Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Heck, no... I've still got a day job, even if "the biz" in question has been marmalized by Covid.
Still, another year like 2020 in investing, and it won't really matter moneywise if I never work again. (But it would be a shame, as I mostly love my job).

Hi Feynzz!
I can't answer all your questions offhand, but here is some background for you:
1. Current guidance for FY2021 155K to 165K oz PGMs. Financial year runs Oct - Set - production on target after Q1. Like with SLP, Prill split strongly favours rhodium (at 9.5%, I think).
2. Tharisa is a bi-product chrome and PGM miner - i.e. it's like SLP and Samancor combined. It owns 76% of the Thrisa mine (26% is a BEE partner). Chrome operations are modern and moderately profitable at current chrome price of $150/t.
3. Tharisa has several key advantages over SLP. Its mine life is much longer, 14 years open pit and 40 years underground. It does not suffer from "Samancor association risk". It has viable plans to expand production via Vulcan Fine Chrome Plant ($50m Capex, currently being built) and via improvements in PGM grades and recoveries (target 200K ounces per year). It has an excellent exploration asset (Karo in Zimbabwe). THS also obtains a higher basket price for its PGM concentrate than SLP - we think because it is less oxidised (not dumps material, but fresh ore).
4. THS has a clear dividend policy - no less that 15% of NPAT. A dividend is upcoming in February.
5. Net debt and cash position is listed in last RNS - it's rapidly evaporating.
6. All in all, THS is simply a larger operation than SLP, so it should have a substantially higher mcap than SLP. I think the mcap ratio should be between 1.5:1 and 2:1. You'll see that currently we are near 1.3:1. IMO, that makes THS the superior investment proposition.
7. None of this should be taken to imply that SLP is a bad investment proposition. It is still an excellent one.

Yes, it's that headline again (again):
Rhodium now $20,600 (JMAT prices).
Here is Reuters on rhodium:
https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-01-13/Rhodium-roars-above-20-000-in-precious-metals-biggest-rally.html

Hi PokerChips!
How wonderfully prophetic the film "Network" seems nowadays. And it was made nearly 50 years ago!
By the way, today's weakness probably linked to:
JPMORGAN CUTS HOCHSCHILD MINING PRICE TARGET TO 215 (265) PENCE - 'NEUTRAL'
I disagree with this assessment, but my opinions don't move markets!

Yes, it's that headline again (again):
Rhodium now $20,600 (JMAT prices).
Here is Reuters on rhodium:
https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-01-13/Rhodium-roars-above-20-000-in-precious-metals-biggest-rally.html

Yes, the recent leap in chrome prices has surprised me (pleasantly). This section of the last RNS (which I think hasn't been edited properly) has been puzzling me:
"While flat quarter on quarter, the chrome market continues to be an important revenue and margin generator for Tharisa. Stainless steel production in China in 2020 was approximately 29.5Mt, an increase of almost 1Mt over 2019. Production is forecast to increase at a rate of 5% to 10% in 2021, with ferrochrome an essential ingredient for the production of stainless steel, demand should increase accordingly. Fortunately for Tharisa, chrome ore demand (and in particular chrome ore concentrates owing to the fact that the Chinese government is phasing out furnaces of 25MvA and less in favour of more efficient and environmentally friendly smelters)."
I think the last sentence is trying to say that Tharisa's specialty chrome products should be in increasing demand due to a change in Chinese regulations, but it's hard to be sure.

Hi Sirius!
I don't want to get into a debate about THS (Tharisa) and SLP, and which is the better buy given their current maps. The truth is, they are the two best buys I know on the market.
But the figures you are quoting are plain wrong. THS is ridiculously profitable and undervalued given the current PGM basket price. You might want to research further.

AJ Bell (youinvest.co.uk) lets you buy and sell this ETF without any problems. Prices are quoted in $ but you deal in £.
There is also a -1x short ETF on Tesla available called STSL.

All I'd say is that the end destination is clear - Tesla will be dramatically revalued downwards sooner or later.
But the timing is tricky indeed. We're dealing with investors who are almost religious in their fervour.

Hi Ragnar!
I think you're on the money as regards timing. As long as the world is still spinning, things should be looking up here by July - the lock-ins will have expired and we should be seeing the positive results of the turnaround plan.
Not expecting much in the near future. This needs patience...

Just a quick question from a beginner here...
When does this go ex-dividend for the special dividend? Tonight or tomorrow night?

Landmark passed - rhodium $20,200/oz today (JMAT prices).

HI ojt333!
Yes, I got that wrong - sorry. The operations are (just) in NW Province, not in Gauteng.
That detail may or may not be of importance if and when the Covid regulations are adjusted by the SA government. At the moment they are sticking with an "enhanced level three", which shouldn't have an impact on production.

Hi Retired Banker!
Thanks - much appreciated.
I agree that THS is a significantly better buy than SLP at current share prices - roughly 98p vs 128p. (And SLP is still at good buy at 98p).
JLP I now consider to be overvalued and I have sold my shares. IMO, the market doesn't seem to be properly factoring in copper execution risk, Zambia political risk, and chrome/PGM security of supply risk. I've probably sold too early, but when JP Morgan was once asked how he became rich, he replied, "I always sold too early." So no regrets.

Hi Tharisa!
Thanks for the clarification.
It might be worth letting sites such as dividenddata.co.uk know your dividend dates - they don't seem to have picked up on it.

Hi ojt333!
There should be an interim dividend declared in May and paid in June, to judge by past "normal" years. If they use their standard dividend calculation formula - i.e. at least 15% of NPAT - it should be a generous one given current PGM prices. It won't be a "special" as such, though, just an ordinary one.

Ex-dividend date 27th February...

Final dividend
“RESOLVED THAT a final cash dividend in the amount of US 3.50 cents per ordinary share is declared for the financial year ending 30 September 2020, such dividend being payable to shareholders registered on the register of members of the Company as of close of business on the record date, being Friday, 26 February 2021.”
Additional information in respect of ordinary resolution number 9
The Board has proposed a final cash dividend of US 3.50 cents per ordinary shares for the financial year ended 30 September 2020.
If approved by shareholders, the recommended final dividend will be paid on Wednesday, 10 March 2021. Shareholders on the
principal Cyprus register will be paid in US dollar, shareholders whose shares are held through Central Securities Depositary
Participants (‘CSDPs’) and brokers and are traded on the JSE will be paid in South African rand (‘ZAR’) and holders of depositary
interests traded on the LSE will be paid in sterling (‘GBP’). The currency equivalents of the dividend will be based on the weighted average of the South African Reserve Bank’s daily rate at approximately 10:30 (UTC +2) on 27 November 2020, being the currency conversion date.

$19,200 / oz - JMAT prices
(All-time highs have become so regular that I get a text predict for the headline as soon as I type in "Rh").

$19,200 / oz - JMAT prices
(All-time highs have become so regular that I get a text verdict for the headline as soon as I type in "Rh").

By the way, South African President Ramaphosa spoke to the nation, and only announced "enhanced level three" Covid restriction measures, which should not affect SLP.
That said, the pandemic is still getting worse in SA. So who knows what the future may bring.