Member Info for TigerByTheTail

https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-10-19/Green-hydrogen-energy-could-spark-a-new-rally-in-platinum-WPIC.html

I assume the seller is FIL (Fidelity), since they are reducing their stake here.
No idea who the buyer is.

CEO John Wellborn sacked - no tears for him.
But just ahead of quarterlies as well, which makes me think there may be bad news on its way.

According to the website, quarterly report should come in on the 30th October; though it is to be noted that the last quarterly was delivered 3 days before the announced date. I'm expecting a bumper profit of around $19m for Q1 2020-2021.
Dividend of 1.6p also due 30th October.

I'm confident that any US stimulus will only arrive after the election.
Why on earth should the Democrats agree now and give Trump a present to brag about before the election?
In the medium term I believe that gold will rise strongly, partly on the back of US easy money policies. But I think the next few weeks may be choppy, possibly even stormy.

Boris currently saying that we are headed for a "no deal" Brexit, though he is leaving the door open for further talks.
Pound has dropped in response (and may have further to go as this news sinks in), so this news should be good for dollar earning companies like Centamin.
I have my opinion about whether, in general, this is good for the country or not, but I'll keep it to myself.

Put yourself in the shoes of the institutions (including brokerages) that were offered the shares at 175p.
Let's say there were ten of them. Eight of them may well have thought that Synairgen is an excellent long term investment.
But you can bet your life that two of them looked at the offer with a cynical eye, and reckoned they could flip the shares onto the open market for an almost instant low-risk 10% profit. IMO, these are the shares that are being sold off right now.
Most probably the share price will get dragged down by the sheer volume of shares on offer. I don't think we will see 175p; the investment case for SNG is too strong. But 185p, yes, quite possibly.

The underwriters of the Rights Issue won't have expected to be left with stock. They will have hoped to earn their fee and make a clean exit. That's how they make their money.
In the event of a "failed" rights issue like this, most underwriters will look to sell as soon as possible and take the loss, rather than hold onto the shares and hope they recover. Their effective break-even price will be about 11p (12p minus their fee) in old money. So they may well be cursing that they made this deal.
In short, £18m or so of stock is looking for a buyer. And the market is doing what it always does when it senses a distressed or motivated seller - seeing just how low it can push the price...

There are two possibilities for the selling, IMO:
1) An institutional investor has made the decision to sell out, and is offloading in volume, regardless of price;
2) The underwriters of the Rights Issue have been left with a substantial quantity of shares, and they are selling (even at a loss) to unwind their position.
I don't think the selling is PI driven. Or driven by shorters, either. (But, finally, nobody knows for sure, of course, so I could be wrong).

In the event that some kind of Brexit deal is finally agreed, possibly later today, consensus seems to be that the pound will strengthen by about 3%. Logically this would push down the sterling share price of all dollar earning companies - including Centamin.
Still, after all this time spent going around in circles, it feels unlikely that a Brexit deal will ever be reached...

By the looks of it, the professionals have moved on from shorting Saga. They can work out that this company isn't going bust - as long as a functional Covid vaccine is approved for use in the next few months or so, which is highly likely.
As for some of the amateurs playing with CFDs and spread bets on this board, well, it's their money to lose how they wish.
It's worth comparing Saga's position with that of Cineworld (CINE). Saga's debts are rated B1, Cine's CCC+. That's a big difference. And Cine has a huge number of declared shorts, shorts which are presumably riding all the way to the seemingly inevitable debt-for-equity swap; whilst Saga has no declared shorts at all.
That's the market talking right there. You just have to listen sometimes.

There are no publicly disclosed short positions on Saga - see Shorttracker. The positions that were open have closed.
The pros have already worked out that Saga is going to survive. They are all shorting Cine now, which is a slam dunk short, if you're into that sort of thing.
You can see from this board that there are a few amateurs with spread bet positions against Saga. Fools and their money, I guess...

I still can't buy or sell - I'm with AJ Bell.
I hope somebody pays with their job for this. It's pure incompetence.
Why couldn't they suspend the share for a day or two whilst they put the consolidation into orderly effect?

AJ Bell not allowing any kind of trading.

Don't Saga have a cruise scheduled starting on February 21st? To the Canaries, I believe.
This is from memory, so I could be wrong.

Hi Joe!
Thanks for posting that.
I was about to write (but without a source) that GSK/Sanofi are not in the first wave of candidate vaccines.
I guess some people must have gone short here. In the very short term (i.e. days) it might pay off. But who knows exactly when the tide will turn?

Hi Pokerchips!
The various serious vaccine candidates are progressing through Phase 3 trials, and the results of the first six or so (both Western and Chinese) should come in sometime in November. They will most likely to be shown to work, if not perfectly - all indications point that way.
The Russian vaccine is a silly PR stunt by Putin designed to make it look like Russian medicine isn't a joke. It's miles behind the Western and Chinese candidates and it will probably never work.
Given the time needed to roll out a vaccine at scale, I'm not quite sure that cruising will start up again in February. But it will be close. Maybe a month or two later.
As soon as one of the vaccines announces positive Phase 3 results, the share price here will rocket, of course. It might even do 100% in a day. That's what the markets do, they discount the future.

Hi Ragnar!
As far as I understand, they are - in effect - looking at trying to turn Volspruit into a new dump operation style site. They'll get a contract miner in to dig out the higher grade ore, and run it through their existing technology to create a concentrate similar to the one they currently produce, which they'll then truck out to be smelted and separated. (At least, that's what I think Jaco was saying!)
I'd add, that their mass separation technology should work for other metal tailings, not just PGMs. I do wonder if they haven't looked at reprocessing gold tailings, for instance.

Hi Crooty!
Agree. If Shoezone can't make it through, then nobody on the High Street can.
It also helps that they are the cheapest shoe retailer around. People can stop buying high fashion / luxury items.
But, finally, kids need shoes; that demand isn't going away.

Hi NewSid!
Big picture, I agree with you, but this share needs good news to help clear the overhang left over by the not-fully-taken-up Rights Issue.
Note how there are still no declared shorts on this share - see ShortTracker.
I'd suggest to the current BoD (excluding Sir Roger) this would be a good moment to show some faith in the company by buying shares.