Member Info for TigerByTheTail

For comparison purposes...
SLP first quarter results out. IMO, stellar. Very high PGM basket price, and 70% conversion of revenue to EBITDA.

I respect Shoe Zone's management, but these are not good results. And they take away any hope of a fairly quick rebound - no divis to 2024 / 2025!
The Chairman's point about business rates is well made. I despair of the High Street - if it's as bad as this for Shoe Zone, then other companies will be going to the wall.

And I was worried that my $19m estimated profit for this quarter was a bit optimistic!
Congratulations to all at SLP for stellar results.

Quick conversion of figures in RNS...
It's about 209k ounces of gold in C1 and C2 categories and 74K ounces of gold in P1.
I'd say this was encouraging, without being game-changing.
As for the war, it appears the Azeris are still making progress. There are reports of fighting and shelling in the region of Lachin. If the Azeris took that, then they would cut off Stepanakert, the "capital" of Nagorno Karabakh, from Armenia proper.

That's just it.
Yes, the RNS has both good things and bad things in it.
But a £140 mcap for a net debt free gold mine producing 110,000 ounces + per year, with a clear pathway to more than doubling that? When gold is at $1900 per ounce?
Nope. That's out of kilter.

Hi Ricky!
Yep, that's the stock market for you. Everybody has their own opinion!

I think a strong RNS.
Basically net debt free (OK, minus $1m) if you count gold inventory.
Production lowish at Yanfolila, and costs high due to wet season disruption, the coup, and Covid. But balanced out by the very high achieved gold price.
Really excellent drill results from both Sanioumale East and West. Add them together with the previously released drill results and they should lead to a big increase in resource.
Progress being made at Dugbe.
Kouroussa on track, waiting for mining licence, which should come soon now the elections are over in Guinea.

The Azeris are claiming to have taken Qubadli as well.
en.trend.az/azerbaijan/politics/3323488.html
If that's true, then the Armenians are in big trouble on the ground. Their southern flank must have collapsed completely, and the Azeris are now threatening the critical line of supply between Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh (the Lichin corridor that runs from Armenia through Shusha to Stepanakert).
It may be that this is indeed the end of the fighting. Having effectively won militarily, the Azeris should now be able to cement their victory in the inevitable negotiations.

Hi Cowichan!
IMO, all the bad news should be out and "in the price" now. The last RNS was the famous "kitchen sinking."
My guess is that the presentation on December 2nd is designed to show how Centamin are going to tackle their current problems and improve their operations. As such, it should be a "good news" event.
Or so I hope!

Hi Prof!
The Endeavour offer for Centamin was an all share offer. It was something like 1 Centamin share = 0.08 Endeavour shares (approx., from memory).
Back in December / January that was equivalent to a "no premium" cash offer. Not so attractive.
If Endeavour made the same offer today it would be worth about 172p cash equivalent, a 30% premium or so. That would be much more attractive.
Compared to most other gold miners (not just Endeavour), Centamin has simply become a whole lot cheaper over the last few months. Given that Centamin still controls a world class resource, has first mover advantage in Egypt, and has no debts and a huge cash pile, it must be a tempting takeover target to its rivals.
So I'm not sure that Centamin can keep its independence for long. I'm not even sure that it should.

Hi JAdam!
Who knows? Basically, it's what the major shareholders will accept. They may have simply had enough.
Endeavour failed with a nil premium all share merger/takeover bid in January. That bid, if repeated exactly today, would carry about a 30% premium due to the movements since then in the two companies' share prices. That might be enough now.
If so, the board have only got themselves to blame. They tolerated way too much complacency and mismanagement in Egypt.
And as for West Africa, who really knows what they have been spending so much money on for so long?

Hi Prof!
I share your feelings on this one.
I welcome Martin Hogan and wish him well, but I do wonder if his appointment hasn't come too late to save Centamin as an independent company. It's clear now that the mine was in a far worse state than I ever imagined during the latter days of Pardey's rule and the interregnum. And now the time has come to pay for the lack of stripping, the high-grading, the over-steep pit walls, and indeed the lack of spare parts and whatever else it was that crippled the underground production previously. It beggars belief that Centamin left themselves so little optionality in the pit that they will have to partially rely on low grade stockpiled material this quarter. But that's how it is.
The gold is still there - the orebody is still one of the world's best. But how can Centamin resist a takeover bid now?

Some details of SA proposed chrome export tax:
https://uk.reuters.com/article/safrica-chrome/south-africas-cabinet-approves-export-tax-on-chrome-ore-idUKL8N2HD30Y
https://www.sowetanlive.co.za/business/2020-10-23-chrome-ore-producers-criticise-proposed-export-tax/

The big news to come (IMO) is the grant of the mining licence for Kouroussa by the government of Guinea, which triggers the whole deal to formally complete.
Once the deal is completed, I think some of Kouroussa's value will begin to seep into HUM's share price as the analysts work through the numbers.
At the moment I think HUM is valued on Yanfolila alone. Nothing for Kouroussa. Nothing for Dugbe. Nothing for Cora.Hopefully that will begin to change.

Hi Ragnar!
Thanks for sharing.
One thing I don't understand is why Metals Bulletin and others are saying that Chinese demand for chromite for stainless steel has dropped, even as its demand for other basic commodities is healthy. You'd think that stainless steel demand would go up and down linearly with the economy. Is there some shift to using other products (plastics?) in its stead?
We know (anecdotally if not statistically) that a lot of chromite supply has been cut back. But so far it seems to be having no effect on prices. In truth, I'm a bit lost on this.
By the way, do you think there is a weird feedback loop between low chrome prices and high rhodium prices? So much of the world's rhodium comes from mining the UG-2 Bushveld reef, which is particularly rich in minor PGMs. And so much of that production is tied up in some way with chromite mining. Have the cutbacks in chrome production led to a decrease in rhodium production as well, thus worsening the Rh deficit? In other words, are we gaining back on the swings what we lost on the roundabout?

I'll go back to sleep here now. I don't want to get caught up in the short term ups and downs of this share.
I've resolved to hold this company for years, enjoying the dividends (5% yield and progressive) and waiting for the growth story that will surely come from being one of the leaders in African mobile comms.

Results look solid to me as well.
Not sure why the share price has opened down. Possibly due to the headline EPS being down, and not reading the notes.

Hi Marmot!
I agree with every word of your post. Especially this bit:
"The time for more studies, deliberation is ending. The market and the share price drubbing is telling us that."
In fact, I wonder if it isn't already too late. If a halfway decent new offer comes in, from Endeavour or whoever, I would expect the major shareholders to accept it gladly. They must be as frustrated with the company's performance as we PIs are.
I "met" this share at 127p nearly 4 years ago. Here we are back there again (almost), despite gold being at $1900/ounce. It's farcical.

I'd also like to add more in the 50s. Amazingly.
But perhaps we should be careful what we wish for.
IMO, the most likely way we'll see the 50s here again is if the whole stock market crashes, like back in March. Not a good thought, that.

Hi Working Stiff!
I don't invest in Russia as a rule. (I occasionally dabble shortish term in Poly and TSG, but always with an awareness of the risks involved).
Fluent Russian and 25 years working in the Wild East has taught me way too much about these things. It's not the crime itself, it's who is doing the investigating that is the big red flag here. To give you an idea, there are only probably a couple of dozen oligarchs or Kremlin figures who have the power to launch such a legal attack. As for not being able to do it to large scale Western investors, yeah, sure, Hermitage Capital.
For those who think this is tripe, good luck with your investments.I've not got a dog in this fight, so I'll leave you to it now.