Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Vast legally can't issue shares at less than their face value, which is 0.1p.
What odds that if the bank loan doesn't come through soon (and why the silence now?) AP goes for one last placing at 0.1p, to raise as much working capital as he can for BP?
I have to say, if I were Mercuria, I'd be trying very hard to get my loans to Vast paid back as soon as possible.

This share puzzles me.
The last time it traded at this price was June 18th this year, when gold traded at $1,732/ounce.
Since then we've had mostly good news: excellent drilling results, debt paid down, the Dugbe deal, and the Karoussa deal. The only real bad news we've had is that HUM is likely to miss guidance by 5% or so due to the coup, a very bad rainy season, and Covid, which any reasonable person would admit are understandable excuses.
And yet, we seem trapped in a downward trend, even though the gold price has rebounded off its lows of a few weeks ago.
By almost any method you choose to value HUM, it comes out as grossly undervalued. But here we still are!

Well-run, undervalued, and highly profitable miners:
Tharisa (THS) and Sylvania Platinum (SLP);
Very high risk "gamblers' share" that has a reasonable chance of paying off early in 2021:
Botswana Diamonds (BOD).

Montyboz!
You have no idea how much I know about this deposit.
For instance, the metallurgy is extremely difficult. And toxic - Norilsk Nickel find it incredibly difficult to recruit staff to work in the processing plant - the average age of male death in Monchegorsk a few years back was only 50.
If there was money to be made here then Norilsk Nickel would have taken this deposit for themselves by the familiar mixture of administrative and legal measures know in Russian as "raiderstovo". They didn't; that says it all.
As I said, this is the most overpriced natural resources play I have ever seen.

Yes, it's a good day to be in cash - except that if we have a "no deal" Brexit sterling can be expected to drop through the floor. I bought a load of international bonds as insurance. So far they are doing their job. I've also thrown a bit of money at SPLT, the platinum ETF, when Pt slumped this morning. But, all told, it's a bad day all round.
And, yes, I saw that you can buy iridium ingots and rounds. But I'm not keen on 50% or 100% spreads!

Hi Dufry!
The true figure is 2m ounces in a Russian C2 resource, which is roughly equal to JORC "inferred".
15m refers to an "exploration target", which is entirely speculative.
40m is just hot air.
This is the most overpriced resource company I have ever seen. Compare to other platinum-palladium-rhodium companies.

Hi Ragnar!
Rhodium at new high - $16,650 according to JMAT. Platinum and palladium also recovering after that strange flash crash in gold this morning. So fundamentals are still good.
It seems I was right a few weeks back when I said that iridium prices were about to break out. It's just a pity that I couldn't find any way to take proper advantage - no viable bullion market, no ETFs. IMO, iridium can go a long way over the next few years: it's incredibly rare and it has unique applications in hydrogen hydrolysis.

Hi Moop!
In a word - yes.
It's quite an achievement for BPC to drop on news of the well spudding.
But that's the situation that the board have created with this ludicrous finance deal. And that is being nice about it - I could find other adjectives to describe it.

Distribution of shares from the 200p secondary placing? Then, once the shares are flipped onto the market, we move up?

Hi Pianista!
Of course the start of cruising is going to be delayed. In the South-East it looks like we're going to be in Tier 4 lockdown until March or April. Other countries are closing their borders to us.
IMO cruising will now start in the summer, not at the end of March. If everything goes well.

In 415 B.C. the people (well, the free men, not the women and slaves) of Athens voted - perfectly democratically - to invade Sicily and to attack Syracuse. The resulting Sicilian Expedition was an unmitigated disaster, and it set in train a course of events that led to the fall of Athens, the world's first democracy, a decade later.
Just saying that because a decision is made democratically, it doesn't always mean it was a good one...

Hi Scott!
It's not that unusual for a UK company to have a large number of shares in issue - we don't have the prejudice against penny shares that you have in the US. Nobody here says that a share trading at less than $5 is not worth buying, for instance.
The number of shares in issue is really a product of JLP's past and previous failed strategies (many before Leon Coetzer's time). What matters now is the future. Is the company in a good position to make money in the new bull market for PGMs and copper? (IMO, yes). And will there be any further dilution of shareholders? (Hopefully not, the company should be able to finance its own expansion now, perhaps with a little bit of debt thrown in.)

