO, trading should have been suspending here if it was suspended on the ASX. For now, I'll wait and see how the capital raise / refinancing goes before making an investment decision here. Hopefully, the company will be clear about where they stand in relation to EPA approvals and the Taurus financing. (I assume that the current raise is taking place because one of the conditions precedent on the Taurus money has indeed not been met).
Now to find a really good and undervalued phosphates miner!

twitter.com/BotswanaDiamond/status/1332244988638486528/photo/1

I'm looking to invest in potash and phosphate fertiliser stocks for 2021, and I came across SO4 today as I'm doing my basic research.
I've read through the company website and the chat on here and Hot Copper (which is truly alarming).
What approvals are SO4 still waiting for before the Taurus finance facility can be unlocked? I assume that currently a cash raise is in process in Australia to fill the hole left by the non-arrival of the Taurus money (and the need to repay the bridge loan by November 30th).
Is this about right? If so, it seems incredibly reckless that the directors have committed to all this expenditure with a key EPA authorisation not obtained.

Final results on Monday. We already know EPS quadrupled over the year before.
Hoping for dividend restoration.
Looking forward, if you assume the current PGM basket price holds, and there are no production problems etc., then prospects for the current financial year look superb.

Hi FallingKnife!
I think you've got to separate SHOE from its market-makers.
£1 is probably near fair value for a business like Shoezone right now as we emerge from the worst of the pandemic. Remember - unlike most other retailers - that Shoezone went into this crisis without debts.
I don't how much genuine selling went on first thing this morning, and how much of it was a "raid" by the market-makers to trigger stop losses and pick up cheap shares. I've seen similar with other companies - it's happened several times when Sylvania Platinum (an excellent company) reported their usual excellent results. For the market-makers it's just a way to encourage volume and make a profit. AIM can be a dirty game...

Not long to wait now, I'd guess. Certainly this side of Christmas...

SHOE RNS's are always downbeat - everybody needs to realise that.
This company is run by dependable, capable, honest, "the glass is half empty" pessimists. That's just who management is.
If you want to be told bedtime fairy stories full of rainbows and unicorns, there are lots of CEOs on AIM who will be happy to oblige. But not here.

I'm guessing the Rainbow Warrior is not interested.
Their best opportunity for publicity was to stage a big "action" as the Icemax left port. Trailing a ship across the Atlantic just doesn't provide useful news footage.