Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Ian Stalker (Pasofino) has serious connections in the mining business and a track record of success.
Who would support Ian Stalker / Pasofino making a (presumably hostile) takeover bid for Hummingbird, using a mixture of loan money and Pasofino paper?
We wouldn't get much of a takeover premium from this, if any, but we would get some experienced management in here to build shareholder value, and we would get rid of Dan Betts (who is clearly floundering badly).
Tick up if you think this is a good idea!
Basically, I've had enough.

Hi Brucey!
If you just consider HUM in terms of news flow, the next two items should be:
1. Kouroussa mining licence + formal completion of deal - I'm confident the market will take this as a positive (as it should!); and
2. Updated Yanfolila mine plan with increase in resources / reserve and Life of Mine - given the truly excellent drill results from SE, this news should also be welcomed by the market.
So I'd imagine that things should look up from this low point. I do wish Dan Betts would resign; he's just one of those over-entitled rich kids who is being allowed to endlessly "fail upwards". But Hummingbird is far from a lost cause and it is impressively cheap compared to its peers.

So what? If this tranche of the Atlas shares have indeed cleared, that just means the next tranche will be converted soon.
This is what "death spiral" financing is - unrelenting downward pressure on the share price. It results in ever more shares being issued at ever lower share prices.
Until if and when Vast can replace Atlas with a better source of financing, or until Atlas are finished (6 months or so?), Vast is a very poor investment prospect.

Hi Gota!
No, not quite that.
Yes, the mining subsidiary owns 76% of the mining operation. As this is more than 50%, the revenues are reported whole in the group accounts.
Yes, 26% of the profits of the mining subsidiary go to the BEE partners. But, in practice, this is substantially less than 26% of the group's entire profits, as other companies in the group also contribute substantial amounts.

Can you imagine what Ian Stalker could do if he were appointed CEO of Hummingbird?

Maybe treble figures, methinks.
Now financing is completed, this is the day to buy for a long term hold to production...

Sufficiently caffeinated for the day, I've just reread the RNS after my initial brain-fogged reading at 7am.
To be honest, I'm struggling with this. Why is the AISC getting higher and higher? I note they are replacing the contract miner; is that something to do with it? Or what? Yanfolila was planned to be a low-cost operation with an AISC of $695. In reality, it's no such thing. What happens if the gold price drops back down? And why should I believe next year's guidance when HUM's guidance is so regularly missed?
In short, this company would benefit either from a change of top management or from being taken over by a more professional outfit. But neither are in the interests of the current board. And, as for a dividend, we've already been told to forget that.
The one piece of really good news from this RNS is the drill results. I hope the Kouroussa mining licence is granted soon!

Hi Gotabeserius!
I don't remember THS's exact "discount for smelting" percentage off the cuff. But it is substantially less (i.e. better) than SLP's. (Perhaps fresh ore concentrate is easier to smelt than the SLP's oxidised dump material? Perhaps it is simply because THS are a larger volume supplier?)
Rhodium rising at $20,800/oz today (JMAT). Is it going to hit another new high?

Hi Siko!
I hope all is well with you!
No, please do report all of Youssef's comments; we need to hear them.
Sometimes they are inaccurate. Sometimes they are not popular here. This is understood. But all information is good to have.
And, no, I'm sure that nothing written on a humble bulletin board for a FTSE 250 company will affect its share price. Only reddit/wallstreetbets can move the markets!

Rhodium up again at 20,300/oz today (JMAT). To be honest, I suspected January's price action in rhodium may have been a short term spike, but maybe it can hold at these stratospheric highs.
I'm another long term investor in SLP (since 8.2p in my case), and I'm grateful to the company for their amazing performance over the last 4 years or so. I've made more money out of owning SLP than I've made out of any other share. And I still have some shares in the company.
But I also see a brighter future here in Tharisa. Tharisa doesn't depend on Samancor (a somewhat risky proposition given what Samancor is), it also offers exposure to the chrome market (i.e. it offers some diversification), it has excellent organic growth plans, a clear dividend policy, and a much longer life of mine. Above all else, Tharisa is simply very underpriced, both in comparison to SLP (which is still fairly cheap per se), and in comparison to other miners in general. I don't think the market has realised quite how much money Tharisa are making right now, assuming that production continues to be on target. I'm expecting to see a 180p-200p SP when the market wakes up, which at the outside will be when the interims are published in May.