Hi Velo!
To reply or not to reply, that is the question...
I don't want to get into a squabble, but you are seriously under-researched on Tharisa (THS). EPS this year (FY 2021) could be in the region of 70 or 80 US cents, given PGM and chrome prices hold steady and production hits guidance. That's against a current share price of about 100p. There should be a further improvement in EPS (assuming commodity prices hold steady) in FY2022 as the new Vulcan Plant kicks in, resulting in an increase of production to 2m tons of chrome and 200,000 ounces of 6E PGMs.
SLP and THS have very similar numbers of shares in issue - 268m vs. 273m. But THS is simply a bigger operation, with no life of mine concerns, no Samancor dependency, and a clear growth path (expansion in SA, Karo in Zimbabwe). There is no way that SLP's and THS's share prices / market caps should be rated at 1:1, as they were a few weeks back. I believe the ratio should be between 1:1.5 and 1:2.
Don't get me wrong. I'm a long term investor in SLP, and I love the company, and I'm confident that its share price will increase substantially over the next few months.
But, IMO, AIM has mispriced THS horribly, and it is a rock solid buy at its current price.

Is there any way to split this board in two for 2021?
I'm happy to leave one to Quady and friends. I promise never to even glance at it.
Then on the other board we can have a serious discussion about the true value and prospects of Solgold.

Hi Mr. Bond!
Alas, I don't have George Soros's number. I do have several numbers for Al / Boris back from the 80s and 90s, and I'm sure Carrie will tell him first if we're to have a Brexit deal or no deal. But, alas, the numbers are all old. So I'm just guessing like most everybody else.
I take your point about the long term view. But I do care about the short term swings caused by currency movements and commodity prices. No matter how much I believe in a company, if I see it will be 10% cheaper tomorrow, I'll sell it today and buy it back then.

Just about Brexit, I live in Kent and the lorry queues along the A2 and the M20 are getting longer and longer. I wonder if, like the Great Wall of China, they are now visible from space. And absolutely nothing is ready for January 1st - not the planned lorry parks, not the customs checks, nothing. Not that any goods will get across the Channel in the event of a "no deal" Brexit anyway, as it's an open secret that the French fishermen are going to blockade Calais and the other ports with their vessels.
IMO, when all is resolved on Monday (or just possibly a couple of days later) there will be a huge movement in sterling one way or another. I'd guess a spike up to $1.40 if there is deal (that would be a great buying importunity for dollar-earning assets), or a precipitous descent to $1.25 (maybe even $1.20) if "no deal".
This, naturally, will affect Centamin as much as it will any other dollar-earning company. So, Ladies and Gentlemen, please place your bets!

Hi Bangrak!
Good point. I will watch this.

Hi Ragnar!
On the subject of a theoretical takeover bid, surely the only practical way to do it would be to buy out Samancor and SLP at the same time, and to combine them into a single entity? I.e. to create a co-product PGM and chrome miner, rather like Tharisa is at the moment.
But that does raise the question of why you wouldn't just buy out Tharisa instead. Management there have already built up and sold one company (Eland), so they can likely be persuaded to sell another one for the right price.
And God only knows what skeletons are hidden in Samancor's cupboards.

Hi The Truth!
But, in truth, "nobody knows nothing" about this company.
Will there be finance from the bank or not? I don't know.
Will there be another death spiral placing to raise more working capital? I don't know.
Is Baita Plai worth the money Andrew Prelea says it is? I don't know.
Can Vast operate the mine profitably and efficiently? I don't know.
I can't value this company properly, and I don't believe anybody else can. All I know for sure is that the CEO is a barefaced liar with a terrible record for delivery on his promises.
I've got no idea what is a fair price for Vast shares because I've got no idea what truth lies behind this company's facade.

Hi a!
Would that be by the end of 2020 or 2021?
If you mean 2020 I think 150p might be pushing it. If you mean by the end of 2021, I think you're setting your sights far too low. If PGM prices stay roughly where they are, IMO even 200p is lowballing it.