Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Hi Ragnar!
Even without the Africa Asia shareholding, I don't think SLP could ever get taken over without a green light from Samancor. The relationship between Samancor (the host miner) and SLP is just too critical. And it's not just a question of the legal transferability of the contract, but also the goodwill required to make the partnership work.
I've always wondered why Samancor haven't ever tried to buy out SLP. But they didn't do it when SLP was cheap, so I figure they won't try a buyout now SLP is, I won't say expensive, but a little more reasonably priced.

Hi Quady!
I've read plenty of your posts. We agree on nothing. To be honest, I don't think you have a clue about business.

Hi Dlwright!
Yes, IMO the most likely outcome is now a hostile takeover bid from BHP and / or Newcrest. (I have an idea that BHP will buy out Newcrest and Cornerstone and bid on their own, but that's only a hunch). Give it six weeks to materialise.
It's possible that, if Nick Mather changes direction fast, he can agree a farm-out of Alpala to BHP / Newcrest. This would be a better result for current shareholders of Solgold, and why it hasn't been done already is beyond me.
There is also the possibility that the Chinese / Barrick make a bid. Of course a bidding war would be the best result of all, but they don't happen very often.

Hi Addicknt!
It seems we have a lot in common. I have also run a PLC (equivalent) with major shareholders (actually, brothers) at war with each other. It didn't end well, of course. A divided house always falls.
In reality, we both know that Nick Mather either needs to step down or to change course. The Chairman should make this clear to him if he can't see this himself.
Yesterday wasn't the end of something, as so many posters seem to believe on here. It was the beginning of something. I'd expect BHP and Newcrest to move quickly now; the longer they delay the worse their position becomes.

Haven't Africa Asia been around for ages as a major shareholder - even if they haven't filed any TR-1s?
On the company website they are listed as owning 21.06%, so they may actually have trimmed their position.
I've always wondered, are they linked with Samancor?

Sustainable Capital selling 1% doesn't really explain much at all.
I've been keeping an eye on the book over the last few weeks, and far more has passed through in large round number sales. For instance, on the day of the last production update RNS there were 3.5m shares sold after the close of play; by itself that's 1% of the company.
So who else has been selling down hard over the last quarter? And where is their TR-1?

Hi Colonel!
I'm meant to take that seriously?!?

Hi Lafitte!
BHP and Newcrest's shareholdings are wasting assets because if they do nothing they will be gradually diluted down and lose influence. They need to act now.
They've got three choices. Either sell up and go away, or force a JV for Alpala with a cowed Solgold board, or make a hostile bid. And I don't think for a moment BHP for one are going to sell up.

By the way, I should add that (IMO) SOLG is a slam dunk "buy" now.
BHP / Newcrest can't leave this the way it is. Either they sell their shares (and to whom, if not to another major who wants Alpala for themselves?), or they make a move on Solgold.
As things are their holdings in Solgold are wasting assets. This is the moment they must seize.

A CEO can't run a company knowing that 3 major shareholders are against him. It's unworkable. This isn't politics, where 51% is total victory. It's business, you need a consensus.
If Nick Mather as much as sneezes, his opponents will call an EGM to oust him. And this time they will make sure they exercise enough warrants / buy enough shares / enlist enough allies to get what they want.
In truth, the Chairman should step in and explain this to Nick Mather if he doesn't already understand it. He has only two options: change course or resign.
In short, I expect either an agreed farm-out of Alpala in a JV or a hostile takeover bid in the nearest future. If we're lucky, we'll get a bidding war.

Hi DartFrog!
Technically, you're right. We don't know who voted against Nick Mather.
But given the Bloomberg article yesterday as well? I'd say it was highly likely!

Hi The Rouge!
Yep, that would be normal. But then, normally, the CEO doesn't leave the meeting with 45% of shareholders against him!

Hi Addicknt!
Agree.
It's possible the Chairman will act and push Nick Mather out now, maybe after a face saving interval of a month or two. The situation is unworkable.
Solgold (or possibly Alpala only) is "on sale" now, as surely as if it had a giant sign hanging over it. It's just a question of price.

For complete different reasons to the majority of posters on here, I've come to the conclusion that this is a "buy", with a target of 60p over the next three months.

Hi Rcgl2!
That's exactly the conclusion I would draw.
Just think of the power Blackrock now wield as the swing voter here!

You can't run a company with major shareholders against you like this - it's obvious that BHP, Cornerstone and Newcrest want Nick Mather gone.
Yes, one major shareholder against you is manageable. This situation isn't.
It's not a question of having a bare majority - it's not politics. You need a consensus.

45% against has to mean resignation in due course. It's untenable.
I speak as a former CEO, by the way!

Mr. Tibbles!
Since it seems timely, just to say thanks for all your posts over the years with the insights of the Man on the Train. They've been very valuable, at least to me!

H-hi!
We'll get a weaker pound - sooner or later.
Sooner if there is no Brexit deal. Expect a plunge to $1.20 to $1.25.
Later if there is a deal. First, we'll get a spike up on the news, and then over the next few months we'll get a slow grinding down as the market realises how deep the recession is here, and also as the almost inevitable row over Scottish independence develops.
Personally, I'd be careful what you wish for. Yes, a weaker pound is great for we holders of dollar-earning shares like Centamin. But it might not be so great for us and everybody else in lots and lots of other ways!

Hi The Italian!
It's Bloomberg. The article will have been sourced properly and checked by an editor before publication. Bloomberg have a reputation to keep as a reliable purveyor of business news .
It's not a surprise that Cornerstone are unhappy with Nick Mather. What was a surprise to me is that BHP were willing to come out in public (albeit anonymously) against him. Anyway, tomorrow is a new day - and it should be an interesting one for Solgold!