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https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-11-17/Platinum-market-to-see-more-than-1-million-ounce-deficit-in-2020-World-Platinum-Council.html

I'm wondering if those three blocks weren't removed from the open licence round so that they could be granted directly to Centamin under the same terms as the existing mining licence (i.e. with the profit share arrangement with EMRA).
The blocks have historical mine workings on them, so they must be considered highly prospective. (And then some, IMO). And - if you put yourself in the shoes of an Egyptian bureaucrat - such an arrangement would make sense. (More money for EMRA, trusted partner, nearby working mine, etc.)
This is speculative, of course; but it's my best guess to explain the facts as we know them...

Hi Mr Tibbles!
Thanks for the update.
For myself, I'm particularly interested in the blocks near Sukhari, including the three highly prospective blocks immediately south of Sukhari that were so mysteriously removed from the licence round. Grade is king, as they say - high grade finds within trucking distance of Sukhari would dramatically improve the long term economics of the mine.

Hi Ragnar!
The lack of liquidity here is something of a circular problem.
The family / existing major shareholders won't want to sell at the current undervalued share price. So the liquidity can't increase until the share price increases. But the share price can't increase as potential new investors are put off by the current lack of liquidity!
And around and around the roundabout we go...

Judging by this board this morning, we may be at or near the point of maximum shareholder pain. I only bought back in at 117p, and even I am in despair about Centamin's prospects!
But gold is steady at about $1,900. And, as always, the best time to buy is when blood is running in the streets...

THS now 75p vs. SLP at 77p per share. Or, more seriously, THS market cap now LESS than SLP's - £201m to £206m.
IMO, this is crazy. SLP are a brilliant company, no question, but THS's operations are simply much larger. And they don't have a LOM issue.
Surely, the "correct" mcap ratio between SLP and THS should be something like 1:1.5 or 1:2?

Hi Jammer!
I think you need to check your facts again.

Does this have a patent? Or any kind of intellectual property protection?
The basic idea is simple enough. And it's been known for decades that copper has antiviral properties. So what's to stop the Chinese ripping this idea off and turning out cheaper copycat masks?

Hi Cowichan!
I'd guess that the Semafo and Teranga boards were convinced that the new "combined Endeavour major" would trade at a premium to the value of its three original constituent parts. Also,Semafo, in particular, had some pretty serious problems in Burkino Faso.
Still, I won't be buying Endeavour's shares when it lists in London. I wouldn't trust its CEO as far as I could throw him.
Separately, I really do wonder how long Centamin can hold onto its own independence with its share price at 112p or so and the POG at $1,900 or so.

HI Cowichan!
And going to list in London with a premium listing, looking for entry to FTSE100!

Hi RazorsEdge!
Judging by the weak share price action over the last few days, I think we may have a persistent seller - perhaps an institution rebalancing their stake.
Let's hope for an RNS in the morning!

https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/chrome-export-tax-a-positive-step-special-electricity-dispensation-now-needed-steve-phiri-2020-11-16/rep_id:4136
Since Sylvania are partnered with integrated chrome miner / ferrochrome producer Samancor, IMO the overall impact of the proposed tax (if introduced) will be positive to neutral for them. The impact on dual-product chrome / PGM miner Tharisa (THS) will be at best neutral. Jubilee (JLP), who rely on the small chrome miners mentioned in the article for much of their processing supply, could be hurt badly.

Long article on the pros and the cons of the proposed chrome tax:
https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/chrome-export-tax-a-positive-step-special-electricity-dispensation-now-needed-steve-phiri-2020-11-16/rep_id:4136

Hi Sands,
Yes, I was. And no, not really. I still think Bunker Hill is an ill-thought out adventure.
But - big picture - it's not a lot of money at risk. And it doesn't alter the basic investment case here; which is that Hummingbird (at 32.5p with gold at near $1900/oz!) is very very cheap for what the company has in Mali, Guinea, and Liberia.
When the seller (Sustainable?) finally clears, IMO this should rerate into the mid 40s. That's a potential 30%-40% gain!

Er, this company has no debt and $300m in the bank. And a working gold mine. So what "funding" will CEY need?
And yes, at a guess this news will make a difference to the share price; though maybe only when it is confirmed officially.
It certainly should; this ground is highly prospective for gold. The ore body at Sukhari is considered one of the best in the world; who knows how many other Sukhari style deposits are out there in the Eastern Desert?

IMO, there is no real reason for the seasonality.
Due to holidays in SA, Q1 and Q4 are normally a little better than Q2 and Q3, but it's not a huge deal.
I guess we are waiting for Q2 results at the end of January, and then the interims in February, which should be accompanied by a special ("metals bonus price") dividend.
As always, some investors will start to buy in a few weeks before the announcements are due. Maybe that is what causes the seasonal trend.

What I'm hoping for...
1. A new concession - obviously. I trust that Centamin have been sending geologists out into the desert to collect rock samples for years, so they should know exactly what to bid for.
2. News about the three (probably highly prospective) blocks of land immediately south of Sukhari that were mysteriously removed from the bidding round. Could it be that they are to be attached to Sukhari under the terms of the old (profit-sharing) mining licence? Since grade is king, some decent discoveries there could increase production (and lower costs) at Sukhari for years to come.
3. I'm also hoping that the award of a new concession acts as a trigger for the resolution of the West African exploration prospects. Perhaps a sale or a joint venture would be best now?
4. Now we know that Barrick and B2Gold are also bidders, what odds that Centamin end up being taken over by one of these two? The. business case for such a merger / take-over is very strong!

Many thanks, Siko.

Hi Ragnar!
That's my thought as well - China will treat South Africa as a second Australia, and punish it with tariffs on their imports.
IMO, this chrome tax is a really bad thought out move. The thing to do is to fix Eskom!

Hi Mr Tibbles!
Thanks for sharing.
It occurs to me that the final decision about what to do with the West African assets may be waiting on the outcome of the Egyptian licence round. If Centamin DO obtain new ground in Egypt, then disposing of the West African assets in some way (outright sale, bringing in an earn in partner, etc.) would be a much easier decision to make.
With the benefit of hindsight, it's obvious how much Centamin were struggling under Pardey's regime, and also how Sukhari was high-graded by the former COO in his quest for the top job a year ago. Hopefully, those days are behind us now.