Hi Quady!
If you knew anything about finance, you'd realise that a CFP for Alpala is a near impossibility for Solgold.
As regards loan money, Solgold have no assets or cashflows to pledge as security, no experience of managing and building a mega mine project, and they operate in a frontier jurisdiction. Thus, only a very limited amount of money would be available, at best, and it would come a very high rate of interest (remembering that the payback period is long as well).
A minimum 30% to 40% would need to be raised as equity as well, (to backstop the loans form losses). That new capital would inevitably have to be raised at a very low share price, thus diluting existing shareholders to oblivion.
In short, you are peddling complete twaddle (again). Any person with any knowledge of business knows that the correct course of action is to sell-off / farm-out / JV Alpala, so that a far more powerful and experienced partner can raise the money required on far superior terms. Otherwise the project will simply become unviable.
By the way, thanks for the tip about BP. I see they have just announced almost disastrous results this morning. How is that dividend cover looking now? (If you don't know, it's unsustainable medium term). Really, you couldn't make it up.

And where are those drill results? They were delivered for analysis before Christmas...

Hi Troajan!
No, not EUA. In any circumstances.
Apart from anything else, Tharisa (which has a market cap far smaller than EUA's), has an expiration asset (Karo - 96m oz PGMs) far superior to EUA's much hyped Monchetundra deposit. And Tharisa produces about 155K oz of PGM and a huge quantity of chrome each year as well.
EUA is a perfect example of the inability of AIM to value companies even vaguely properly.
EUA isn't "high risk" - it's financial suicide.

Dear Almighty!
In terms of platinum, I suggest taking a close look at Tharisa (THS), which is the most undervalued stock I currently know of. It's a platinum group metals + chrome miner in South Africa, currently producing record revenues, and the market does not seem to have taken that fact aboard yet.
Another excellent option in Sylvania Platinum (SLP), which produces platinum group metals from old chrome tailings. It is also a fine company, and fairly cheap (but not as cheap as Tharisa).
You will also read chat on these boards about Jubilee Metals (JLP), which is more a mixed bag, and I think a substantially higher risk proposition.
These three (STHS, SLP, and JLP) all have the considerable advantage that they are mining / processing ore which is very high (c. 10%) in rhodium, the rarest and most precious of metals, and which is currently trading near its record high at $20,000/oz.
Of the major PGM miners, my picks would be Sibanye Stillwater and Northam Platinum. Anglo-American do offer some exposure to platinum, but (IMO) it gets lost in the mix of other metals and diamonds.

Rhodium has risen back to $20,000/oz (JMAT prices).
Iridium also up at $4,000/oz (JMAT).
Platinum and palladium catching at tailwind from rocketing silver prices - Pl now $1,112/oz (Kitco).
I can't find a recent price for chrome concentrate, but ferrochrome prices reported to be rocketing.
In short, at a guess, the overall basket price is at a record high, and (barring unknown problems) Tharisa should be making a fortune.
What this share needs is for the market to wake up and pay attention!

Yes, the wait is a hard one.
I think, no leaks from Cornerstone / WI not because they don't know what is going on, but because this time they are in agreement with the course being followed. I.e. Alpala is (somehow) being monetised.
I'm confident that we won't get a deal announcement until after the results of the first round of the Ecuadorian elections. If it's clear then that the remaining two candidates/parties are pro-mining, then maybe then.

Honestly, Quady, say what you like...
I don't mean to be rude, but you really haven't got a clue. LIKE. NOT. A. CLUE.

Hi Noel!
Do not underestimate the power of WallStreetBets. Traditional Wall Street has already made that mistake once.
IMO, WSB is now the most powerful "hedge fund" in the world; albeit one of a new self-organized kind.
If WallStreetBets really goes for a short squeeze on silver, then yes, anything is possible.

I've taken this RNS as a buy signal. It reads like a formal correction insisted on by the lawyers as part of a due diligence process.
The silence from Cornerstone is also deafening - no complaints from them at all. That implies they are happy with whatever is going on behind closed doors, and we know they favour the monetisation of Alpala.
So...

Hi Nimrod!
Those CAGR numbers are scarcely credible, aren't they? But they are true.
I thank the stock market gods that I came across SLP 4 years ago!