Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Heads up. There is a new story about Vast on *************. I can't read it, because I refuse to pay TW any money. But it looks significant...

Yep, Rambler got hit with some penny stock ramping yesterday. And my stripy tiger's tail got tugged a few times, so I may have bared my teeth.
I own a few shares in RMM (I mean, a few), but I'm not yet convinced of the investment case. I'd like to see signs of a successful turnaround in production before committing serious money to the share. It's also worth noting that Lombard Odier are free to sell their shares from March 18th, and another lock-in ends three months after that. So, all in all, my attitude on RMM is "wait and see".
The commodity / relation trade has come off the boil over the last ten days or so; I think due to a growing awareness that Covid remains a bigger problem than the markets thought / hoped. But I still make industrial and agricultural commodities to be the winning trade for 2021.

Hi Ragnar again!
(Since all is quiet here...)
I wanted to ask, have you ever looked at FXPO? I know the risk of Ukraine is not to be underestimated, but it looks to be a cash machine at the moment.

Hi Ragnar!
I'm glad you didn't put that short on! GME is now over $200 in after hours trading.
IMO, the current market fracas has nothing to do with Gamestop's underlying business (which is failing). Rather, the shorts (mostly held by hedge funds) have gotten over-extended, and are now getting mercilessly squeezed by a wild mob of PIs.
How it ends? If I were a director of Gamestop, I would issue new equity NOW to refinance the business whilst the share price is at these incredible heights. That would benefit the underlying business, and let the shorts exit - at a price.
The times are crazy. IMO, shorting any company - even the worst, in fact, especially the worst - is too risky now.

Hi Mr. Tibbles!
I don't know David Netherway from Adam.
But Aureus was a disaster. It later became Avesoro and delisted from AIM in highly controversial circumstances.
(I wasn't close to any of this. Perhaps some other posters can fill in some more details).

Rhodium down a bit more at $19,000/oz - still a fantastic price. (JMAT prices).
Yesterday I wrote that market could be lazy and inefficient. That was before I started reading the "wallstreetbets" bulletin board on Reddit, which a group of hard core millennials are using to organise a short squeeze against some hedge funds short on a small retailer called Game On (NYSE:GME). After reading it, I'm now convinced that Mr. Market has completely lost his marbles, and needs to be sectioned for his own safety.
We live in strange times.

Hi ReaperG!
You need to research "death spiral" finance, because that's what the Atlas deal is now.
Vast is now on a downward spiral of ever more shares in issue and an ever decreasing share price. Someday, far in the future, Vast might emerge from this nightmare with a working and profitable copper mine. But that won't benefit its current shareholders, who will have been diluted into near oblivion. It will benefit those who buy in once Atlas are done.
I'm sorry for all those invested here.

Hi Mornington!
I'm still positive on RMM today; though perhaps with more awareness of the difficulties of the road ahead after today's RNS.
But if this board is going to degenerate into idiotic penny stock ramping, I think I can give it a miss.

Hi Tones!
As regards a dividend, I'm all for one - a maiden dividend announcement might trigger the rerate that we all think Hummingbird deserves.
But we've been here before, and Dan Betts has made it clear that Hummingbird are a "growth" company (i.e. no dividends to be expected soon).

Lord Investor - can you leave off this inane ramping? It just clogs up the board.
There was a lot in the RNS this morning and not all of it good. It's going to be a big job to turn this mine around.

There really is only one possible conclusion that the Alpala Committee can come to : which is to sell or farm-out the asset to a major. A major has both the easy access to capital and the technical expertise to make a success of this mega-project; Solgold quite obviously do not.
It's extraordinary that Nick Mather could not come to this simple conclusion earlier, and - quite rightly - it has cost him his job. In contrast to much of this board, I thought he was a outstandingly poor CEO.
I don't know whether Solgold shareholders will be informed of the committee's almost inevitable conclusion. I don't know if a formal sale process will be announced to the market, or if all negotiations will be carried on behind a veil of non-disclosure agreements. I also can't predict the exact structure of the deal.
But I'm confident that Solgold will be worth substantially more as a company once a deal for Alpala is done. So roll on that day.

Thanks, again.
IMO, the market isn't predicting that the chrome and PGM prices will hold hands and jump off a cliff tomorrow.
Rather, I think that the ever lazy and inefficient market is simply not paying much attention to Tharisa. And so this crazy undervaluation persists. Maybe the approaching ex-dividend date will wake the market up to the value here. Maybe the Q2 production report. If not, then I'm confident that the numbers reported in the interims due in May will cause a sizeable rerate.

Hi Ragnar!
Thanks very much for sharing your calculation - it's a great "cheat sheet". That's a lot of revenue for a company with THS's mcap!
Just to check, you're quoting PGM basket price net of smelter fees? And chrome price net of what - transport costs?
I assume the premium on the specialty chrome products isn't included and it would add a few extra millions to revenue - though this might not be a huge deal.

Hi Rich!
Thanks. The AAZ tip was just too good not to share. It's not often a mining company gets a windfall like that.
Let's hope HUM can rerate similarly on upcoming news (Yanfolila LOM extension, Karoussa licence, Dugbe progress, quarterlies, 2021 guidance).

Hi RedKnight!
IMO, there will be very little news for the next few weeks, and the share price will drift flat to down. Then, one morning, there will be an RNS announcing that Alpala has either been sold or farmed-out, and the share price will open 50% or more up.
But, until that morning comes, Solgold will be a tough share to hold. IMO, the best thing to do is to lock the shares up in a mental box and forget you own them for a few weeks.

Hi Ragnar!
Any ideas on how to come up with a combined "chrome and PGM" basket price for Tharisa?
The "total weighted commodity price basket" for Tharisa must be at an all-time high, given chrome's recent improvement, surely?

Hi Velo!
Yes, SLP on results day has sometimes behaved very weirdly, even up to 6 months ago. (E.g.: A 20% plunge on opening on good news, followed by a recovery over the next few days to level par and then a rise beyond that). Previously, I've put this down to the market-makers ruthlessly dropping the bid to collect on stop losses. And, to be honest, I've made out like a bandit in the past by piling in at the bottom.
But I'm not sure there hasn't been a regime change in trading SLP since then. The number of daily trades has shot up, and I think the share price has become markedly more stable. So I think those days may be behind us.
BTW, rhodium back at $20,000/oz (JMAT prices), now about 10% off the stratospheric heights it reached a week or so ago. But any price over $15,000 is still flat out wonderful for SLP...

Rhodium trading at a round $20,000/oz this morning (JMAT price) - about 10% off its all time high.
I wonder where it will find its level after the recent rise. Anything over $15,000/oz (even $10,000/oz, really) is superb for Tharisa.

Hi Ripley!
Do you have a link to share? Thanks.

Surely, this is a big red flag.