Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Hi 2Goals!
I'm not a huge fan of share buybacks, in general.
But, yes, this would a special case. Where are HUM going to find a better low-risk return on their capital than by buying back the outstanding SC shares?

Grade is king. First rule of mining.

Grade is king. First rule of mining.

Hi Ragnar!
It's been NT to buy for ages now with my broker (AJ Bell) - even for tiny amounts.
But they are happy to offer 89.5p for decent amounts of shares.

IMO...
If this one core is as good as it gets, then this is not a commercial discovery - let alone a Tier 1 mine.
But it is worth drilling further holes to see if there is a high grade core to be found. Jury out on that.

Gold now at $1,860/oz but HUM isn't responding, and the misprice here just gets bigger.
Looking at the book, it's almost all buys (including one of 500,000 shares). I can only presume our seller is still unloading. How much more to go?
I've added a few at 28.9p. Waiting and watching to see if the SP goes even lower.

Hi Scoobydoo!
All are good investments, IMO, and all offer strong exposure to the booming rhodium price as they are processing UG2 ore, which is particularly rich in rhodium. This is how I'd summarise them:
THS is a well-run PGM / chrome open pit miner with long life of mine, good growth potential, and excellent fundamentals. Also, the stock has not really rerated yet even though the business is going really well. So it wins out on potential price growth.
SLP produces PGMs from tailings and run of mine material from chrome miner Samancor. Well-run, debt-free cash-rich, excellent fundamentals and stock (though it has risen) is still cheap. If you want to pick holes in the case for SLP you'd note that the life of mine is quite short (8 years or so), that they are very much dependent on Samancor, and that they haven't yet outlined a convincing growth strategy.
JLP is more of a mixed bag. It produces chrome and PGMs from ore / tailings in SA, and also it has an ambitious plan to produce copper from tailings in Zambia. Buying JLP shares you are more buying the hope of growth than the reality of big profits today. Risks are higher here: execution and political risk in Zambia, corporate governance risk (Chairman is Colin Bird!), and risks relating to their chrome ore suppliers in SA.
Full disclosure: I own THS and SLP shares.

Platinum on a tear - over $1,050 now and through resistance.

Hi 799!
I remember the Riva! It was derived from a Soviet army jeep, wasn't it? A friend of mine had a red one in the early 90s; 4x4 personal transport was pretty cool back then, even when the suspension was bone-shattering.
Thanks for the offer, but sadly far away from Norfolk.
Now we really are off-topic!

Hi RetiredBanker!
I agree that SLP is a brilliant company, and that it is still undervalued by the market. (JLP is a more complex direct comparison, due to their copper assets.)
But there is no way that SLP should be trading at the same market cap as Tharisa. Tharisa is simply a much bigger operation with a much longer mine life, and with a big potential exploration upside as well (see Karo). I think its mcap should be 1.5x to 2x that of SLP.
Congrats on making money on EUA. I'll leave that alone now. But you should know that I speak fluent Russian, ran a business in Russia for 20 years, know how Russian courts work, know the top management of Norilsk Nickel very well (na ti - they've got an amazing yacht), and that I've been to that desolate hellhole NN company town called Monchegorsk, and know that the metallurgy of the deposit is very difficult. $1.15bn for 2m ounces of palladium-platinum and the prospect of some more, possibly, to be found??!? Come on, both JLP and Tharisa have better exploration assets, (which are valued at precisely zero in their share price).

The only explanation for these extraordinary measures is that NM knows that a strong coalition has formed against him.
IMO, it has to be Cornerstone + Newcrest + BHP.
Why else make such a huge effort to secure PI votes?

Results usually come out at the end of the month following the end of the quarter - so around the end of January.
I first invested here at 8.2p, so I now officially have my first (and probably only ever) ten bagger!
Huge thanks to Terry, Jacoo and all employees of SLP!

Hi Cornamaddy!
Thanks for posting that. That's the most reasonable explanation I've heard for the share price's strange lack of movement.

Hi 799Boy!
It's up to you, but if I were you, I'd sell asap.
There's no upside to a company whose assets are worth about $50m (on a good day) but whose mcap is over £1.1bn.

Hi HighAndDry!
IMO, Eurasia is just a particularly weird example of collective mania and hysteria.
It's humbling because I have made a really good portfolio wide profit this year. And there's a lot of hard work behind that. But if I had just closed my eyes and stuffed all the money in Eurasia, I would have made far more. Even though - by any objective analysis - Eurasia is worth only a tiny fraction of its current market cap.
Life, eh?
Meanwhile, platinum is still rising, the PGM basket price here is at a record high, and Tharisa should be absolutely coining it. If you just straight line Tharisa's guided production for this year against the current basket price and assume production costs and exchange rates will be the same as last year, you get the most amazing number.

Hi Uddin!
Why on earth would the share price crash below the discounted 200p price that Mr. Hochschild's shares have been sold at?!?
I can imagine that there may be some institutions that have bought shares today with the intent to sell for a quick 5%-10% profit, so there may be sellers in the 210p to 220p range. We'll see about that.
But nobody is going to sell at a loss!
But d

Hi Sotolo!
(Apologies, off topic for HOC)
This is going to sound harsh, but after yesterday I now regard Centamin as a strong avoid for at least the next six months.
200p + for Centamin we can now see (with hindisght) to have been a false price based on false information. We were lied to by the old BOD, many of whom are still in place and who should be removed (but won't be, of course). Martin Horgan has been brought in so that they can claim they are turning over a fresh leaf. Really? The Capital Drilling contract stinks of chumocracy and financial manipulation. So does the announcement of forward dividends when it is clear that much of the cash pile will be eaten up by the Capex required for mine remediation. The West African exploration seems to have been money wasted as well.
I suspect the market will now derate Centamin down to a much lower P/E. I agree with that - behave like an AIM single mine African miner and you should get rated like one. I think a long term P/E of 8 would be about right.
Simply put, there are far better single mine gold miners out there, and at more attractive valuations.
The best hope is that Martin Horgan cleans up the mess that Pardey and Joseph have left behind them and Centamin gets brought out by a major. But betting on a takeover isn't a good investment strategy.

Given up on the share price for now. How the Sekaka news and then the Thorny River news hasn't moved it is beyond me.
But I'm still amazed by the technical feat of finding a kimberlite blow no bigger than a back lawn and concealed by rock cover in a vast expanse of open bush. You've just got to admire that.

I almost bought some HOC yesterday (before the RNS) on the back of the improving gold price. (Silver, I think, will do particularly well with Biden in the White House).
Yes, the RNS is a big insider sale, but I'll take the discount on offer.

Hi Fifokid!
Can you try and be vaguely accurate with your posts?
Director dealing - 4th Fed 2020, Stephen Betts; 4th March 2020, Dan Betts.
Also, do I understand you're holding Centamin up as an example of good management? That would be the company whose share price has been cut in half over the last few weeks not due to a Covid outbreak, but due to high-grading and plain bad management?
As for anon's efficient markets theory, no, I don't believe that markets always value companies correctly. Especially on AIM. To give you a particularly blatant example of a misprice, I give you EUA, a Russian palladium explorer whose mcap is currently an almost unbelievable £1.15bn. A lot of people are going to lose a lot of money on that one.