Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Tharisa (THS) quarterly update out this morning. As always, it's only production numbers without financials, but if you do a bit of maths you can work out that they are making money hand over fist at these PGM prices (just like their neighbour SLP).
Here's what they say about PGM pricing...
"PGM prices, in particular platinum and rhodium, continued their strong performance for the quarter under review. With Tharisa's prill split favouring rhodium at 9.5%, the Company continues to enjoy a healthy revenue stream from this metal in particular. With platinum now consistently above US$1 000/oz, the overall basket price was favourably set at US$2 399/oz for the quarter, and even with a strengthening currency against the US$, the ZAR prices received per PGM ounce increased to ZAR37 410/oz. Spot PGM basket prices are trading at US$2 996/oz and ZAR46 150/oz."

One small quibble...
There is still no announced ex-dividend date for the 3.5c final dividend announced in the annual results. Last year the ex-dividend date came in February.
There is an argument for buying Tharisa as a dividend share right now. Over the next 13 months I reckon Tharisa should pay out about 13.5c in dividends. That about a 7.8% yield - not bad at all. (Though I still think the capital appreciation argument is a lot stronger than that!)

Yes, I'm happy with that update. Why this company isn' trading at its all-time high share price is something of a mystery to me - things have never been better, surely?
Surprised to see that the chrome price has picked up so strongly in the last couple of weeks.
The one concern here is Covid - even though Tharisa is an open pit mine and it got through the first hard lockdown with relatively little production damage. The SA President spoke to the nation last night, and only announced "enhanced Level Three" restrictions, but who really knows what will happen with the pandemic going forwards?

One obvious error in the article - Hummingbird have a 51% free carry to DFS for Dugbe. It is Pasofino who are earning in their 49% share and have to pay for the new drilling and the DFS. That makes a big difference!

Simon Thompson in Investors Chronicle making a strong case for SLP. His argument is equally true for fellow rhodium producer THS.
www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2021/01/11/three-high-growth-small-cap-plays/

Tesla opened 6% down as we speak - I think following bitcoin down. So far, my wild irresponsible bet on shorting Tesla (via 3STS ETF) this morning is up. At any rate, it beats risking money on the horses.
And, yes, the trouble is that the FANG stocks (and Tesla) are now so big and so overvalued (the top 5 stocks make up something like 22% of the entire value S&P500!) that any return to a more "normal" valuation is almost bound to set off a wave of margin calls and forced liquidations, and so a general market crash.
IMO, a highly profitable cash-generating commodity stock like THS must be about the best stock to be in currently. I'd also say cash wasn't such a bad place as well.
We live in interesting times...

I've taken a small stake now - I think Tesla is topping out.
Obviously, I intend to increase my position here if and when Tesla starts to fall back.
I think we all know that Tesla is wildly overvalued. The trick is getting the timing right...

I'd echo this. There is a crazy idea on this board that taking money from royalty companies (like FN or Wheaton) is cheap. It isn't. They are the payday lenders of the mining industry, and they make huge profits from their deals - at the expense of companies like Solgold.
A JV / farm-in deal with a major would offer far better long-term value for Solgold's shareholders. So would an outright sale of Alpala.

I just noticed the holdings RNS. It's Samancor who have been / are selling, alright.
One possibility is that Samancor simply want to cash in some gains. As a chrome miner they must be feeling considerable financial pressure - UG42 chrome is currently going for only $133/t (Metal Bulletin - Dec. 30th). Samancor are a private company, so it's impossible to know at what price they break-even on chrome production, but $133/t must hurt.

$18,950/oz - JMAT price.
(IMO, the threat of a new SA lockdown and the ever-rising rhodium price are directly linked - 80% of the world's rhodium supply comes from SA.)

$18,950/oz (JMAT price)

Talk of possible Level 4 Covid lockdown in Gauteng in South Africa:
www.thesouthafrican.com/news/will-gauteng-move-to-level-4-of-lockdown/
The last time (open pit miner) Tharisa worked through Level 4 lockdown, but platinum deep miners had production problems. So this may not be bad news for THS, at least...
N.B. Tharisa's operations are in Gauteng Province.

www.thesouthafrican.com/news/will-gauteng-move-to-level-4-of-lockdown/
N.B. SLP's operations (and THS's and JLP's) operations are located in Gauteng Province.

At least Tharisa still has intrinsic value - especially at the current share price!
I get that there is money to be made in momentum plays like Bitcoin and Tesla - at least, until there isn't. But I just can't bring myself to risk capital on something that isn't backed by anything more than speculation. Oh well, my loss, I suppose...

Gold getting smashed at the moment, and (at least temporarily) dragging platinum and palladium down with it.
But rhodium soaring upwards to a new all-time high of $18,850 (JMAT prices).

Not really. The mafia have bigger fish to fry - even in Sicily and Calabria.
And some of the offers are in Tuscany or towards the Alps, where the mafia simply don't venture.
In general, rural Italian property is fantastically cheap. Old castles go for the price of a semi in Basingstoke.

Hi Ragnar!
Thanks for sharing. I'm looking for 40k oz 6E PGM as well from the Q1 results. If THS hit that, I can't see that the share price will drop back any more. Rather, I'd expect it to resume its rise towards £2.
BTW, I underestimated Tesla's P/E in my last post - it's actually nearer 1,500. It's trading at 27.5 times sales revenue! This is pure "greater fool" territory, and it makes me wonder if the entire market isn't nearing a major top.

Hi Sands!
IMO, you've got to assume that Sustainable are selling out completely now. They have already sold so many shares; why stop now?

Lots of remote Italian and Sicilian villages are selling off houses for 1 Euro due to depopulation. You just have to agree to renovate the property. Just Google "houses for one euro". It's a lovely dream for a cold winter's day...

Q1 FY2021 results on Tuesday. Hopefully they should show that production is on track. From there we should be able to estimate roughly how much money Tharisa are currently making (clue: a lot).
Tharisa: P/E less than 3
Tesla: P/E @ 1,200
Who ever said markets were efficient?