Member Info for TigerByTheTail

For God's sake, stop touting investments like this on this bulletin board. It's illegal. As well as fantastically reckless.

Hi Addicknt!
FWIW, that's my take on it as well. BOD stays in place (though opposed by NC and Cornerstone), specials are defeated by an alliance of NC, Cornerstone, BHP and others.
That result would scupper any "go it alone" financing plan for Alpala, and force NM to either sell to a major, or enter into a JV. Personally, I can't help thinking that would be best for all involved - including PIs.

I think the GGP bubble met its pin today.
Reality can be harsh. I'd imagine that the share has now seen its all time highs, and it will drop back to a more sensible valuation. Which is a long, long way down.

And, fundamentally, HUM is a stonking buy.
It's funny how the two investment methodologies can be so completely opposed.
Apart from anything else, somebody should tell Pasofino investors that they would get a lot more bang for their buck by putting their money in Hummingbird. Not only would you get a 51% free carried interest in their big asset, but you would get a share of a working mine as well.

Where do the shoes that SHOE sell come from?
I assume that most of them come from the Far East, and they are imported directly into the UK, so a no deal Brexit won't be a problem. But does anybody know for sure?

Hi Sirius!
Your post is a little mischievous.
Yes, SLP are exposed to movements in the rand/USD exchange rate. Both in the sense that their costs (expressed in USD) go up when the rand goes up, and in the sense that the value of their cash pile (held partly in rand) also increases (when expressed in USD). So swings and roundabouts.
BUT, movements in the PGM basket price have been far more significant over the last year than fluctuations in the USD/rand rate. And SLP make far more than a 10% profit margin!
In short, I'm looking for an @ $25m profit from Q1 based on on target production and costs. And that's not too shabby, however you slice it and dice it!

Hi Napthman!
I'm afraid not. Yes, the resource will grow a bit - maybe up to 5m ounces. Of which GGP own 30%. That categorically DOES NOT justify a 1.15bn pounds mcap.
Mcap should be about a tenth of what it is. Nothing to do about that now - most investors here will lose most of their money, that's all. Give your manners, I won't be crying for you. Over and out.

Wow! Only 3.4m ounces!
Mcap here and the actual size of resource are massively, ludicrously out of kilter.
To give an example - HUM have a resource of 4.2m ounces at Dugen, which they will own 51% of once the DFS is completed. They also own 90% of a mine producing 100K ounces of gold a year. They mcap? About £100m.
Or another - GGP's market cap is not that much smaller than CEY. CEY have 15m ounces of resource and a working mine producing 400,000 to 500,000 ounces per year.
AIM has done it again!

Hi Sirius!
No, the special "metal price" dividend hasn't been announced yet. Jacoo said it would come in Q1 2021.
I assume that means with the interims in February, but that's only my assumption.
If this is a profit take before the end of the year, then most funds close their books for the year a week or so before Christmas.
Good luck bottom fishing! I'll be at it with you!

Hi HighAnd Dry!
I make it that a largish investor is taking profit and so pushing down the share price. It could be linked to the approaching year end.
Given that Q2 results in January should be excellent (given the basket price and the wind down of trade receivables), and that we are due a "metal price special dividend" with the interims soon afterwards, I'm viewing this as a buying opportunity.
I don't know where the bottom of this dip is, though!

Nice, try, Proselenes. But completely irrelevant.

HI Icemax!
It's an application for a judicial review against a government decision.
The bar for obtaining a JR is high. You need to show compelling evidence that the government has acted against the law.
This suit doesn't - at least from the reporting in the local press, the environmentalists don't seem to have a clear case to make. And - simply - the application is out of time; it should have been made months ago. And its timing is clearly malicious and designed to harass BPC as they conduct their lawful business.
IMO, this application will get thrown out. Might take about a week for the judge to read all the paperwork though.

Hi Chesh!
First, BPC is not going to get served in this matter - the case (as outlined in the press) is between the ecologists and the Bahamas Government. BPC are not a party to it.
I'd be very surprised if there were not an application for a judicial review behind it all. Fred Smith is a QC; it would destroy his legal reputation if he were just bluffing. I think the official notification is travelling slowly to BPC, that's all.
The key step is the next one - a judge will read the application and decide whether there are grounds for a judicial review. The bar is quite high, and reading the press summary makes me think the ecologists are grasping at straws. BUT, judges and courts are unpredictable, and who knows what lies below the waterline.
If the judicial review is granted, expect an application for an injunction as the next step, and (given that a JR is pending) expect it to succeed.
I'd say it would take about a week for a judge to review the JR application and make a decision.

On Twitter, James Campbell is delivering samples for XRF analysis - presumably meaning samples from the kimberlite pipe at Thorny River.
Can anybody with technical knowledge say what this implies?
Is it a step you would only make if you were fairly sure the kimberlite contained diamonds?

HI Daniel!
No, you didn't misread. Remember that the proceeds are gross. Knock about 10% off for the costs of the raise.
Even if you believe the latest **** and bull from Andrew Prelea, there is a clear financial hole here.
Personally, I think this morning's RNS is a prelude to the news that there is no money from the bank at all. We'll see.

Oh, and yes the timing (just before Christmas recess) is designed to be as destructive as possible.

Be careful here about legal processes here - if permission for a judicial review is granted you THEN file for an injunction to halt the drilling until the judicial review is settled. A before B, and all that.
So an injunction is still possible. (Though in my view, not very likely).

Company presentation tomorrow.
Good to see Phoevos beating the publicity drum for Tharisa. He has a a lot of good news to share, and I don't think the market has appreciated yet how well Tharisa have been doing, and how good the outlook is for 2021.

Rhodium has edged upwards to a new all-time high of $16,200/oz (JMAT prices).

Since you're finally discussing grade at Porvenir, yes, less than 0.5% Cu is low grade - especially when you're talking about a deep mine in a frontier jurisdiction (per se, a high cost high risk proposition). There are, in fact, lots of piles of tailings all over the world which have a higher grade than this. And indeed there are lots of old gold tailings with a grade of c. 0.3g/t.
So far, Porvenir is geologically interesting, but not an economic find. But who knows what the new holes may reveal - a high grade core would indeed change the picture.
To anybody even vaguely thinking of investing in VAST or SO4, please take great care! AIM can be a really dangerous place!