Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Isn't it just the effect of the global stock sell off?
Everything is down.

Hi Sotolo!
Your Whitman quote is a line I use all the time (to ennoble my humble indecisions and vacillations). Always beware the man of one book, or of one fixed idea!
My best guess is that there is a fall still to come in the US stock market (high yield (junk) bonds indicate as much), and that fall will drag down gold some more, at least initially. Note how the US markets often take a turn for the worse at 14.30 (their time); that's when the margin calls hit and investors are forced to liquidate assets (including selling their gold/ silver ETFs) to meet them. I make it that US investors are as overextended as US valuations are overstretched.
Once that selling pressure is washed out, IMO bargain hunters will step in and gold will rebound strongly, just as it did back in March. I don't think we're quite there yet, though. But if the US election turns into a bitter legal wrangle, (not to mention if China or Iran attempt to take advantage of the chaos in Washington), then I expect new all-time highs for gold in mid-November.
As a side-note, it's noticeable how Centamin is "outperforming" other gold shares on this downdraft. I assume that's due to expectations regarding the licence in Egypt, but it could be that we have a buyer building a stake behind the scenes (and if so, is that just a typical institution investor or could it be Barrick?)

Mali news latest...
https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2020/9/22/mali-military-leader-asks-for-end-to-ecowas-economic-sanctions

Hi Sotolo!
Yes, I'm planning to reinvest in gold (but maybe not so much in silver).
And my favourite gold miner is still Centamin (debt free, cash rich, stable, dividend paying, superb geological resource etc, you know the spiel...)
The "when" is tricky. How much more can the dollar strengthen? How much hot money still needs to be washed out of the gold ETFs? How much does the stock market need to fall before the Fed and Congress are panicked into a new round of stimulus (especially given the current full-on political warfare in Washington)?
I don't quite know the answer to those questions now. But it's probably not tomorrow.
BTW, it would serve me right if Barrick did make a bid for Centamin soon, and I lost out by not being invested. That's a risk I'm taking by trying to time the markets like this. But I got it right back in March, and (lucky fool that I am) I'm hoping to get it right again now.

A little off-topic, perhaps, but I thought I'd post this excellent article here:
www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/the-election-that-could-break-america/ar-BB19kN77
I think the nightmare scenario that it outlines is actually quite likely to come to pass in November. Any road, I'll be investing accordingly... in gold, and partly in Centamin.

Hi Iceberg!
Perhaps because BHP (or any other major) could raise the finance to build the mine in about five minutes flat, and because they have people on staff who have built and operated similar mines in the past, and who are world experts at it?
Just a humble guess...

You don't seem to understand the difference between topcos and subsidiaries, Quady. (This comes through time and again in your posts).
Every day the owners of Solgold and Cornerstone change as their shares are traded openly in the public markets, yet the ENSA arrangement does not change. All that happens when a company (Solgold or Cornerstone) is taken over is that its shares change hands wholesale rather than retail. The topco continues to exist, and all its obligations and rights remain unaltered, including its relationship with subsidiaries like ENSA.
And, yes, of course a major would be much quicker in taking Alpala to production. To argue otherwise is simply perverse.
I'm trying not to post on this board as the amount of misinformation here is too much to fight. But sometimes it all gets too much...

Hi Pinot Noir!
Thanks for the source. 15th October it is.
Why do Cornerstone keep getting the date wrong by four days?

Hi Sotolo!
For what it's worth, I think the US stock market has a fair way to fall. To keep it at the current artificially elevated levels requires further fiscal and monetary stimulus, which currently is bogged down in politics. I believe we will see at least one dramatic market fall (5% in a day+) to "force" the Fed and US Congress into supplying further stimulus. Initially, that will be good for the US dollar as money flows into the safety of US treasury bonds. And gold will fall some ways further ($1750???).
Then, once the fiscal and monetary stimulus is supplied, gold will rise again on fears of monetary debasement and inflation. IMO, past current all-time highs.
That's how I see the big picture right now. I'm almost entirely in cash.
As a side-note, I still think it is more than possible that Barrick are eyeing up Centamin for a takeover. So by being out at the moment, I'm risking missing out on that chance.

Source?

Minor quibble...
Why does everybody here keep writing that BHP are free from their standstill on October 15th?
Cornerstone keep stating in public (over and over) that the date is October 19th.
Which date is right?

https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-09-21/B2Gold-says-Mali-political-situation-apos-headed-in-the-right-direction.html

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/sep/21/airbus-reveals-plans-zero-emission-aircraft-fuelled-hydrogen

Hi Stoodio!
Big picture - you're right, of course.
But remember how far and fast SLP fell back in March. And the company was making money like crazy back then as well.
The question is whether this stock market drop is a one-day wonder, or whether it triggers widespread margin calls and forced liquidations. If it's the latter, then the drop can start to feed on itself.

I also suffered from the AJ Bell outage this morning - though luckily I was already over 90% in cash. Maybe it is time to transfer loyalty to HL, as Prof suggests.
To be honest, I'm not sure where the markets are headed at the moment. So far we have seen very little forced liquidation activity, which means that gold could still rise as the wider stock market falls. But, but, but...
The US elections, in particular, could get very, very, very ugly indeed.

Hi Stoodio!
All is well in SLP's little world, yes.
But I'd be wary of events in the big world. There is a lot bad news brewing out there. And like it or not, if the whole stock market plummets, SLP's share price will fall as well.
I'm going to give it a few days before buying on the drop this time.

Hi Ragnar!
Yes, that's how I read it as well. I've been wondering where all the shares have been coming from over the last few weeks - now we know!
All in all, I'd categorise this RNS as corporate self-harm. Disappointing.

Hi Razor's Edge!
It's quad witching day today as well. So expect turbulence later.

Johnson Matthey (JMAT) have an interesting RNS out this morning, touting their expertise in hydrogen technology and offering a seminar - remembering the key role that platinum and minor PGMs like iridium play in hydrogen hydrolysis and fuel cell technology. It's well worth a read.
Anybody know how to invest directly in iridium? There doesn't seem to be a dedicated ETF. It's one of my very long term commodity tips. (The other is phosphates for fertilizers.)

Courtesy of Nimrod on the SLP board, here's some PGM price research:
www.heraeus.com/media/media/hpm/doc_hpm/precious_metal_update/palladium_standard/Heraeus_The_Palladium_Standard_2020.pdf
Some notes:
1. Heraeus makes platinum to be in surplus, in contrast with the WPIC report a couple of weeks back, which made platinum in deficit due to supply constraints. I don't know where the truth lies.
2. In contrast, all the analysts that I've read agree that palladium is in mild deficit this year, and rhodium in severe deficit.
3. Report contains interesting section on iridium and ruthenium and their potential importance to the hydrogen economy.