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I was hoping for an RNS this morning with details of the exploration concessions that Centamin has apparently won.
But, sadly, no.
I wonder now if we won't have to wait until the 2nd December and the Life of Asset review...

I've always loved that scene in heist movies where the lead robber loads about twenty gold "bricks" into a canvas bag, hoists it over their shoulder, and strides off. In reality, the handles of the bag would break, even if the thief could hoist so much weight in the first place. People forget gold is 1.5 times the weight of lead - just like tungsten.

Hi Ragnar!
The EPS announcement due (thanks to JSE rules) next week should do it, IMO.

Hi Choppie!
I don't think the airstrip is big enough news for an RNS on its own.
Completion will probably be confirmed in the next quarterly report.

Well, somebody knows something... share price 115p and climbing.

Hi Siko!
Thanks for the posts as always. Any idea of what blocks of land Centamin actually won?

Talks with Egypt's Sawiris over Shalateen mining have halted - minister
By Reuters Staff
1 MIN READ

CAIRO, Nov 19 (Reuters) - Negotiations with Egyptian businessman Naguib Sawiris over his bid for a stake in the state-owned Shalateen mining company have halted, Egypt’s petroleum minister said on Thursday.

Sawiris chairs private gold mining group La Mancha and said in February that he was holding talks to acquire a 51% stake in Shalateen.

No idea if this affects HUM or not...
www.nasdaq.com/articles/mali-gold-mine-workers-to-go-on-72-hour-strike-2020-11-17

CAIRO (Reuters) - Egypt has awarded 82 exploration blocks to 11 companies in an international bid round for mineral exploration, Petroleum Minister Tarek El Molla said on Thursday.

Among the companies awarded concessions were Australia's Centamin CEY.L, Canadian companies B2Gold BTO.TO, Barrick Gold, Lotus Gold, Red Sea resources and Britain's AKH Gold.

Hi Your Eminence!
Yes, you're right, the Karoussa deal is steal waiting on the mining licence from Guinea, which should trigger its formal completion and the issue of the new shares.
But the wider point stands. HUM must now be the cheapest 100K gold producer out there - surely?
As for Dugbe, Pasonfino's mcap is £28.5m for 49% and they have to pay for all the work up to DFS (let's say $25m in costs?). So how much more value should we allow for HUM's 51% stake with a free carry to DFS? The comparative value of Dugbe to Hummingbird should probably be nearer £40m than £30m. But I'd bet not a single dollar of that value is in HUM's price right now.
I guess it just shows how a really big persistent seller can push the mcap of an AIM company down and down. I remember buying Shanta Gold at 4.5p when Capital & Finance were selling out. That wasn't a bad purchase!

Hi Mr. Tibbles!
I think the thing to do with the law case is to place it in the Cairo Museum, along with all the other dusty relics of antiquity. They could wrap up a couple of judges in bandages and exhibit them alongside as mummies...

Hi Lynny!
These three blocks were withdrawn from the bid round for reasons unknown mid-way through the process.
They are close to Sukhari and have old Pharaonic/Roman gold mine workings on them - i.e. they are probably highly prospective.
We don't know why they were withdrawn from the bidding process.
Personally, I am hoping that they somehow end up being awarded to Centamin, perhaps as an expansion to Centamin's existing mining concession and under the same terms as that. I guess we'll find out tomorrow!

Pasofino's market cap is now £28.5m (equivalent in CAD), reflecting the perceived value of the 49% of Dugbe that they are earning in. Presumably, HUM's 51% share of Dugbe should be worth no less than that!
HUM's total market cap is now £114m, and it's safe to say they must be now net debt free. So, £114m - £28.5m = £85.5m for Yanfolila, Karoussa, and the other assets?
By the looks of it Sustainable are still pushing the share price down as they sell out, but the value proposition here is more than a bit crazy!

Hi Sotolo!
To be pedantic, a proper "death cross" is the 50dma dropping beneath the 200dma, not the 100dma. That said, I don't really do technicals. I much prefer crystal balls and voodoo. Also one room in my house is one hour ahead of the clock, which I find useful for short-term trading purposes...
As for the Life of Asset review coming December 2nd, I'm not sure whether to dread it or to be hopeful. Is all the bad news out and in the price? You'd hope so. But I'm not sure. I fear a downward restatement of the pit resource. I hope for good news about new approaches to mining the existing gold more efficiently, about the step-out drilling, and about new Egyptian licences.
FWIW, I'm convinced Centamin will get taken over if management can't improve the share price in short order. A 50% drop in 2 months against a basically stable gold price is catastrophic, and can't go on. My prime candidates for a takeover are Barrick or B2Gold.
As for the bigger picture, right now the market is looking through the present and concentrating on the hope of vaccines restoring life to normality in a few months' time. But an enormous amount of economic damage (especially to small businesses) has already been done, and the markets are ignoring this. And huge amounts of new QE will be required if central banks are to keep down long term interest rates, which they simply must, given the volume of debt we have now built up as a society. So, in the medium term (if not the shortest term) gold should be well supported through 2021.
All in all, I'm not sure if this is the absolute bottom for CEY. But it must be near. When all else is said and done, Sukhari is still one of the world's best ore bodies.

I may be imagining things, but I think the constant downward pressure has come off the share price...

Hi Perroverde!
Of one thing I think we can be confident - the Marsfontein blow alone did not produce all those kimberlite dykes that criss-cross the two properties. There must be other blows - presumably covered by overburden. The question is can the state of the art technology that BOD are using find them? My money is on "yes", but I admit that's a bit of a gamble.

https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-11-17/Platinum-market-to-see-more-than-1-million-ounce-deficit-in-2020-World-Platinum-Council.html

This is the usual conflict between Kitco prices (always the lowest) and (presumably) JMAT prices (always the highest). I think JMAT prices are "ask" prices, and maybe large buyers get a discount as well.
Rhodium is an opaque market. But, anyway you slice it, this incredibly rare metal is at all time highs.

Hi Pecten!
I'd guess so - but I don't know for sure. The technology they are using can only "look through" fairly shallow ground cover.
I'd think results (at least visuals for kimberlite) over the next 2-6 weeks.

Drilling commences on Thorny River and Marsfontein



Botswana Diamonds ('BOD'), the AIM and BSE listed diamond explorer, is pleased to announce that drilling has commenced on its Thorny River and Marsfontein project areas in South Africa.



The multi-hole drilling programme has commenced on four target areas identified as high interest in the recent detailed ground geophysics survey. These target areas include a potential kimberlite "blow" of up to 0.25Ha in extent, and other expansions in the widths (or "swells") of the dyke system of up to 10m (as opposed to the average 1m).



The most widely known blow in the project area is Marsfontein, which was 0.4Ha. Marsfontein was mined by De Beers and SouthernEra and it achieved a return of development capital in under four days. The dyke system, which extends for 18km over Thorny River from Klipspringer Mine in the west through Marsfontein to Doornrivier in the east, has been demonstrated as having consistent geology and economics. The ground geophysics and drilling programmes are focused on identifying kimberlite volumes to support further development of the property.