Member Info for TigerByTheTail

www.kitco.com/news/2020-11-12/Bunker-Hill-Mine-s-PEA-due-in-Q1.html

I am not adding here because of the proposed South African chrome tax. There is talk of it being set at a rate of 40%, so it could have a major effect on SA chrome exports.
I have more questions than answers right now. Will the tax be brought in at all? Will it actually do the ferrochrome business any good, as intended (I doubt it)? What volume of China's current South African chrome imports could be substituted by imports from Zimbabwe, Turkey, and other countries? Will China respond bureaucratically or diplomatically in some manner to the proposed tax?
I get that the tax might be good for Glencore and Samancor (and by extension SLP). I get that Tharisa will not be the worst affected chrome miner, thanks to its dual product business model. (JLP will be hit harder, IMO).
But there are too many unknowns for me to take on more risk here. For now, I'll just hold what I have.

Hi Simplicity!
I suspect we have the usual "reserve" / "resource" translation error from Arabic. If so, that would mean that Centamin did meet that condition.
All in all, I'll go with management's statement that they have applied for the licences.

OK, this is now a conundrum... gold is falling but CEY is staging an intraday recovery.
And we know a decision over the licenses is due from Egypt.
Hmm...

BTW, in rather concerning news, Pfizer's CEO used the spike in its share price caused by the vaccine news to offload $5m in its stock. Not encouraging.
As for CEY, unless there is something out there that I don't know about, I think sentiment here has become too extreme. Gold is still over $1,850!

Well, I hope I'm buying at the bottom. Surely, I must be...

LSE is one thing.It's agree service, after all.
But I've been having massive problems with my broker (AJ Bell). I know Hargreaves Lansdowne have been having difficulties as well. It's a real warning for the future - as soon as the market becomes volatile, online brokerages collapse under the strain.
Anyway, does anybody have any theories to explain CEY's peculiar share price action today? Gold is up, other gold stocks aren't doing all that badly, but CEY is still falling...

Hi Roxbury!
No, it's more complicated than that - remember the company received a substantial capital injection from the rights issue, so it isn't in the same position it was before the dilution.
IMO, the best way is simply to narrate what happened. Sir Roger bought 20% of the share capital at 405p equivalent. There was a rights issue, and he took up his allocation in full at 180p equivalent, and partially underwrote the rights issue as well, netting more shares at 180p. All in all, that's a hell of a vote of confidence in a company's future coming from a Chairman!
And it does kind of suggest that anything under 180p should be seen as mega cheap, especially now that cruising and travel is back on for 2021.

27p x 15p = 405p. All correct.
Having taken that stake, Sir Roger then bought in the rights issue as well at 180p equivalent, so lowering his average. But all Saga shareholders had the chance to do that.
It really is something this is still trading at lower than the rights issue price given that a resumption of cruising in March is now very clearly on the cards.

Hi Prof!
For the little that it is worth, my base case is that we are not done with the selling yet.
Chinese and Indian consumers and the world's central banks have stopped buying gold, and the high prices of gold and silver were being sustained almost entirely by Western investor ETF buying. Some of that "hot" money will now flow out of precious metals into stocks etc., pulling the price down. In my mind I have a figure of $1,750 as a bottom.
From there, gold will slowly rebuild based on monetary debasement and fear of inflation. But it may take some time.

Azerbaijan admits it shot down Russian helicopter...
https://en.trend.az/azerbaijan/politics/3332017.html

Hi Ragnar!
I think today got pretty exciting in the end!
Good to see how palladium and rhodium haven't moved despite the bottom falling out of the gold and silver markets. Even platinum has held up pretty well, all things considering.

This should turnaround now there is a vaccine for Covid.
Good well-run company.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russian-military-helicopter-shot-down-azerbaijan-forces-over-armenia-2-pilots-killed

The market is still clearing the overhang from the not fully taken up rights issue, I think.
IMO, once all the "new" shares are placed with long term holders, this should move up into the 200s.

Well, my previous post aged badly!
I hope today wasn't too awful for anybody invested on gold and silver miners. It was one heck of a sector rotation!

Hi Sotolo!
(I'll reply here, so I don't get trolled on the Centamin board).
The truth is, I made a bit of a hash of things last week. I knew I should buy HOC a week ago, and I didn't, as I was waiting for the US elections to work themselves out. I did buy a few CEY, and I'm up there, but not by nearly so much. I still intend to buy some HOC, but I'll wait for the price to come back to me first.
I'm doing pretty well on platinum group metals, though. The Amplats refinery shutdown is limiting supply into a market that was already in deficit (esp. with rhodium and palladium), so I'm hopeful for more to come from that play.

Azerbaijan is announcing the capture of a lot more territory in Karabakh and the Occupied Territories:
https://en.trend.az/azerbaijan/politics/3331724.html
(This is an Azeri propaganda website, but its previous reports of Azeri advances have proven to be correct).
I have the impression that the Armenian forces are now broken, and this is now a "wrapping up" operation. If the Armenians do make a last stand, it will be in Stepanakert, but it all seems a bit futile.

The potential blow, at 0.25 hectares, is about the same size as the original Marsfontein mine, isn't it?
If it's a repeat of that find, then this share will rocket to the moon and beyond.

HI Mr Tibbles!
My take on it is that Biden's election means that a "hard Brexit" is now impossible. If Johnson were to go down that route, Biden would tell him that there would be no trade deal with the US, either. We'd be completely friendless and alone.
Johnson has no choice now but to concede to the EU's terms and to sign up to whatever deal they are offering. I'd expect that to happen in the next couple of weeks.
Before anybody complains, this post is relevant to CEY as any kind of functional deal with the EU will cause sterling to jump, with a knock-on effect to the the POG in £.