Member Info for TigerByTheTail

I've bought back in here as well.
Who knows, the takeover rumours may be correct (they often are). If not, then the Egypt licences (when formalised) should improve sentiment here. And the final dividend isn't that far away as well.
But when, oh when, will we receive any of the many times promised but never delivered West African figures? What on earth is the never-ending delay about?
Finally, I think I may have mentioned this before on here, but it's worth taking a look at rhodium-platinum-palladium-chrome miner Tharisa (THS). IMO, the share price is completely out of kilter with the revenues and profits that the company must currently be generating. Please forgive the wandering off-topic and DYOR as ever!

That headline is back again!
Rhodium at $22,300/oz this morning (JMAT).
Platinum at $1,300/oz as well.

That headline is back again!
Rhodium at $22,300/oz this morning (JMAT).
Platinum at $1,300/oz as well.

Hi Visitor!
My crystal ball (somewhat cracked and cloudy) says that iridium will go to $10,000/oz fairly quickly on the back of hydrogen hype, and that in a few year's time it will be the most precious of all precious metals. By 2030 Elon Musk will announce he is planning to build a spaceship to mine it from an asteroid in space.

Yep, it's crazy.
I'm amazed that the market can be this inefficient - especially when close neighbour and direct competitor SLP's share price is rerating upwards at pace.
Does nobody project forwards a company's numbers anymore?

Hi Sotolo!
I have accounts with AJ Bell. In general, their service is fine. But the moment that there is market turbulence (i.e. the moment when you need them to perform most) you'll find that you can't get any prices or that their site simply crashes. So, beware!
I am getting round to splitting my accounts between two brokers - just to be better safe than sorry. Thinking about ii or HL.

Hi Tricky!
Yes and no.
The cash pile is mostly in rand, so the value of that (in £ or $) will be growing. That's good.
But SLP's production costs are mostly in rand and its revenue in dollars. So that's not so good.

Hippos are dangerous! They kill more people in Africa than lions and snakes and crocodiles combined.
They have a grudge against small boats "invading" their lakes and rivers, and they take a heavy toll of fishermen (and the occasional stray tourist) each year.
I was told this whilst on a small boat on a Kenyan lake.

Rhodium back at $21,900 / oz (JMAT), equalling its all-time high.
Iridium holding at $4,400 / oz, also its all time high. (But I think this will go to $10,000 / oz and beyond in due course, due to its unique properties as a catalyst for green hydrogen manufacture).
Platinum still rising at $1,275 / oz as well (Kitco).

Hi SippTrader!
Yes, CGP and Warren Irwin have been decidedly restrained since the announcement of the PFS delay. They could have criticised Solgold much more harshly - and quite justifiably. It's obvious now quite how arrogant, incompetent, and detached from reality Nick Mather had become. So I can only conclude that CGP are in possession of some inside knowledge which makes them content to bide their time - and that knowledge can only really be about the monetisation of Alpala.
I do wonder about the timeline. Maybe we'll only get an announcement after Nick Mather formally steps down (April 1st), and after the second round of the Ecuador elections (April 11th). I hope sooner, but I'm not sure about that.

Surely, the BoD have to consider monetising Alpala / Cascabel, rather than going for a cheap placing to fund regional exploration?
They could sell Alpala / Cascabel outright, perhaps with a royalty on future production as a deal sweetener. Or they could farm it out to a major with a free carry to production, with an upfront payment to cover near term regional exploration costs as well.
IMO, the BoD should simply let it be known formally, by RNS, that they welcome offers for Alpala / Cascabel. By itself, that would cause the share price to boom. And it would force BHP, Newcrest and others to put their cards on the table.
Nick Mather's strategy was always hopelessly unrealistic. Perhaps it's time, now Solgold have exhausted all possible stupid options, to try the sensible one?

Hi Sands!
I do think Dan Betts (and the FD as well) are not all of the problem here, but a substantial part of it.
People see Dan for what he is - a rich kid English graduate and ex-stockbroker who was helicoptered in by his family to be the CEO of a mining company. Hummingbird is is his plaything. It's rather like the rich kids who pay to drive at the back of the Formula 1 grid treat motor-racing as their plaything. (Eg.: famously, "Crashtor" Maldonado).
In any normal world he would have been sacked for the Bunker Hill disaster. But the BoD is fixed so that he is basically unsackable. So, instead, he goes on failing upwards.
I do wonder how much he really knows (sitting in his plush Mayfair office) about what goes on at the mine in Mali, and how much he really controls things. I think that might explain quite a lot about the runaway costs.
Certainly, I think it's fair to say that the market doesn't take him seriously at all.
I believe that bringing in a trusted, experienced, credible mining CEO (for instance, Ian Stalker) would change the markets perception of Hummingbird very quickly. It might be worth a quick 50% on the share price.
But (IMO) it won't happen.

Hi Gemstar!
I'm not an expert on these things. Is a move like that legal?

Also, here is an analysis of forward PGM supply and demand for the next ten years. It's heavy reading, but very bullish on the outlook for platinum and rhodium (and a bit less so for palladium).
https://www.metalsdaily.com/files/Auctus-PGM-Jan2021-FA.pdf
(Thanks to Ragnar for posting on the THS board).

It's the growing cash pile that worries me!
Sylvania have a problem - albeit one of a kind that most AIM companies would kill to have. They have too much cash.
I agree with running hte company debt-free (not all would). I agree with keeping a reserve "rainy day" fund. But there is no way that Tharisa needs to keep $80m to $100m in cash (invested largely in South African bonds) on its balance sheet. Sylvania Platinum is not a bank, or a bond investment scheme.
So what to do with all this cash? Ideally, I'm looking for them to invest into a new project, which will both expand their production and extend their "Life of Mine". (This might be Volspruit or something else). I believe this is what the market really wants to see.
Another option is to simply pay out the cash in generous dividends. The market won't be against this, but I wonder if this isn't already built into the share price.
I do fear what will happen if SLP announce a smallish special dividend without announcing any growth plans. I think the market may punish this lack of ambition.

Hi Ragnar!
Thanks for posting this report. If this analysis is correct, we are invested in the right place - a rhodium heavy PGM producer (with chrome feeding into a growing market for stainless steel as well).
I'm posting the link again, because IMO this is well worth ploughing through:
https://www.metalsdaily.com/files/Auctus-PGM-Jan2021-FA.pdf

Hi Tones!
You said: "I've said this many times before, it's impossible to find a company that is attractively priced without any teething problems."
I reply: Tharisa - THS. A very well-run platinum group metals and chrome miner. Check it out - it's as underpriced as SLP was a year ago. The market seems to have just missed how much money it must currently be making given its PGM basket is very rhodium heavy.
Please take this post in the spirit this is meant - I don't often suggest looking at other shares.

Hi Beachbum!
No, the shares were at about 140p when the vaccine news broke. They then raced up over the next few days.
I know. I woz ere!

Hi Scooby!
I think the board tells its own story - almost entirely buys except for the odd large round number sale. We simply have a seller who is soaking up all available liquidity.
I'm not saying the chrome export tax ( a really dumb idea, if you ask me) will happen or not. But it's worth remembering two-thirds of Tharisa's revenues come from PGM production.

THS mcap currently £341m; SLP mcap £318m.
With all due respect to SLP, this ratio is quite wrong. At a bare minimum, the THS mcap should be 1.5 times the mcap of SLP. THS is simply a larger operation with better growth prospects and a longer mine life.