Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Rhodium holding steady at $21,800/oz - $100 below its all-time high. (JMAT)
Iridium at a new all-time high - $4,400/oz. (JMAT)
And platinum over $1,200/oz again and at a six-year high.
The current situation here reminds me of some of the flat periods over at SLP in the past, when it was plain obvious (at least, to me) that the share was heavily undervalued, but the combination of a seller and not enough buying interest kept the share price suppressed for far longer than it should have been.

www.kitco.com/news/2021-02-09/Global-palladium-output-fell-7-in-2020-Russia-was-the-biggest-palladium-producer-report.html

www.kitco.com/news/2021-02-09/Global-palladium-output-fell-7-in-2020-Russia-was-the-biggest-palladium-producer-report.html

It's that simple for the flippers (probably brokers) involved in the placing. It's a quick and sure 2-3% profit.
Repeated over and over it is a good business.
IMO, it's just a question of how long it takes for them to finish. Then this should move up.

Hi Rodney!
If a bid of, say, 90p came in, IMO shareholders would be absolute fools to turn it down.
I think 45p to 60p is more realistic for a first bid. Unless a rival bidder emerges (we can hope) I think this will succeed. Look at the current share price!
I'm expecting a bid in the next six weeks or so - now the Ecuador political situation is clear (Arauz will be the next President) and Solgold are directionless, this is the moment for a buyer to make a move.

Come on, Colonel Drake. Tanzania is one of the world's riskiest investment destinations, bar none. And the carve up of Acacia Mining by "The Bulldozer" and Barrick only goes to prove that.
A question for you. Can Shanta get money out of Tanzania or not? I believe the answer is no. And that is why they had to raise equity to fund the Kenya exploration. If I'm right, then HUM has far fewer problems than SHG.

Hi Tones!
That's just my hunch. I work in a highly paranoid and dishonest biz (flicks), so when people aren't crystal clear in their communications, I tend to assume they are deliberately hiding something.
I do agree that everything has its price (except companies about to go bust), and that (by all the usual yardsticks) Hummingbird is seriously cheap.

Hi Ragnar!
I don't think HUM is even a turnaround play yet - it feels to me that we haven't hit rock bottom yet.
The last RNS was exceptionally poor - not only did it contain unexpected bad news (the huge rise in AISC), but it did not explain what was included and excluded in that figure, leaving us to guess exactly how bad the bad news was. Fairly reasonably, the market has assumed the worst.
Note to self: Always remember that good management can't save a hopeless cause, but it can make the most of a moderate opportunity. But bad management can and almost certainly will screw up even a golden one.

I'd agree that this has got "leak" all over it.
(That doesn't necessarily imply insider trading, by the way. There are other ways leaks can happens).
I wonder what the good news is? I'm going for the Thorny River results are good.

They had issues with the TSF when the bridge was washed out. Maybe this is just preventative maintenance. Maybe they didn't plan for the rainy seasons to turn out to be as rainy as they are nowadays, and it needs improvements.
I'm looking at this company again, considering a buy back, because it is now so very cheap.
But I'm struggling with the lack of disclosure. Questions, questions...
Why is the AISC so incredibly high? What is included in the AISC and what is excluded? How much control does the management (Dan Betts, English graduate, former stockbroker, sitting in his Mayfair office) actually exert over the mine operations in Mali? Does DB even understand what has gone wrong? And why can't the BoD see his limitations and bring in a hardened mining CEO?

M-Night!
I'd go for SHOE, not surprisingly.
Cineworld is crippled by debts which carry a very low rating (C+++ I think, from memory). In effect, the bond market is saying that it expects them to go bust. And the bond market is usually a better judge of these things than the stock market!
The other two I haven't looked at.

Hi Ssmith_Trader!
Investing is like a public bus - we don't get to choose our fellow passengers. And you do get all sorts along for the ride.
All I can say about Quady is that it's best to change seats and let him mutter away to himself. He combines cluelessness with utter certainty in his convictions, which is pretty much the definition of irrationality.

Hi JSCapper!
We should receive the drill results from the last drilling at Thorny River (in South Africa) shortly. We know they hit long sections of kimberlite; the question is, is the kimberlite diamondiferous? (IMO, this is likely, but DYOR).
There is also the possibility of developments in Botswana. This is slow-moving, but could be highly significant in the long run.
Finally, there is the possibility that the JV with Vast Resources in Zimbabwe will finally come to something. I'm far from convinced about this!

Hi Scooby!
Yes, there is a divi going ex-dividend at the end of this month - 3.5 US cents. Please check for the exact ex-dividend date.
There should be another divi after the interims in May - potentially quite a large one if THS stick to their policy of no less than 15% of NPAT.

Rhodium flat at $21,800 (JMAT) - $100 off its all-time high. That'll do for me, and I only wish there was a way for THS to lock in this price for as long as possible.
The board is one-way traffic - almost all blue. I wonder who is on the other side of all this buying?

SLP share price responding - as it often does - to a rise in platinum (to $1150/oz).
I think it must be all in the name - Sylvania Platinum. The share price isn't nearly so responsive to rhodium (now $100 off its all-time high at $21,800/oz - JMAT prices), even though rhodium makes up a far bigger proportion of SLP's revenues.
Anyway, all good. At these levels the market is, in effect, pricing in a huge fall in the rhodium price , in particular. Watch it not happen (rhodium's fundamentals are solid), and Sylvania's mcap increase as the market finally realises this.

Hi Antharry!
Sorry! - I can be pretty dense first thing on Monday mornings...

Hi Antharry!
You know that ramp article you posted saying that a diamond deal will be signed next week? Look at the date of it - October 11th 2019!

Hi Zoros!
First, it's obvious from the first round results who the new leader of Ecuador will be - it's Arauz. So that's the new reality we should be factoring in to our investment decisions:
www.ft.com/content/6807cb77-f542-4087-ad09-a85bb0a81d44
For myself, this is as expected. Arauz gets press as "a left wing economist", but he's not a revolutionary. I'd expect an arm wrestle for better loan terms with the IMF (and I hope he wins it), but not a full default. And I'd expect his new government to be pro-mining, as long as the miners show themselves to be responsible stakeholders.

This is the latest on load shedding - things looking better, at least in the short term. Long term, power supply remains a big problem for SA.
www.thesouthafrican.com/news/load-shedding-schedule-sunday-7-february-eskom-how-long-last-for/