Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Hi Ragnar!
Yes, 2021 has started with a bang - so far so good!
There's a lot of overlap in our holdings, not just THS and SLP. RMM is one of the companies I identified over the New Year as being of interest, and I've bought a few shares this morning. I'm looking at vanadium, and wondering if BMN, FAR, or even IRON will offer the best returns in the long run. I own POLY, HUM, and HOC, and I'm a big admirer or PAF's management, but think it's getting a bit pricey. I have ATYM instead of CAML for copper. I also own a few JLP, but the valuation is getting into sell territory now. My pure "gamble" stock (I allow myself one) is Botswana Diamonds (BOD).
Away from metals, I think AAF (Airtel) is a stock with real long term growth potential.

Platinum through $1,100/oz.
And JMAT are asking $17,300 for an ounce of rhodium this morning.
So a new record high basket price. This well-run highly profitable company is still very cheap based on fundamentals.

Platinum through $1,100/oz, by the way.
And JMAT are asking $17,300 for an ounce of rhodium this morning.
Also, the chrome price recovered slightly to $133/t according to Metal Bulletin. See below:

"China’s UG2 chrome ore price supported by ferro-chrome strength
The UG2 chrome ore price in China rose for a third consecutive week despite an absence of trading activity amid the holiday season after sentiment was boosted by gains in the ferro-chrome market.
Fastmarkets’ chrome ore South Africa UG2 concentrates index, basis 42%, cif China rose to $133 per tonne on Tuesday December 29, up by $1 per tonne (0.8%) from $132 per tonne a week earlier.
There was scant activity in the seaborne market this past week owing to the absence of participants due to the Christmas holiday, while portside prices rose by 1 yuan ($0.15) per dry metric tonne unit (dmtu) to 25.5-26 yuan per dmtu, according to market participants."

Hi Ragnar!
Happy New Year! I spent quite a few hours over the holidays looking for well-run, highly profitable companies trading at very low share prices. I.e.: bargains!
I found a couple of companies which had some interesting features, but still nothing so good as THS and SLP.
In short, I went a big circle just to end up back where I started...

Hi Rupans!
Here's that well-known leftie mouthpiece The Daily Mail on the current situation:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9108533/Keir-Starmer-demands-new-national-lockdown-Boris-Johnson-hints-action.html
If you can't work out the way the wind is blowing from this, then it's you who may need to reconnect with reality.

No, not Scottish or Labour. Just horrified by the sheer incompetence of our current government.
(Though I knew Boris quite well at university, so I really should have expected this disaster. He never could organise anything at all).
Like it or not, things are going to get a lot worse now before they get better, and this will affect Saga's cruising business.

That view would have been stated when?
My guess is before the mutated coronavirus started spreading like wildfire. Just take some time to look at the figures - we're headed towards a full-scale health disaster. We'll have the usual dither, delay, and indecision from our useless government, but once the hospitals simply can't cope they'll announce another full lockdown. Give it a week or two.
There will be tremendous demand for cruising (and holidays in general) once this nightmare is over. But the cold hard fact is, the worst of it is still ahead of us. And the cost of keeping the ships moored up for an extra few months will affect Saga's finances significantly.

It has to be said that bad news is odds on.
If the bank's answer were "yes", it would have already been communicated to Vast, who would have quickly communicated it to the market. The most likely situation at the moment is that the bank have declined, and Vast are sitting on the information, and working out what to do next. A quick raise at 0.1p for as much as possible would seem to be one possibility.
I do wonder how "real" the possibility of a bank loan ever was - Vast are a bad credit risk by anybody's standards, and several of their directors do not pass the "smell" test. I sometimes wonder if the Zimbabwe diamonds were ever a realistic possibility too, and if the story wasn't concocted to sucker PIs into investing into Andrew Prelea's Romanian mine.
In short, "ouch" does seem to be a fair one word summary of the current situation.

Hi Sheltie!
Surely, the lack of sentiment here is because everybody can see the vaccine rollout is slow, and that the new variant coronavirus is going to run riot over the next few weeks. I don't see how cruising (and travel in general) can restart in the spring given current trends. In the summer, maybe. But then again, the incompetence and negligence of our government unfortunately knows no bounds.

Hi Holly!
Thanks for posting that bit from the The Times.
If you have any questions about HUM, just ask. I'm sure somebody on the board knows the answer to most questions.

Hi Mad Stork!
Nail on head.

The fear here must be a return to full lockdown in much of England, which is likely where things are going given the rapid spread of the new variant coronavirus.

And what a load of garbage those Zak Mir recommendations are!
Several of the companies listed are (IMO) extremely strong avoids due to individuals associated with them.
HE1 I'll research in detail now. I just needed to vent about that list!

Sarahlamb!
You are making some dangerous assumptions. It's fairly typical for reopened mines to encounter serious problems and production delays and require extra Capex and working capital. And that is without considering that anything that Andrew Prelea says can not be relied on (liars lie, you know).
IMO, it's likely that Vast will need to raise more money if the bank loan doesn't come through (which IMO it won't now).
Yes, a share consolidation is possible, but it costs. And traditionally they result in a downward rerating of the share concerned, even though the operation (on the surface of it) is purely mathematical.
All in all, this is an ugly situation. Vast's lenders will be pressing very hard to recover as much cash as they can as soon as they can. They will be scared of a bankruptcy situation developing.

I've also taken a small position.
Considering buying more after the H2 update is out. Until then I'll wait and see how this goes.

Hi Addicknt!
Happy New Year to you, as well.
It's truly been an incredible year. The Central Banks have set off raging inflation in financial assets which hasn't yet filtered through to the "real world". So I'm looking at a completely crazy wonderful investment result for this year. Even as millions have lost their jobs and Covid has paralysed the wider economy.
I fear that sooner or later there will be a terrible price to pay for all this money printing. But let's hope I'm wrong.
Best wishes all...
Oh, and Iceberg, you don't need to look further than GGP...

Hi Tbaker!
I don't think you'll find as cheap a gold miner as Hummingbird, considering what it is.
But PAF is an excellent company with strong management. And (IMO) cases can be made for SHG, TSG, and AAZ.
I also think there are possibilities in some of the mid-cap miners like POLY and HOC. RSG looks cheap, but has a terrible record, so I make it an avoid. POG (Russian shenanigans) is also a strong avoid. CEY is in turnaround, and I'd wait until after next quarter's results, which have already been flagged as awful by management, are out.
I hope that helps!
Happy New Year all!

The quotation becomes pretty useless once they share price drops below 0.1p.
They can't raise any money below that level without an expensive reorganisation of the share register.
I think (if no bank money) one last raise for as much working capital as possible at 0.1p, and then they'll leave AIM. They'll still be a public company, it'll just be next to impossible to trade their shares.

It's not just POLY, the share prices of lots of gold miners are struggling today.
Results for Q4 (coming in January) should be good for most of these miners, given the average gold and silver prices over the period. And it's a reasonable expectation that gold prices should rise soon - real interest rates and the dollar are still falling, after all.
I'm thinking this is a buying opportunity...

Hi Bangrak!
Happy New Year!
To save writing a long post, scroll back to the discussion of 8th December on this site.
FWIW, the PGM basket price has risen some more since then, though the chrome price has dropped a bit as well.