Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Hi Auson!
Just putting some concerns out there.
Aren't Barnier and Frost now meeting in person? Since I live in Kent, I sincerely hope they make some kind of even vaguely workable deal soon. Otherwise the whole county is going to turn into a giant lorry park.
A hard no deal Brexit would, of course, be good for Centamin, as it would send the value of the pound down (perhaps to $1.20). It might even cause a full scale sterling crisis - lucky us!

Hi WorkingStiff!
Thanks for providing the definition for those who don't understand.
Pavel's not nearly a big enough fish to get the Investigative Committee to do his bidding like this. That's reserved for only the top oligarchs in full favour with the regime. IMO, the squabbling has attracted the interest of a powerful third party, who sees an opportunity to make claims on some / all of POG's assets. (Remember, the outcome here will quite likely be the legal separation of POG's Russian assets and subsidiaries from the topco. We're not talking about a takeover in a Western sense. More a seizure.)
This is Russia - "the strong take what they can and the weak suffer what they must" (as Herodotous wrote a long time ago).

Hi Sotolo!
I've decided to wait a couple of weeks before making a decision on buying back in or not.
Firstly, it now looks like we'll get a Brexit deal (of sorts) sometime around 12th November. That will likely push up the value of sterling (by 5%?), and so drive down the value of dollar earning companies like Centamin.
Secondly, and more importantly, the US election is 3rd November. One possible outcome is that Biden wins but the Republicans keep control of the Senate. That would scupper hopes for any meaningful US stimulus, and so push down the price of gold. Another possible outcome is a bitterly contested election, which might be enough to cause a panicked deleveraging from all financial assets, like we saw back in March.
I'm happy to wait both of those potential developments out. Remember both Wheaton and Kinross are seeking London listings, so they may suck investment oxygen away from Centamin as well.
The only reason I can see to be in a hurry to put money in Centamin is the chance of a takeover. Endeavor's original offer for Centamin was a "nil premium merger". If they repeated the exact same offer today it would come with a 30% premium, considering the relative movements in the two companies' share price since then. I wonder if that's not how this story ends sometime in the next year.

IMO, the outlook is for more war in the near future.
The Azeris have made big advances in the south along the plain of the River Araxes / Aras, effectively recapturing 3 of the 7 provinces in the Occupied Territories. The war is highly popular in Azerbaijan, and the Azeris will be looking for a complete victory. In a potentially substantial escalation, Turkey has also expressed willingness to send troops to help in the fight, should the Azeris request them.
IMO, the Armenians have two cards left to play:
1) replace their current pro-Western PM with somebody more acceptable to Putin, who might then be persuaded to offer them more support. At the moment, the Russians have left the Armenians spinning in the wind.
2) Lob a few rockets at the oil and gas pipelines and their pumping plants to escalate the conflict, hoping that by raising the stakes that way they can force the Azeris into serious peace talks.

For those unused to Russian "biznez", this morning's RNS is truly a bad sign.
Behind all this is "raiderstvo" - someone very powerful wants the assets and has their hand firmly pressed down on one of the scales of justice.

I just did some fingers and thumbs maths, and I've come up with a current cash-adjusted P/E of around 2.5.
For a well-run highly profitable debt free company.
Bonkers.

Hi Ragnar!
Perhaps Tharisa should reclassify their chrome production as a by-product?
Overall, I still see exceptional value here. That said, I'll wait until after the US elections (3/11) and the outcome of the Brexit talks (c. 12/11 - sterling movement?) before buying more here. Final results aren't until 30/11, so that should work out.
For now, I see real value in cash (and also SLP). IMO, there is a lot of risk out there that the general market isn't pricing in properly.

$14,650 / ounce (JMAT prices).

Rhodium now at $14,650/ounce, according to Johnson Matthey prices.
This is a new all time high, just beating the high of a month ago, which in turn beat the high reached in February, pre-Covid.
Happy days...

Up 17% now. I would classify that as a "boom"!

Good article on current military position...
eurasianet.org/azerbaijan-continues-advance-deeper-into-armenian-held-territory

Hi Colonel and Sotolo!
I'm also wondering this morning why is Centamin so highly rated compared to decent one mine juniors like AAZ, SHG, and HUM.
Yes, Sukhari is a bigger mine with a great geological endowment. But Centamin only own half of it. And, if past and current performance be a fair judge, they are not a top class operator.
And is Egypt so much better a jurisdiction than Azerbaijan, Tanzania, or Mali?

I also sold (at 143p). Fortunately, I didn't have too many shares this time around, and I'd bought in at 147p on the last drop. So not too painful.
In truth, I wasn't expecting such an awful RNS this morning.

Armenian propaganda aside, yes, it does look very much like Azerbaijan is winning this war. As you would expect, considering the relative size and wealth of the two countries involved, and the fact that the Azeris are highly motivated to recover their own illegally occupied territory.

Since Kinross are coming to London soonish, I thought this might be of interest:
https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-10-20/Kinross-Gold-sees-annual-10-year-gold-production-at-2-5-million-gold-equivalent-ounces.html

There is now video of the Azeri flag flying over Zingalan, and Queen Mehriban has posted about its capture on social media, so it must be true.
This still leaves the issue of Nagorno Karabakh itself. But this is a big victory for the Azeris, especially remembering that the 800,000 refugees mostly come from the Occupied Territories, and not from Nagorno Karabakh itself.

https://www.azernews.az/nation/171080.html
Azerbaijan claiming to have taken Zangilan in the Occupied Territories to the south of Nagorno Karabakh. Zangilan is right up against the border of Armenia proper and represents a huge advance. If the report is true, the Armenian forces must be in a state of near collapse on that front.
This was always a mismatch militarily. IMO, this conflict has only a few more days to run before Armenia has to sue for peace.

Hi Sotolo!
Hopefully, Centamin will announce something "new" tomorrow, in addition to the usual production numbers (which may reassure but which won't excite, IMO).
It's been ages since we've had any meaningful exploration updates - at best we've just had a few drill results with no context or any indication that they will ever be monetised. Best of all would be news of a new Egyptian licence.
My intuition is saying that the bad production news (which wasn't really all that awful) is already baked into the price. So any new good news will be rewarded. Otherwise, I'm expecting a flat day.
BTW, very impressed with your Bafta haul! Perhaps if people understood our "biz" a bit better, they would understand our wariness; I've always worked on the principle that everything that can go wrong will go wrong.

"Highly conditional" probably meant that they were demanding some kind of support from Saga's creditors for the business - like debt extensions, rollovers, other favourable treatment, even a debt for equity swap.
Anyway, the opportunity (if it ever was one) has been missed now. And there's no point in crying over spilt milk.

Here's the same story as reported in the Guardian. It's big enough to make a difference in the IAG share price, so I don't see why it shouldn't help Saga as well.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/20/rapid-covid-test-heathrow-aiiport-coronavirus-cost-italy-hong-kong