Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Hi Drice!
But the situation with Kouroussa is already quite clear, I think.
HUM are waiting for a mining licence from the government of Guinea. This will be the trigger for the completion of the Cassidy deal (technically, they haven't even bought Cassidy out yet).
There has been a bitterly fought election in Guinea, and I guess getting the licence has taken longer than hoped (as almost always).

Hi Montecristo!
Not really, no.
Any finance package for Alpala would have to involve 30% to 40% equity - i.e. massive dilution for existing shareholders, necessarily raised at a very low price. And Solgold are a bad credit risk - no cashflows to pledge, no experience of mine building, frontier jurisdiction. So any loan money that could be raised would be at junk bond interest rates, affecting the project's long term profitability.
Honestly, I thought Nick Mather was talking absolute nonsense when he proposed going it alone. It was never a viable option. He just destroyed his own reputation with his words, hence his removal.
Quady will contradict this post, but trust me, that's how it is in the real world.

There's a fascinating tidbit in the Heraus report, by the way. Heraeus are estimating that only a negligible 25K oz of rhodium are held in ETFs. So we shouldn't be afraid of any sudden outflows from there!
(One of my worries with the gold market, for instance, is a sudden liquidation of the high quantities of investment gold held in ETFs, and a precipitous drop, such as we saw back in 2013.)

Hi Darren!
I think it has got "news blackout whilst a deal is being negotiated" written all over it. And if I'm right, you'll miss out. But I admit that I could be wrong.
12p was a stock market collapse price. Barring another major general market meltdown, I'm confident we won't see that again.

Heraeus PGM market analysis - well worth the read!
www.heraeus.com/media/media/hpm/doc_hpm/precious_metal_update/forecast_1/forecast_2021/Heraeus_Precious_Forecast_2021.pdf
They are estimating that rhodium will trade in a $15,000/oz to a $25,000/oz corridor this year, which I would take in a heartbeat.

Rhodium has turned back up to $19,300/oz this morning (JMAT prices). I'd be delighted if it manages to hold at these heights. Even 3 months up here would be an amazing windfall for Tharisa.
Iridium also going gangbusters, now at $3,900/oz.
SLP Q2 results out today as well. Very healthy profits, even though they are reporting the period before rhodium really took flight.

The drop first thing on results day (after good results) is traditional here.
All I can say is - buy on the dip!

Those are good results. I have no idea why we're down, unless an ii had a pre-arranged plan to sell into the volume.

Strange things happening in the silver market - now up 5% today.
Much talk on Reddit of putting in a short squeeze on SLV ETF - similar to the massive short squeeze engineered on Gamestop (GME).
Gold and PGMs following silver upwards now, but at a more sedate pace.

Strange things happening in the silver market - now up 5% today.
Much talk on Reddit of putting in a short squeeze on SLV ETF - similar to the massive short squeeze engineered on Gamestop (GME).
Gold and PGMs following silver upwards now, but at a more sedate pace.

Hi Retired Banker!
I can't write too much about this. Let's just say I make EUA a strong sell. At any price above zero.
Udachi!

Rhodium holding steady today at $19,000/oz (JMAT prices). And long may it continue at this price!
All mining stocks having a hard time today, but that doesn't alter the fact that Tharisa must be making money hand over fist right now.

This morning's RNS is a strange one.
Crux Research are hardly a well-regarded outfit (and that's being nice), so why bother to reply to their "allegations" in such detail? It's very touchy. Most companies most often would simply ignore such so-called "research". Crux must have hit a sensitive nerve.
I note also that the date for the publication of the PFS has, in effect, been delayed again.
And I note how Cornerstone have fallen silent.
All in all, it makes me think that my basic thesis here may well be right. That is, behind closed doors negotiations are underway for the sale / farm-out of Alpala/Cascabel, and we will hear very little from the company of substance until they are concluded. Then, one fine morning, we will wake up to an RNS announcing a deal and the share price will open 50% higher. That makes this a tough hold until then (no news and a flat to declining share price), but (if I'm right) a lucrative one.
I won't add today, but I'll be adding over the next few weeks on share price weakness.

Hi Velo!
It's a little bit libellous to put in writing if I am wrong.
Suffice to say, if I'm right it wouldn't be good news for EUA's shareholders.

The "joke" was that this heavily promoted Russian palladium explorer, with a Russian C2 resource of 2m ounces and a "target" of 15m more, was at one point worth more than SLP, JLP, and Tharisa combined, with enough mcap left over to buy PAF and HUM as well.
Only on AIM, eh?
Having a mere two decades of experience of business in Russia, I have a theory about what went on with EUA. Time will tell if I'm right.
Anyway, sorry for wandering off topic. Back to SLP - a thoroughly reliable and undervalued debt free cash rich PGM producer.

Hi Stoodio!
Talking of instant 50% drops, that's what EUA has just gone and done. (RNS on key insider selling shares).
I mean, it had to happen. And, IMO, the drop still has some considerable way to go before the shares reconnect with their fundamental value (I think it is about 3p). But still, I'm sorry so many people have lost so much money, even if they were foolish and naive.

The EUA bubble seems to have just popped - it's down 40% in a matter of minutes as one of the key insiders has dumped his shares.
This isn't exactly unexpected - how else could that story end. But I'm still sorry for everybody's losses.

Tharisa is my largest holding as well - by a decent margin.
But you can't invest in only one stock, so the search for other opportunities continues.
I hope I'm wrong about the share flatlining until May. It just needs jolting into life somehow.
As regards commodity plays, IMO phosphates (for fertilisers) are an interesting long term opportunity, but I haven't yet managed to identify a really good vehicle for that play.

IMO, the only conceivable reason for SLP to drop by 50% is a major market crash, like back in March last year.
In a crash everything gets sold - the good and the bad - due to margin calls and forced liquidations. The last time round SLP dropped from around 65p to around 27p, so, yes, you don't need to get stoned to imagine that happening again.
Last time round I didn't own a single share when the crash hit. But I don't think I'll get so lucky twice.

That's share p r o p h e t s...